Texas Winter 2014-2015

[SouthernMet]

exactly...

[gatorcane]

Seems that the global models keep pushing back the REAL SIGNIFICANT cold for Texas (except the Panhandle and extreme Western areas). Now I see it coming in the week of Jan 5th. There looks to be some cold for later this week but nothing like what the models were showing last week.

[ronyan]

Seems that the global models keep pushing back the REAL cold for Texas. Now I see it coming in the week of Jan 5th. There looks to be some cold for later this week but nothing like what the models were showing last week.

Getting cold into TX is easy if 1050+ mb high comes into Montana. I'm still very skeptical of the relatively warm model runs this week for the state. Take a look at the Nothern Hemisphere view of the GFS (which is top-down centered on the north pole), some very cold air is starting to flow from the pole into Canada and this should continue through the first week of Jan.

[stormlover2013]

models have a hard time with this type of cold, look at today it was supposed to get to 49 degrees where I live and its not even getting up to 45 degrees today and this cold air this week will prob be about 10 degrees colder than what is forecasted

[TheProfessor]

This set up could end up being very bad, The latest model runs are showing a quite of bit of QPF for North and East Texas, if the models do underestimate the cold and we get ice or snow on the ground on New Years it could prevent moderation on Friday, which could cause a very serious deal this weekend especially with people leaving from visiting family and The Cowboys Game and also the people coming down for the College Playoffs.

[BigB0882]

Posted this in the deep south thread. Since it affects you guys first thought I should share the wealth. The gfs saves winter

Do you think the southeast ridge is going to budge enough for the cold to make it our way in SELA or is this just a fantasy run?

[vbhoutex]

37F and steady rain at our place in W. Houston. Wonderful Winter weather if you like a COLD RAIN!!

[SouthernMet]

After seeing the 15z SREF, everyone in the DFW area needs to stay tuned for possible icing new years eve night... Bares watching imo

[Shoshana]

No sleet observed here in N Austin near P'ville. Just cold drizzle and 36F. Got a weather station, waiting for it to stop raining before I go put it up.... hopefully tomorrow.

Got mine up a couple days ago and I am loving it.

I've been thinking about getting a weather station for a while. Any advice on which one to get?

No advice - this is my first one. I got it as a gift. It's from Costco and it's an 'all in one'. It seems nice. I'm going to install it on a fencepost out in the yard. Nice thing is that it's wireless. Hopefully will be more reliable than the Atomic Clock temp thing we have, it's decided it will tell us the outside temps whenever it feels up to it...

[ronyan]

No sleet observed here in N Austin near P'ville. Just cold drizzle and 36F. Got a weather station, waiting for it to stop raining before I go put it up.... hopefully tomorrow.

Got mine up a couple days ago and I am loving it.

I've been thinking about getting a weather station for a while. Any advice on which one to get?

If you're on a lower budget I'd recommend the Ambient Weather WS-1400-IP Observer. It's an all-in-one wireless unit with rain gauge, wind, pressure, humidity, solar radiation sensor, uv index. For about $150 you can get that and link it to wunderground.com. It's got a receiver box that plugs in straight to the router port via ethernet and has it's own IP on your local network. I had it setup and reporting to wunderground in about 30 minutes, very easy overall and all of the measurements can be calibrated with offset values.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Remember 850mb is not the surface (~5000ft), and fronts tend to be colder at the surface level.

I understand the cold air is denser and it stays near the surface but even the 925 MB level doesnt go below 4C according to the GFS. I think it will be much colder than that

[orangeblood]

After seeing the 15z SREF, everyone in the DFW area needs to stay tuned for possible icing new years eve night... Bares watching imo

No doubt about it, some of the SREF members have temps in the mid to lower 20's with between 0.1-0.25 inch QPF....that would cause major problems across the DFW metroplex

[KatDaddy]

Sunny skies, 47F, 37% humidity, 22F dewpoint, and very light winds. Amazing how nice 47F feels in the sun. Awaiting the TX AFDs to see if anything has changed.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Can anyone tell me what the latest models are showing for the Austin area around New Years?

[ronyan]

Can anyone tell me what the latest models are showing for the Austin area around New Years?

The 12z GFS shows highs of mid to upper 30s on New Year's Day for Austin. Very little precip indicated until the 2nd.

[Ralph's Weather]

Only made it up to 42 this afternoon with temps back into the upper 30s now with a few more showers headed this way. The SREF seems to be good about picking up on these type events that the other models do not see at this range. It makes sense to me for us to get some impulses embedded in the SW flow ahead of the main trough that looks to arrive late in the week. These initial impulses have the best shot at giving us frozen precip and NYE night is one of the worst possible times for it with so many people out late.

[Portastorm]

Can anyone tell me what the latest models are showing for the Austin area around New Years?

The 12z GFS shows highs of mid to upper 30s on New Year's Day for Austin. Very little precip indicated until the 2nd.

Interesting to note that the 15z SREF shows freezing rain/drizzle in the AUS area New Years Eve morning. Only model I know of at this point which suggests this.

[ndale]

The WPC Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Guidance is now showing possibility of freezing rain for central TX starting Wed and by Thur it covers a large portion of Tx.

[ronyan]

The 18z NAM has a 1066mb high in Montana in 45 hrs. Not sure of the NAM's skill at forecasting highs but that would be incredible. Other models are a bit "weaker" with the high around 1059-1060mb.

[stormlover2013]

What is the gfs showing?