Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Here we go again...12GFS-Parallel settles a 1048mb High down to South Texas next Thursday and has temperatures in the low 30s with light snow in the Rio Grande Valley

Yet the 850 MB temp doesnt cross SE Tx. What is the deal with this? I guess not all 1050 MB highs are the same.... Geez

[BigB0882]

Even here in Baton Rouge the temps are busting. It is 48 at 1:00 PM and we are supposed to be at 56 and on the way to a high close to 60. Not even close.

[Portastorm]

Conditions across West, NW and W Central Texas are deteriorating rather quickly as light snow is falling in Amarillo. Lubbock is reporting a 20 vehicle accident due to light icing. Midland/Odessa is reporting light icing across their area. San Angelo is reporting icing in Sweetwater. The models were not forecasting much of any precipitation today and if they were, it was extremely insignificant.

Like always with winter weather in Texas, I suspect there may be a few more surprises in store for folks.

Austin's currently at 45. The 0z GFS had us at 48 degrees at this time and even the recently issued 12z had us at 47.

[Portastorm]

Seeing reports on Twitter now that roads are starting to ice up badly just west of Abilene with the freezing line moving slowly south and east.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Temperatures have dropped from 33 to 30 in the last hour. It's definitely getting colder than they thought at this time. It would be interesting to see what in it store for the rest of this week up here.

[Brandon8181]

Temperature in Flint (Near Tyler) got up to 38 about noon, but as since cooled down to 37. Our predicted high today is 46... hmmm.... Ralph Weather?

[SouthernMet]

Nam/rap/hrrr/sref only show the freezing drizzle intensifying during the day for those out west..

[dhweather]

Skies have cleared and it is sunny in Rockwall/Heath , temps in the mid to upper 40's.

[SouthernMet]

Skies have cleared and it is sunny in Rockwall/Heath , temps in the mid to upper 40's.

cf hasn't passed through yet.

[ronyan]

Interesting that all of the globals show a significant arctic intrusion into the midwest and Eastern 1/3 of the country around Jan 7-9th. The question is, does it dive South toward TX as on the parallel run or is it primarily a midwest and NE cold as on the Euro. GFS and CMC also have some cold into TX but not as extreme as PGFS.

[dhweather]

Interesting that all of the globals show a significant arctic intrusion into the midwest and Eastern 1/3 of the country around Jan 7-9th. The question is, does it dive South toward TX as on the parallel run or is it primarily a midwest and NE cold as on the Euro. GFS and CMC also have some cold into TX but not as extreme as PGFS.

It looks a whole lot like that will be an east/northeast event. Of course, that is 10 days out, so the models will flop around a whole lot between now and then.

[BlueIce]

Your friends up to the north in Oklahoma City are currently sitting at 25F temp and 17F dew point (71% RH), 22MPH wind gusting to 28 from the north at KPWA (Wiley Post Airport). We have also observed snow flurries for brief periods.

The 00z GFS at 12CST had Wiley Post sitting at 31F with a dew point of 16F (53% RH), and winds sustained at 16mph. The 00z GFS had us marginally warmer and dryer. I think the cold is still well on its way given that the observed 1053mb High pressure is still in the center of Montana. Probably not record breaking but still could have a interesting situation unfolding for Texas and Oklahoma.

Source: Weather Prediction Center

[TexasF6]

Troy Kimmel Update:

http://troykimmelweather.com/2014/12/30 ... iefing-91/

[Portastorm]

BlueIce, thanks for posting. Some real interesting stuff there. When it's all said and done, you may end up having a better chance at wintry precip than most of us.

[Ralph's Weather]

Temperature in Flint (Near Tyler) got up to 38 about noon, but as since cooled down to 37. Our predicted high today is 46... hmmm.... Ralph Weather?

I am see a few breaks in the clouds near downtown Tyler so maybe we make the low 40s if it clears up some. Everything I am seeing points to at least being concerned about freezing rain though there is probably only about a 40% chance of a light glaze and 20% chance for >.05" of ice.

[Ralph's Weather]

The 15Z SREF looks way too warm for the whole event, but it is initialized too warm so I will not give it much credence.

[SouthernMet]

Freezing Rain Advisory issued for western 3 rows of counties, does include Weatherford, but not DFW at this time.

[Brandon8181]

The 15Z SREF looks way too warm for the whole event, but it is initialized too warm so I will not give it much credence.

Looks like 2:30 Flint/Tyler is at 39 degrees right now. With a forecasted high of 46 I don't see us getting above 41 (if that)

[Snowman67]

Can someone post a link to a site where you can view where the cold front is in real time? Thanks.

[Ralph's Weather]

Can someone post a link to a site where you can view where the cold front is in real time? Thanks.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ shows live updating personal weather station data along with plenty of other weather related data.