WPAC: JANGMI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA now ignoring actual radar and wind obs...


They say center is over south tip of Bohol and keeping it 35 kts while JT & PAGASA following actual obs and radar.

[euro6208]

JMA now ignoring actual radar and wind obs...


They say center is over south tip of Bohol and keeping it 35 kts while JT & PAGASA following actual obs and radar.

Are all agencies on holiday break or something?

I wonder how the pro-mets in westernpacificweather doesn't even mentioned it's eye and strong signature when showing a radar of Jangmi...

This is not a weak tropical storm and millions of lives are at risk...

[Alyono]

It is NOT a typhoon. Stop hyping, Euro, or PLEASE use the disclaimer. Tropical storm can and often do have eyewalls.

Now, this may be 50 to 55 kts

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^^indeed...


Good thing there is now forced evacuation in parts of Cebu... i am seeing us hit by the eyewall

[Alyono]

regardless of the intensity, the main impact is rainfall and flooding

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Flooding in our basement/1st floor.

Have to stay on higher levels... Rain getting more and more intense, same goes with the wind.

[Alyono]

could see up to 10 to 12 inches of additional rain in the Cebu area.

[euro6208]

^^indeed...


Good thing there is now forced evacuation in parts of Cebu... i am seeing us hit by the eyewall

Actually the eyewall, which may be discernible by then as it's over Bohol, may pass just south of you guys...But that's just my observation based on it's movement on radar...We'll see...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Despite more rain, the wind is quite strong too.... This is disappointing, putting over 4 MILLION AT RISK

It is very ironic that the JMA's "ADT" is showing at least T3.5, which is at least a severe tropical storm, yet they are showing barely a tropical storm. Wrongly and badly located the storm's center by 40 km.

TS 1423 (JANGMI)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 29 December 2014

<Analyses at 29/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°40'(9.7°)
E124°35'(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

[euro6208]

Big blowup of convection south of the eye right over Bohol...It's getting redder where you are typhooncyclonex...More heavy rain on the way...

[dexterlabio]

If I'm seeing this right, the "proto-eyewall" or center of Jangmi is encircled by deep convection and is right over northern Bohol...and it looks to be tracking towards Central Cebu area atm...whereas the majority of the models and weather agencies forecast the storm to hit the southermost tip of Cebu and south Negros provinces.

[dexterlabio]

whether this is 65knots or 55kts (1-min average), the potential wind damage is almost the same and you can't tell the difference...


I am also surprised with the previous JMA warnings...they can go against their own computer model and satellite analyses...


EDIT: I think PAGASA should make an ammended weather bulletin and add more areas in Northern Visayas and south Bicol region under storm warning signals...

[euro6208]

It is NOT a typhoon. Stop hyping, Euro, or PLEASE use the disclaimer. Tropical storm can and often do have eyewalls.

Now, this may be 50 to 55 kts

Radar has been showing an eye/eyewall for over 12 hours now even microwave supports this...Actually looking it's strongest now...

[euro6208]

Expected to pass south of Cebu...

First mentioned of this...

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR), ALONG WITH RADAR ANIMATION FROM CEBU STATION,
PHILIPPINES, REVEALS THAT TS JANGMI HAS INTENSIFIED AS IT TRACKED
ACROSS THE SURIGAO STRAIT AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND BETTER DEFINED DESPITE A SHALLOWING OF THE
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL ACROSS BOHOL
ISLAND. A 290946Z SSMIS PASS FURTHER REVEALED A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED ACROSS THE STRAIT. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF THE SYSTEM BASED ON
THIS DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS
BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR ANIMATION AND AGREES WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW THAT INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS AS WELL. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CONTINUALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES FROM THE CURRENT
STR TO ANOTHER STR ANCHORED NORTH OF SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. AS THIS STR ASSUMES STEERING, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT EMERGES OVER THE SULU
SEA.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING INTERACTION WITH A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE EVENT, WHICH WILL ADVECT COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE
SYSTEM INDUCING A WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK AS SUPPORTED BY THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Very scary, scariest storm experienced...


Very strong accompanied by montrous rain which is continuing to flood and floood our house. Water coming out of light bulb and entire basement is flooded by 2-3 inches

[euro6208]

Off topic but latest track has this almost hitting borneo and be in the vicinity of Singapore just north of where AirAsia went down...Looking like a major setback for the ongoing recovery...What a year...

[euro6208]

Deep convection continues to explode in size right over cebu city, 2.5 million metro...

[ejeraldmc]

Deep convection continues to explode in size right over cebu city, 2.5 million metro...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

More ridiculous news: PAGASA downgraded Seniang or Jangmi into a tropical depression.