Texas Winter 2014-2015

[SouthernMet]

Models are definitely busting with temps atm, the question is will they continue to, for thursday morning...

[Ralph's Weather]

The 15Z SREF looks way too warm for the whole event, but it is initialized too warm so I will not give it much credence.

Looks like 2:30 Flint/Tyler is at 39 degrees right now. With a forecasted high of 46 I don't see us getting above 41 (if that)

Skies have cleared in Tyler so I will go with 43 here, area east of here may not see the sun until it is too late to get to 40 though.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Precip falling near SA? Viga or drizzle?

[Portastorm]

Texas-based NWSFOs are coming out with their afternoon forecast discussions (AFDs). So far, Midland/Odessa and Fort Worth have opined. Midland is looking for possibly heavy wintry precip tomorrow night into Thursday with the possibility of the Winter Storm Warning being extended. Fort Worth is holding pat to their morning forecast and believes that the I-35 corridor (Dallas, Fort Worth, Waco, Temple, Killeen) will remain just a tad above freezing. It sounds like they believe the area west of Fort Worth is really going to get nailed though with some freezing rain. They referenced that guidance which has come out today is wetter for the Metroplex than earlier model runs.

[JDawg512]

The city of Austin has decided to postpone NYE events and fireworks until further notice. There must be enough of a concern that conditions may be worse here in the city than what is forecasted for tomorrow night. Going to be very interesting to watch how all this plays out over the next 24 hours.

[Portastorm]

The city of Austin has decided to postpone NYE events and fireworks until further notice. There must be enough of a concern that conditions may be worse here in the city than what is forecasted for tomorrow night. Going to be very interesting to watch how all this plays out over the next 24 hours.

Yep. Regardless of whether it ices or not, the weather outside tomorrow night is going to be absolutely miserable for anyone out in it. Either freezing rain/drizzle or a very cold rain with a stiff north breeze. City officials referenced that fact in the release of the news.

[WeatherNewbie]

Texas-based NWSFOs are coming out with their afternoon forecast discussions (AFDs). So far, Midland/Odessa and Fort Worth have opined. Midland is looking for possibly heavy wintry precip tomorrow night into Thursday with the possibility of the Winter Storm Warning being extended. Fort Worth is holding pat to their morning forecast and believes that the I-35 corridor (Dallas, Fort Worth, Waco, Temple, Killeen) will remain just a tad above freezing. It sounds like they believe the area west of Fort Worth is really going to get nailed though with some freezing rain. They referenced that guidance which has come out today is wetter for the Metroplex than earlier model runs.

That is worrisome for the Metroplex in my opinion. I think they are off on their temperatures by several degrees (based upon other observed temp busts today), so the fact that they are showing it wetter while just a tad above freezing means quite the mess if they are indeed a few degrees too warm.

[SouthernMet]

I hate to stick my neck out there & be Mr Gloom & Doom, but honestly I agree... Every model pretty much keeps us above @ or freezing tonight, when temps nw of metro are already at freezing (graham/ post oak) that is a major bust & if temps are even 2-4 degrees off for fort worth thursday morning/thursday we could be talking about a major icing event. Still confidence remains high that highest ice totals will remain west of I-35..

[Snowman67]

Can someone post a link to a site where you can view where the cold front is in real time? Thanks.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ shows live updating personal weather station data along with plenty of other weather related data.

Thanks Ralph!

[Portastorm]

Probably the most interesting (IMO) portion of EWX's just issued AFD:

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL STILL BE THE WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT INCLUDING A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
QPF AND PRECIPITATION AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER...BY A DEGREE OR
TWO...FOR NEW YEARS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL STILL DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY SO FREEZING RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...HAVE REDUCED ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...AND PUSHED BACK THE AREA TO CONFINE IT TO
THE HILL COUNTRY AND NO LONGER HAVE FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 COUNTIES. WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...AND THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION BEING FAIRLY SHORT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENT. ELEVATED
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL SHOW WHETHER THIS WARMING TREND IN
THE MODELS CONTINUES OR IF THEY TREND COLDER AGAIN. JUST A FEW
DEGREES EITHER WAY WILL IMPACT THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z NAMs seem to be initialized pretty well, though maybe a bit too warm. It is showing moderate showers and thunderstorms starting after midnight in DFW and 3AM in Tyler before that just drizzle. It continues showing freezing temps staying west of I-35 though for areas north of I-20 it shows temps 35 or below so it will be a very close call.

[CaptinCrunch]

High so far today here at the house has been 39 degrees. Forecast called for lower to mid 40's. It has also continues to be overcast with a NNW wind at 7 to 10 mph.

[Lagreeneyes03]

I'm not seeing any temperature busts for the metroplex, 80% the Wunderground stations are now at mid 40's with a 50 here and there. Looks like whatever warm(ish) air that's here is blocking any real freeze from happening and will continue to do so. Disappointing I know. Well not really. I actually have plans to go see my favorite band tomorrow night for NYE and really didn't want that ruined.

[CaptinCrunch]

This setup is a lot like the last ice event we had here, were Temps across Tarrant Co from DFW airport down 360 and then west fell between 32-30 and saw about .10 of ice while east of that saw little or nothing at all.

[SouthernMet]

I'm not seeing any temperature busts for the metroplex, 80% the Wunderground stations are now at mid 40's with a 50 here and there. Looks like whatever warm(ish) air that's here is blocking any real freeze from happening and will continue to do so. Disappointing I know. Well not really. I actually have plans to go see my favorite band tomorrow night for NYE and really didn't want that ruined.

We were progged to be in the 40's, problem is, mid-upper 30's for tonight. No one is denying it's in the 40's in metro, but look where cold front is & what's just behind it, no way we stay in the 30's/40's tonight.

You guys are giving up way too early.

[CaptinCrunch]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 211 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2014 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... .

FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO GRANBURY TO JACKSBORO. ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TO AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO WEATHERFORD TO MONTAGUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WARM THURSDAY BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE ICE THREAT ENDS IN THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TXZ091-100>102-115>117-129>132-141>144-156-157-310400- /O.NEW.KFWD.ZR.Y.0003.141231T0600Z-150101T2100Z/ MONTAGUE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-EASTLAND- ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-LAMPASAS- CORYELL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GRAHAM...OLNEY... JACKSBORO...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS... WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN... STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE... COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON... MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE 211 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY. * TIMING...BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TUESDAY IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TX LASTING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO WEATHERFORD TO MONTAGUE * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AND UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH THURSDAY CENTERED NEAR A LINE FROM PALO PINTO TO COMANCHE. * OTHER IMPACTS...OVERPASSES...BRIDGES...AND ELEVATED SURFACES WILL BE THE FIRST TO ACCUMULATE. ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY AS WELL AND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST PLACES THAT ICY SPOTS WILL DEVELOP.

[WeatherNewbie]

I'm not seeing any temperature busts for the metroplex, 80% the Wunderground stations are now at mid 40's with a 50 here and there. Looks like whatever warm(ish) air that's here is blocking any real freeze from happening and will continue to do so. Disappointing I know. Well not really. I actually have plans to go see my favorite band tomorrow night for NYE and really didn't want that ruined.

It is significantly colder to both the north and west of the Metroplex... that is a pretty good indication that the Metroplex is headed for colder temperatures. The Metroplex was able to hit near its forecast high today because the sun broke through. Once the colder air and clouds push in this evening, I think you are going to see a bust on the Metroplex temperatures going forward.

[SouthernMet]

It is significantly colder to both the north and west of the Metroplex... that is a pretty good indication that the Metroplex is headed for colder temperatures. The Metroplex was able to hit near its forecast high today because the sun broke through. Once the colder air and clouds push in this evening, I think you are going to see a bust on the Metroplex temperatures going forward.

Thank you...

[SouthernMet]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=483.6364

This + subfreezing temps = you do the math.

[Ralph's Weather]

The biggest busts are in the Panhandle where temps are 5 to 10 degrees colder than the 18Z runs predicted and in parts of E TX where cloud cover has been stubborn. A 5 degree bust NYD morning will have a huge impact. Tomorrow we will enter the range of the short range models and that will give us a better idea.