WPAC: JANGMI - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

looks like a major mudslide?

have heard of 6 flood deaths so far. That is quite low for a Mindanao storm, so this may be some good news

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Some wind damage, too.


Folks over there reported high winds and rain

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 292225Z SSMIS CONTINUE
TO SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI,
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON THE OVERALL CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TS 23W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
ANOTHER STR LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) ASSUMES STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES. AFTER TAU
48, TS JANGMI WILL EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN SCS AND SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS JANGMI WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING INTERACTION WITH A
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT, WHICH WILL ADVECT COOLER, MORE
STABLE AIR INTO THE SYSTEM INDUCING A WEAKENING TREND. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

It kinda lost its well-defined structure. But it's still popping up deep convection especially to the north and northeast. I heard that it's already cleared up in Cebu and Bohol provinces but Bicol, Samar and Leyte areas are still having bad weather conditions.

[stormstrike]

The heavy rains have already stopped here in Tacloban at around 7 or 8 am.

Most intense rain was around 2am. I think this is the worst flooding this year for Tacloban. Days before 2014 ends.

[Alyono]

having a very hard time finding a circulation

[dexterlabio]

Jangmi is a lot weaker storm than Hagupit but it caused more deaths primarily due to landslides and flashfloods. Preliminary reports from different provinces show at least 28 fatalities, mostly from the Visayas region.


http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/12/30/14/20-dead-samar-cebu-due-seniang

[Alyono]

any word yet from Mindanao?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Per JMA and JTWC Jangmi directly hit Cebu City. Winds were worst at 2am, while rains were at 10pm.. Sudden calm at 12 am then monster winds came back at 1 am. Saw some blue lights and howling sounds together with moderate rains at 2:30 then peak gusts were about 86
9 km/h. Really surprised that we still had electricity.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

In Mindanao, rivers had overflowed. City of Butuan left without power last night and was drenched with waist-deep flood. People evacuated DURING the storm.

Powerful winds knocked down posts, trees and some light material houses.

Death toll in Cebu is higher than in Mindanao itself

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Even our governor, Mr. Davide, mentioned about Jangmi's UNDERESTIMATED STRENGTH!!
From an ABS CBN article




OVERCONFIDENT'

Speaking to ANC, Cebu Governor Hilario Davide III said his province was informed of the threats posed by the storm, but he said some of his constituents may have underestimated the strength of Seniang.

''Last time, typhoon Ruby hit that part of Cebu, people were evacuated pero walang gaanong nangyari. Siguro there was over-confidence,'' he said.

Apart from the 22 fatalities in Cebu and Samar, two teenage boys were electrocuted while wading through floodwaters in Loon in Bohol province.

In the Mindanao city of Tagum, Davao del Norte a bus skidded off a rain-soaked road late Sunday, leaving one passenger dead and 17 injured, said provincial police chief Senior Superintendent Samuel Gadingan.

In the mountainous town of Monkayo, Compostela Valley, a 65-year-old man drowned as he tried to cross a river, and one person was killed by a tree uprooted by fierce winds in Butuan City, other officials said.

[dexterlabio]

A cyclone's water power should never be underestimated.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY
DISPERSED AS IT TRACKED ACROSS THE VISAYAN ISLANDS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE
CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OBSCURED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 23W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
ANOTHER STR LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) ASSUMES STEERING.
AFTER TAU 36, TS JANGMI WILL EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN SCS AND SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS JANGMI WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SCS STR.
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING INTERACTION WITH A
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT, WHICH WILL BRING IN RELATIVELY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE SYSTEM INDUCING A WEAKENING TREND AND
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION AS IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO THE MALAY PENINSULA.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

A wet new year's eye for Palawan...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AFTER IT TRACKED ACROSS THE VISAYAN ISLANDS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED AND MAY HAVE REFORMED
ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TS 23W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCING THE
FRAGMENTED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
AFTER TAU 24, THE TD WILL EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA
AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, JANGMI WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING INTERACTION WITH A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WHICH
WILL BRING IN RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE SYSTEM,
CAUSING ITS EVENTUAL DISSIPATION AS IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO THE MALAY
PENINSULA.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN





JTWC downgrades to a TD while JMA keeps it as a TS...

I slightly agree with JTWC on this one...Utterly mess...

[euro6208]

Triple punch?

First, Philippines
Second, Recovery effects for AirAsia
Third, Going to add more flooding to devastated Malaysia...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Sad news: Reports of casualties over the Philippines continue to rise, death toll soars to over 30.


Ignoring now the conservative NDRRMC.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/12/30/14/storm-seniang-death-toll-jumps-30

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Final Warning as TD? Too dependent on satellite image.

This time, I am leaning on the JMA.

WTPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 8.9N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 121.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 8.3N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 7.8N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 121.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM
NORTH OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR POSSIBLY
SOONER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z
IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 310330

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (JANGMI)

B. 31/0232Z

C. 8.60N

D. 121.17E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/2212Z 8.93N 122.05E SSMS
30/2247Z 8.90N 121.95E SSMS


LONG

TXPQ29 KNES 310306
TCSWNP

A. 23W (JANGMI)

B. 31/0232Z

C. 8.7N

D. 121.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS
REGENERATION OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY

[euro6208]

:roll:

Final Warning as TD? Too dependent on satellite image.

Nothing there...move on...No LLCC detected...Shredded due to high wind shear...