ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ptarmigan]

If and is a huge if right now El Nino comes it would be a Modoki one as Nino 1+2 has crashed to very La Nina threshold.

Data as of 06z:

Nino 1+2=In La Nina threshold -0.828C

Nino 3=Barely in El Nino threshold+0.504C

Nino 3.4=In Neutral at +0.416C

Nino 4=Is always above +0.5C Now at +0.838C

I have seen Modoki El Nino where Region 1+2 is quite cool.

If there is a Modoki El Nino, the following Atlantic Hurricane Seasons is usually active like in 1964, 1969, 1995, 2003, 2005, and 2010.

[cycloneye]

Ptarmigan,thanks for coming to this thread and provide the historic perspective angle. Don't hesitate and continue to add to the ENSO discussions.

[dexterlabio]

The MJO is over the IO/Maritime which does not favor warming in the Nino regions...the renewed MJO pulse has been stubborn staying over that area for some days now...


There are still large areas of warmer-than-average SST's in the Western pacific, failed to be transported by the previous MJO/Kelvin wave. I noticed this year when the MJO pulse comes out strong in the WPAC, it immediately weakens and enters the "death circle" as it reaches the eastern Pacific. Maybe that's what we're seeing right now, the warm water transport only reaches the central Pacific and causes the Nino 1+2 region to drop way below Nino threshold (as what the daily's show).

[cycloneye]

Data as of 12z:

At least the drop at Nino 3.4 stopped in the 12z update but is below +0.5C and Nino 1+2 continues on a nosedive well inside La Nina threshold.

Nino 1+2=-0.817C

Nino 3.4=+0.437C

[cycloneye]

As long the ESPI continues way in negative,is another sign towards no El Nino.

For those who may not know what ESPI is here is a complete explanation of it. When is negative is not favorable for El Nino and positive favors La Nina.

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/ESPIsummary.html

[cycloneye]

Go figure.Now they are going up but still Nino 1+2 is in La Nina Threshold. The yoyo continues but the big picture is unless the atmosphere responds towards El Nino like it wont come.

[cycloneye]

Now this coming from Dr Ventrice is very interesting as he was the first with the Super El Nino chorus.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
CFSv2 Jan forecast has finally caught on that El Nino will not be driving the pattern o/ the U.S. Much more Nina'esk

[Yellow Evan]

Go figure.Now they are going up but still Nino 1+2 is in La Nina Threshold. The yoyo continues but the big picture is unless the atmosphere responds towards El Nino like it wont come.

I would not get too caught up in hourly/daily SST changes.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Go figure.Now they are going up but still Nino 1+2 is in La Nina Threshold. The yoyo continues but the big picture is unless the atmosphere responds towards El Nino like it wont come.

Please do note that those are MINOR and daily changes; not as significant as weekly changes.

[cycloneye]

Go figure.Now they are going up but still Nino 1+2 is in La Nina Threshold. The yoyo continues but the big picture is unless the atmosphere responds towards El Nino like it wont come.

Please do note that those are MINOR and daily changes; not as significant as weekly changes.

Yes,I know but this time it was a fairly good drop in only a few days and that is what caught my eye. Nino 3.4 drop from +0.8C to just below +0.5C in only 4 days. Now let's see how much they rebound especially Nino 1+2.

[cycloneye]

After large and record breaking pool #1 of 2014 in March/April went away then came pool #2 that has been less warm and not as large as the first. Now we watch and see if a new pool moves eastward and be as large as #1 was.

[gigabite]

Arctic sea ice is above one standard deviation.

[cycloneye]

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/150x100q90/673/IW9LA3.jpg
The growth in Arctic sea ice is above one standard deviation.

And what that means for ENSO?

[gigabite]

Looks like a global cooling trend. Nothing happens in isolation. Ocean currents circulate down the coast of California bringing cooler water to the itcz, and diffusion blends that in with equatorial flow. It is a 4 dimensional phenomena. The boundary layers north and south and affect the ESNO anomaly as does the time of the year.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update has Nino 3.4 down to +0.7c and Nino 1+2 down to -0.2c. If Nino 1+2 holds below the El Nino threshold when is declared (If that occurs) it would be a Modoki one.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[NDG]

Not good news for southern Ca if indeed we end up with a weak Modoki.

[cycloneye]

Also what implications to the tropical activity on both EPAC and North Atlantic 2015 seasons a modoki would have.

[cycloneye]

Nino 1+2 continues to crash inside La Nina Threshold making El Nino a Modoki one if is declared.

[Hurricaneman]

probably a season that would be a dangerous one with multiple majors and possible multiple landfalls as 2004 and 1969 would become possible analogs if we get a madoki

For offical forecasts please look at NHC products as I'm just an observer

[cycloneye]

06z update:

Nino 1+2=-0.643c

Nino 3=+0.689c

Nino 3.4=+0.339c

Nino 4=+0.633c