WPAC: JANGMI - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

HUGE RAIN MAKER

Cebu:
-Moderate to heavy intermittent rains becoming more persistent.
-According to Weather Underground, a total of 151 mm is forecast for tomorrow, mostly occurring at the early evening hours.
-Boat trips cancelled

Cagayan de Oro:
-Boat trips cancelled

Hinatuan:



Oroquieta:



Bayugan:

FLOODS

[euro6208]

Next 24 hour rain totals...

[euro6208]

ADT 8.1.4 RAW already at 3.6 and 8.2.1 RAW at 3.5...

[euro6208]

23W TWENTYTHRE 141228 1800 8.5N 126.7E WPAC 35 996

We now have a tropical storm based on consensus 2.5...

TPPN10 PGTW 281832

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (E OF MINDINAO)

B. 28/1732Z

C. 8.37N

D. 126.92E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.5/2.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. WHILE MET YIELDS 1.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/1255Z 8.05N 127.17E MMHS
28/1606Z 8.28N 126.92E GPMI


SCHALIN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Badly underestimated storm.

TXPQ29 KNES 282107
TCSWNP

A. 23W (NONAME)

B. 28/2032Z

C. 8.6N

D. 126.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/TMI/SSMI

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. 6/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.0,
BUT BANDING IS NOT CLEAR CUT. THEREFORE, FT IS BASED ON PT OF 3.5. MET
IS 3.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

28/1540Z 8.5N 127.1E TMI
28/1806Z 8.5N 126.9E SSMI


...VELASCO

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Tokyo estimate (JMA) at 3.9

Hmmmmm...

2014DEC28 200100 3.9 982.3 +4.7 63.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF -82.91 -72.42 UNIFRM N/A N/A 8.80 -126.37 SPRL MTSAT2 24.0

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Based on all estimates, excluding those of agencies, intensity now is at 60 knots.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Anxiously waiting for an upgrade from JMA, as it gets more and more frustrating by the hour. Not only because satellite estimates contradict their estimate, but because that the storm is overland and affecting many people.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

FINALLY

Although the estimates still are very conservative

23W TWENTYTHRE 141229 0000 8.8N 126.0E WPAC 40 993

TS 1423 (JANGMI)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 29 December 2014

<Analyses at 29/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N8°55'(8.9°)
E126°05'(126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°00'(9.0°)
E123°30'(123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°20'(8.3°)
E120°40'(120.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°35'(7.6°)
E118°00'(118.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[euro6208]

23W TWENTYTHRE 141229 0000 8.8N 126.0E WPAC 40 993

Up to 40 knots!

[euro6208]

Made landfall only as a 40 knots system despite dvorak values and ADT as high as 3.5...

Jangmi likely made landfall very close to 60-65 knots 1 min...Unfortunately, all agencies never saw the rapid intensification...

[dexterlabio]

It's moving quite slowly across Northern Mindanao, and very deep convection is still popping near the center. That's what I'm more worried about...

[Alyono]

I'm thinking only about 45 kts right now. I am not seeing anything majorly wrong with the intensity estimates

[euro6208]

Another view of that eye...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Clearly 45-50 kts, not 35-40 kts; eyewall is evident though the storm's structure itself needs some work.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 8.8N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 9.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 9.2N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 9.2N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 9.1N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 8.7N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 8.0N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 6.8N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 125.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST OF
PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z,
292100Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

[euro6208]

Made landfall only as a 40 knots system despite dvorak values and ADT as high as 3.5...

Jangmi likely made landfall very close to 60-65 knots 1 min...Unfortunately, all agencies never saw the rapid intensification...

Agree

Should have been our 12th typhoon of the season. Can't deny real data truth. Oh well we will have to wait to see if it's upgraded postseason. Still a huge rainmaker for the P.I

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Continuous moderate rain pouring over here.

[Alyono]

lets stop overstating the intensity of this. This was not close to typhoon intensity