Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[hurricanehunter69]

( A weak El Nino...? ) You would think we have a shot this year.....? At 300 hours.....http://www.twisterdata.com/in ... hive=false

[SeGaBob]

12Z GFS and Parallel GFS both seem to suggest ice/snow for a lot of the Deep South on New Years Day. (It will change though)

12Z GFS (240 hours)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_36.png

12Z Parallel GFS (240 hours)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122212/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_40.png




It needs to come a bit more east for me, but this is still a lot of the South and it's still 10 days away.

[northjaxpro]

My oh my the memories! December 22-23, 1989. The 25th anniversary of a White Christmas from Northeast Florida all the way up to the North Carolina coast. It was unbelievable. The extremely rare treat of finally having arctic air and the active southern stream jet converging just off the immediate Southeast U.S.coast to produce a major winter storm!! I had just over an inch of snow along with about 1/4 inch ice which accumulated from freezing rain which occurred earlier on Dec 22. But the snow totals just to my north were just incredible, setting all time records up along the NC coast. The Charleston, SC NWS office provided a great link below reliving the 25th anniversary of that historic once and a lifetime event to give us and the immediate SE U.S. coastal region a White Christmas. Definitely ranks for me as one of my greatest and most memorable weather experiences I have witnessed.

Links

http://www.weather.gov/media/chs/events ... wstorm.pdf


Video from Jacksonville, FL in the immediate aftermath:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUzNNKy9GIA

[CYCLONE MIKE]

[quote="SeGaBob"]12Z GFS and Parallel GFS both seem to suggest ice/snow for a lot of the Deep South on New Years Day. (It will change though)

12Z GFS (240 hours)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_36.png

12Z Parallel GFS (240 hours)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122212/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_40.png

You're right, will most certainly change. Did the same thing over the weekend. Showed a good looking ice/snow storm over all of LA, then next run poof gone, then next few runs a lot warmer with rain. Probably will end up in the upper 30's with all day rain and north of us in MS will be a foot of snow. Or better yet will actually get the cold with no precip of course.

[SeGaBob]

6Z GFS looks good for Louisiana at 228-240 hours. (for now anyway)

[SeGaBob]

Check out the cold air on the 12Z ECMWF at 192 hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122312/ecmwf_T850a_eus_9.png

[northjaxpro]

Well, if you firmly believe in the GFS, here is the 6Z run from earlier today going out to 18Z on New Year's Day. The southern branch of the jet is active on this run and enough cold air in place to produce frozen precip. This run has snow from Mobile, AL and the extreme western Florida Panhandle northeast through Southern AL, Central GA up into the Piedmont of the Carolinas. This is just a week out, so SeGaBob, with what the GFS is showing, the 540 thickness line gets rather close to you on this run. Expect more changes needless to say with future runs.

Now, I state again, that is IF you believe the GFS, which some on here are skeptical of including yours truly. But, it is interesting nonetheless.

[SeGaBob]

I don't particularly like the GFS either, but it has been showing the most interesting weather every now and then lately. (18z doesn't show snow now.)


By the way, Merry Christmas to you and everyone that reads this.

[Kennethb]

It's a White Christmas after all here in Baton Rouge. There is a nice White Christmas Frost to start the day.

[SeGaBob]

How long will it take for the ridge to weaken so it can actually get cold here? I don't like 60s and 70s this time of year.

[northjaxpro]

How long will it take for the ridge to weaken so it can actually get cold here? I don't like 60s and 70s this time of year.

The ridge is not breaking down anytime soon SeGaBob. It is well entrenched and will only strengthen into next week, especially if the EURO ends up being right. Florida, the Southeast U.S. and much of the U.S. Eastern seaboard will be well above the normal averages for this time of the year. I expect record max temps for many areas going into next week across the East.

So, it will be at least 10 days or possibly longer before we see a pattern change for our region. It is discouraging a bit for me as I want just a little bit of winter in these parts. This pattern is very similar to last year's start to winter which I touched on in the Florida thread. It took over a month before we finally saw a break in the pattern. Eventually, we will have a pattern change, but it looks like we will have to wait it out for awhile once again.

[TheStormExpert]

How long will it take for the ridge to weaken so it can actually get cold here? I don't like 60s and 70s this time of year.

The ridge is not breaking down anytime soon SeGaBob. It is well entrenched and will only strengthen into next week, especially if the EURO ends up being right. Florida, the Southeast U.S. and much of the U.S. Eastern seaboard will be well above the normal averages for this time of the year. I expect record max temps for many areas going into next week across the East.

So, it will be at least 10 days or possibly longer before we see a pattern change for our region. It is discouraging a bit for me as I want just a little bit of winter in these parts. This pattern is very similar to last year's start to winter which I touched on in the Florida thread. It took over a month before we finally saw a break in the pattern. Eventually, we will have a pattern change, but it looks like we will have to wait it out for awhile once again.

What causes this ridge to setup shop every winter? This has been the case for several years now it seems.

The strange thing is it seems that we get more impressive troughs in the summer nowadays verses in the winter, weird huh?

[NDG]

Anybody wanting to see snow New Year's Eve head south west towards Las Vegas and the hills of Southern California

[BigB0882]

I hate this stupid southeast ridge. Last year it caused trouble for us at the very beginning of winter but things changed and they changed in a hurry. At least they did for us in Louisiana, the ridge doesn't have to move much to open the gates for us. What sucks is this year we are already in January (just about) and the ridge looks to be around for a while. It could be February before it finally changes pattern and then we only have a few short weeks to get in on any action and who knows if there will be any arctic intrusions at that time or if the southern jet will still be active.

[northjaxpro]

How long will it take for the ridge to weaken so it can actually get cold here? I don't like 60s and 70s this time of year.

The ridge is not breaking down anytime soon SeGaBob. It is well entrenched and will only strengthen into next week, especially if the EURO ends up being right. Florida, the Southeast U.S. and much of the U.S. Eastern seaboard will be well above the normal averages for this time of the year. I expect record max temps for many areas going into next week across the East.

So, it will be at least 10 days or possibly longer before we see a pattern change for our region. It is discouraging a bit for me as I want just a little bit of winter in these parts. This pattern is very similar to last year's start to winter which I touched on in the Florida thread. It took over a month before we finally saw a break in the pattern. Eventually, we will have a pattern change, but it looks like we will have to wait it out for awhile once again.

What causes this ridge to setup shop every winter? This has been the case for several years now it seems.

The strange thing is it seems that we get more impressive troughs in the summer nowadays verses in the winter, weird huh?

Yeah, that has been the case in recent years. We have been getting these strong upper level troughs across the Eastern CONUS during the summer months, which has effectively prevented tropical cyclones from impacting us in Florida, the Gulf Coast and the East Coast in general. Now, in recent years including now, we have our ole pesky friend, the SE Ridge, that sets up shop in the dead of winter to protect us from the cold. It really is a strange anomaly which we have just been extremely fortunate that Mother Nature is looking out for us Floridians on both ends of the extremes.

I always say this and it holds true: Mother Nature will eventually balance things out eventually. Our luck is going to run out at some point. We are now going on 10 years since the Florida peninsula was impacted by a major hurricane, and now it is approaching 5 years since the last major tank of the NAO to help bring an arctic outbreak to this region. Both of these streaks are just incredible, but you wonder when they both will end?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Have no fear fellow southerners, the gfs is coming to save us. Massive winter storm in deep south showing up once again and yes you guessed it, 10 days out. Just like last week when it was showing this same exact thing for new years.

Dhweather another cat 5 winter storm in gulf

[BigB0882]

Are there signs the southeast ridge may begin giving in or do you think this will just be a repeat of the upcoming event? From your post, I am going with the latter. lol

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm saying repeat. Bet my house and cars by Tuesday no later the models will pull a 360 and show warm and rain, just like we had yesterday.

[LaBreeze]

I'm saying repeat. Bet my house and cars by Tuesday no later the models will pull a 360 and show warm and rain, just like we had yesterday.

Of course, why would they show anything else? I'm with you on this one Cyclone.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well didnt take near as long as i thought. Only two runs in for a complete flop. Guess I really meant a 180 flip. No winter storm in sight now. This reminds me so much of hurricane season, every week to ten days the gfs shows a storm in the gulf hitting around new Orleans. And what comes of it, nothing. Same as this. Except now instead of persistent trough making conditions horrible for storm development, we have persistent se high pressure flexing it muscle and in complete control of the gulf. Very strange, one would expect the exact opposite this time of year.