Texas Winter 2014-2015

[WeatherNewbie]

It does appear the high temp for DFW is going to bust by 3-5 degrees. They were saying 41/42 this morning, I don't think it has been above 37.

[Ralph's Weather]

I was looking at the same thing about the need for them to upgrade to warnings. I think we are at that point. I think its time to start watching the possibility of this thing heading further east than expected as well since that seems to be whats trending. IMO from what I'm seeing it looks like even the easterly temperatures are busting a few degrees 2-5 degrees which we know thats all it takes!

At this point I would include WSWarnings to include all of your HWY 75 counties and county lines to the east and see how things look through 7 pm then issue WSWatch, or possibliy WSWarnings further east.

Completely agree, temps in NE TX and SE OK are busting even on the short range models. If that continues into tomorrow morning we are looking at 28-30 instead of 33-35 in Lindale which could take us from a half inch plus of rain to a full on ice storm. For areas in the eastern Metroplex I am fully expecting significant ice accumulations and for the NW Metroplex it could be a sleet storm.

[CaptinCrunch]

The 2pm temperature reports.

Denten, 31
DFW, 35
Alliance, 33
Meacham, 33
Arlington, 36
Love Field, 38

Dew points at all locations were in the mid to lower 20's.

[PauleinHouston]

Afternoon to all...I think this image says a lot!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=goes-r_proving_ground/geocolor_nolights_conus4km&width=960&height=775

Looks to me as though the cold air is still filtering South and our tightly wound closed low over far S/Calif is farther South than originally forecast.

Check out the snowpack...sweet!

[Ralph's Weather]

This forecast is made tougher because the high res short range models have initialized way warm and they do not show much of any cooling tonight. I thought we would be able to use those to help. They also a in the GFS camp of the precip not coming in until morning. It really is a nowcasting scenario. So far it appears that the RGEM has been the best model which is very odd. I do not know what the Euro is showing.

[TheProfessor]

If we do get that 3-5 inches of snow/sleet could Friday become a problem?

[WeatherNewbie]

If we do get that 3-5 inches of snow/sleet could Friday become a problem?

If we really do end up with that much, it most likely means the temps busted by several degrees, so I would imagine it will still be on the ground on Friday.

[goCoogs]

I mowed my lawn this afternoon. Perfect weather for lawn work. Wearing jeans and a long sleeve shirt and I didn't break a sweat. I love it!

[Ralph's Weather]

Afternoon to all...I think this image says a lot!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=goes-r_proving_ground/geocolor_nolights_conus4km&width=960&height=775

Looks to me as though the cold air is still filtering South and our tightly wound closed low over far S/Calif is farther South than originally forecast.

Check out the snowpack...sweet!

Wow, it is way SW of even the NAM who is the closest. That will likely play a role in how things turn out especially for the weekend. Right now the models show it splitting up tomorrow night with part going over the Central Plains and a chunk hanging back over AZ and going through the Panhandle on Friday. If it stays south it may hold together and cross further south over Texas. That scenario plus an icepack over much of Texas could result in a much colder and still wet (or frozen?) Friday and Saturday.

[Texas Snowman]

This whole affair is starting to remind me of the Christmas Eve blizzard in 2009, the Super Bowl week snowstorm (Feb. 2011) and to some extent, the 2014 Icemageddon sleet storm that struck the Red River Valley last December.

If memory serves correct, all events were tough to forecast, the NWS and most North Texas pro mets played it safe and close to the vest due to model output and most were forced to play catch-up as the events actually began to unfold.

All three proved to be significant winter weather events in North Texas. But that was not what was forecast from even a day or two out from the event's beginning.

For what it's worth, in my mind, this winter weather event is starting to get that "big ticket" feel to it. And it all brings two thoughts to mind:

First, winter weather is often very tough to forecast here in North Texas. In fact, the late great Harold Taft once said something to the effect that he had learned over the years that the best way to predict snow in North Texas was to look out the window and if it was actually snowing, to forecast it.

Second, there are some very good weather minds here on Storm2K and the discussion coming from this forum has had me and my family prepared for whatever unfolds for several days now. I'd say that Ntxw has had this one pegged from almost the start.

[Longhornmaniac8]

I'm interested to see how this winds up playing out for Austin. We're going to be so borderline it's going to be hard to say until it happens. It does look to me like the Pacific moisture is going to find its way into the Austin area, certainly closer than it's been progged. Temperatures seem to be warming a bit right now, with most locations in the metro area 38-41. It's 6-8 degrees cooler only about 40 miles west. We will see if these temperatures keep filtering their way to the east.

[PauleinHouston]

Yeppers...agreed. Do I smell BUST?

And then there's this http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s15/fzlv/fzlv.gif?1420059678711

Afternoon to all...I think this image says a lot!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=goes-r_proving_ground/geocolor_nolights_conus4km&width=960&height=775

Looks to me as though the cold air is still filtering South and our tightly wound closed low over far S/Calif is farther South than originally forecast.

Check out the snowpack...sweet!

Wow, it is way SW of even the NAM who is the closest. That will likely play a role in how things turn out especially for the weekend. Right now the models show it splitting up tomorrow night with part going over the Central Plains and a chunk hanging back over AZ and going through the Panhandle on Friday. If it stays south it may hold together and cross further south over Texas. That scenario plus an icepack over much of Texas could result in a much colder and still wet (or frozen?) Friday and Saturday.

[TheProfessor]

That includes quite a bit of the metroplex, that would not be good if we get Freezing rain.

[TheProfessor]

Dew points are at 23 degrees in DFW and around 21 degrees in Denton County at Alliance and Denton Airport.

[WeatherNewbie]

Is that our moisture I see popping up over the Davis Mountains, or is that something different?

[srainhoutx]

Is that our moisture I see popping up over the Davis Mountains, or is that something different?

It's moisture.

[WeatherDuck]

Afternoon to all...I think this image says a lot!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=goes-r_proving_ground/geocolor_nolights_conus4km&width=960&height=775

Looks to me as though the cold air is still filtering South and our tightly wound closed low over far S/Calif is farther South than originally forecast.

Check out the snowpack...sweet!

If the low pressure system does track more south and east than expected, how would that affect temperatures in the Austin area?

[Ralph's Weather]

Afternoon to all...I think this image says a lot!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=goes-r_proving_ground/geocolor_nolights_conus4km&width=960&height=775

Looks to me as though the cold air is still filtering South and our tightly wound closed low over far S/Calif is farther South than originally forecast.

Check out the snowpack...sweet!

If the low pressure system does track more south and east than expected, how would that affect temperatures in the Austin area?

I may be wrong, but I do not see the main upper low around San Diego affecting tonight and tomorrow morning as that is being driven by a lead wave. The impacts will be felt on Friday and Saturday if I am seeing things correctly. By tomorrow afternoon we may be turning our heads west again looking for more surprises from this pattern. These type situations are usually composed of multiple rounds and that may be the case here. Just remember that one ice or snow falls temps do not like to rise much unless you get bright sun and southerly winds.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Wow, latest TV met forecast actually pushes the freezing line slightly back to the VERY western portions of the metroplex west of I-35. ??? I'm not following their reasoning based on everything I'm reading here.

[CaptinCrunch]

3pm Temperature reports...

Mineral Wells, 29
Denten, 31
Alliance, 33
Meacham, 33
DFW, 35
Love Field, 36
Arlington, 36

Dew points remain in the lower 20's winds N at 12 WC 27

Temperatures are averaging 3-5 degrees below forecasted highs from Dallas westward, and closer to forecasts highs eastwards.