WPAC: JANGMI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
131.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST
OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY AROUND THE LLCC. A 271229Z METOP-
B IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LIMITED, WEAKER BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 271316Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT EASTERLIES DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS, WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Massive flooding likely ...

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.0N 130.3E TO 9.1N 125.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271900Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 129.2E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6N
128.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST
OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 271655Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE, FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 271316Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT EASTERLIES
DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS, WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD NORTHEAST MINDANAO, WHICH WILL ALLOW
ABOUT 24 HOURS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Likely TD
99W INVEST 141228 0000 8.1N 128.1E WPAC 30 1002

[xtyphooncyclonex]

HERE WE GO!

23W TWENTYTHREE 141227 1800 7.7N 128.9E WPAC 25 1004

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest GFS shows a tropical storm in 21 hours time crossing extreme northeastern Mindanao (CARAGA) then remains in intensity during its passage over the Visayas. It later strengthens then becomes perhaps a severe tropical storm; as it nears Vietnam, it becomes a typhoon.

Meanwhile, the ECMWF's track shows a very low and weak tracker which intensifies to a tropical storm WNW of Zamboanga in 3 days time. IMO this is too conservative and too far south..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Again, updated.

23W TWENTYTHRE 141228 0000 8.1N 128.1E WPAC 30 1002

[cycloneye]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271921Z DEC 14//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 8.1N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.1N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 8.6N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 9.3N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 9.7N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 10.1N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 10.4N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 10.2N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 9.9N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 8.2N 127.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
571 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
271921Z DEC 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
271930)//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (TWENTY-THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
571 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. A 272303Z SSMIS
IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC.
THIS PROVIDES EVIDENCE THAT THE STRONGER WINDS HAVE ALSO WRAPPED
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER RANGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS (T2.0) FROM RJTD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND THE MSI IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 23W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS EQUATORWARD OF A BREAK IN THE STR. AFTER
TAU 36, TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE WESTERN STR, WHICH IS ANCHORED NORTH OF SOUTHEAST ASIA AND
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TWO MODEL GROUPINGS.
SEVERAL MODELS (JGSM, JENS, EGRR) DEPICT A WEAKER SYSTEM, AND,
CONSEQUENTLY, TRACK TD 23W SOUTHWESTWARD. GFS AND NAVGEM DEPICT A
STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS WESTWARD INTO THE STR. TD 23W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE PHILIPPINES. AS TD 23W EMERGES OVER WATER,
IT IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, HOWEVER,
INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE PEAK
INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, FURTHER INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEAST
SURGE AND WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND,
WHICH WILL TURN THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE SPREAD IN
DYNAMIC MODEL SOLUTIONS.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Organizing. Convection popping up now over the storm's LLC.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Some of the storm's feeder bands have already been impacting the Philippines; particularly Central Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Gusty winds, overcast and dark here in Cebu City.

[euro6208]

WPAC at it again with our 23rd TD of the year!

[euro6208]

JTWC...

TD 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS EQUATORWARD OF A BREAK IN THE STR. AFTER
TAU 36, TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE WESTERN STR, WHICH IS ANCHORED NORTH OF SOUTHEAST ASIA AND
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TWO MODEL GROUPINGS.
SEVERAL MODELS (JGSM, JENS, EGRR) DEPICT A WEAKER SYSTEM, AND,
CONSEQUENTLY, TRACK TD 23W SOUTHWESTWARD. GFS AND NAVGEM DEPICT A
STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS WESTWARD INTO THE STR. TD 23W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE PHILIPPINES. AS TD 23W EMERGES OVER WATER,
IT IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, HOWEVER,
INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE PEAK
INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, FURTHER INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEAST
SURGE AND WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND,
WHICH WILL TURN THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE SPREAD IN
DYNAMIC MODEL SOLUTIONS.//

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This undeniably is a tropical storm. How is this a TD?

MUCH MORE ORGANIZED

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Winds support TS strength, too.

[euro6208]

Landfall near Hinatuan...It's taking a Washi like track through the Islands...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
542 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION WHICH IS
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE PGTW AND RJTD POSITION FIXES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
THE SAME VALUE FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TD 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 23W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 36 AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAK BREAK IN THE STR. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER STR, WHICH IS ANCHORED NORTH OF SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA, AND WILL INDUCE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU
72. TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO WEAK TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL ACROSS MINDANAO BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. AS TD 23W EMERGES OVER MORE
OPEN WATER, IT IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THIS INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, FURTHER INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEAST
SURGE AND WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS SPREAD WITH TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. NAVGEM, GFS AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE REMAIN THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS AND SHOW THE SYSTEM
MAINTAINING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND STRONGLY
INTENSIFYING AFTERWARDS. HOWEVER, THE MESOSCALE MODELS, ALONG WITH
JGSM AND ECMWF, SHOW AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO AS IT DEPICTS THE SYSTEM
GREATLY WEAKENING DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION AND TRACKING MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE JTWC FORECAST
REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THESE TWO SCENARIOS. OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THIS SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

crazy convection

[euro6208]

Tropical storm soon...

TXPQ29 KNES 281532
TCSWNP

A. 23W (NONAME)

B. 28/1432Z

C. 8.4N

D. 127.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...CENTER REMAINS ON EASTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER. SYSTEM IS SHEARED WITH LARGE AREA OF COLD OVERCAST IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LLCC FOR DT=2.0. MET=2.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR RAPID DEVELOPMENT
TREND. PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI