Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TheProfessor]

Yeah Porta that 12z GFS Run would not be good for North, Central and parts of South Texas if it verified, it is far out but something to keep an eye on.

[TheProfessor]

Are temperature actually dropped 2 degrees from 32 to 30 here according to NWS, but Weatherbug has had my temperature at 28 degrees for a long time now.

[ndale]

I am currently at 37 degrees with a 28 degree dewpoint. Forecasted high is 38 and low tonight 35 with rain. Mixed emotions about whether this forecast is right or not.

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro Update: Coming in much colder, showing more frozen accumulations for the northwestern half of North Texas...not an expert on the algorithms used for the snow accumulation map but it has greater than 2 inches from SE Dallas and points north and west (maybe sleet accumulations). If temps don't warm much tomorrow, the Metroplex could have even more issues when the second round of precip moves in tomorrow night!!

[Ntxw]

Yep looks like the euro is painting a mess. Qpf has always been more along and east of I-35. Just a matter of temps. Those rgem maps don't look so bad now.

[TheProfessor]

It will be interesting to see if NWS upgrades the advisories if the GFS decides to follow the Euro and the RGEM

[ndale]

EWX has reports of freezing drizzle just west of Kerrville at Mt. Home.

[dhweather]

I know we're all focused on the immediate event (as we should be), but if y'all want some entertainment ... check out the 12z GFS. It has a dhweather-approved "Cat 5 in the Gulf!" winter storm for Texas around January 12th-13th.

Now I gotta go look at this!

[TheProfessor]

Only 29 degrees here according to Weatherbug, there's still time to warm above freezing but it will be interesting if we stay below or at freezing here.

[wxman57]

Yep looks like the euro is painting a mess. Qpf has always been more along and east of I-35. Just a matter of temps. Those rgem maps don't look so bad now.

Looks like 3-5" of snow for D-FW area tomorrow afternoon/night according to the 12Z Euro.

[Shoshana]

I am currently at 37 degrees with a 28 degree dewpoint. Forecasted high is 38 and low tonight 35 with rain. Mixed emotions about whether this forecast is right or not.

We're at 38 also with a 29 dewpoint ... It did go up to 40 at one point overnight then down to 36. I have no clue what we're going to get.

Called my mom in N Dallas and she had no idea whether she got any sleet overnight - it was gone by the time she went outside. She said it's 38 where she is.

[Ntxwx]

Yep looks like the euro is painting a mess. Qpf has always been more along and east of I-35. Just a matter of temps. Those rgem maps don't look so bad now.

Looks like 3-5" of snow for D-FW area tomorrow afternoon/night according to the 12Z Euro.

And what are your thoughts on that Wxman?

[ndale]

Yep looks like the euro is painting a mess. Qpf has always been more along and east of I-35. Just a matter of temps. Those rgem maps don't look so bad now.

Looks like 3-5" of snow for D-FW area tomorrow afternoon/night according to the 12Z Euro.

Is it showing all rain for south central TX?

[ndale]

Latest update from EWX has them stating they don't think the freeze line will move any further eastward than it is now either today or tonight. The closest freezing temps now I have seen in our area is between Johnson City and Fredericksburg in the hill country.

[Portastorm]

As we've been talking about how the models (i.e. guidance) has been too warm for certain areas of the state, check out the latest forecast discussion from NWS SJT. They lowered max temps considerably for today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1217 PM CST WED DEC 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Temperatures are reluctant to warm at all today, currently ranging
from the mid teens north of I-20 to the mid 20s along the I-10
corridor. Max temps were lowered a good 4-5 degrees today.
Precipitation type was modified as well. Carrying occasional
freezing drizzle with a chance for sleet. Otherwise, changes were
minor. We're still looking for precip to increase in coverage and
intensity tonight with additional ice accumulations up to 1/4 inch
possible from the Concho Valley into the Big Country.

[Ntxw]

Yep looks like the euro is painting a mess. Qpf has always been more along and east of I-35. Just a matter of temps. Those rgem maps don't look so bad now.

Looks like 3-5" of snow for D-FW area tomorrow afternoon/night according to the 12Z Euro.

Im wondering if that is mostly sleet? Its intriguing given the dewpoints are low. A lot to work out on the column.

[iorange55]

Yep looks like the euro is painting a mess. Qpf has always been more along and east of I-35. Just a matter of temps. Those rgem maps don't look so bad now.

Looks like 3-5" of snow for D-FW area tomorrow afternoon/night according to the 12Z Euro.

Now things are getting interesting. Although, I don't see us getting 5 inches of snow. I think sleet is probably more likely, which is better than freezing rain.

[WeatherGuesser]

Austin braces for NYE winter weather
KVUE - ‎1 hour ago‎



AUSTIN -- With winter weather headed to Central Texas, the City of Austin's New Year's Eve celebration at Butler Park is postponed due to anticipated inclement weather. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the Hill Country

[TheProfessor]

Yep looks like the euro is painting a mess. Qpf has always been more along and east of I-35. Just a matter of temps. Those rgem maps don't look so bad now.

Looks like 3-5" of snow for D-FW area tomorrow afternoon/night according to the 12Z Euro.

Now things are getting interesting. Although, I don't see us getting 5 inches of snow. I think sleet is probably more likely, which is better than freezing rain.

Well, I'd say sleet is better than freezing rain if we know for sure we won't have a freeze melt than refreeze process, because if that occurs I would rank sleet worse than freezing rain because you usually get more of it. Though freezing rain is more of a threat for downed power lines and trees, both can be equally bad in my opinion.

[Portastorm]

Hey ... if you folks in North Texas are real lucky, you might even get THUNDERsleet!