Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TheProfessor]

I can also report that there is very very very light snow/graupel falling here in the Denton County part of Southlake.

[Ralph's Weather]

I can also report that there is very very very light snow/graupel falling here in the Denton County part of Southlake.

With how much freezing drizzle West Texas has gotten since last night this does not surprise me.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Light snow and sleet falling near The Colony.

[iorange55]

Okay, it's time to put in my "guess," because that is all anyone is doing at this point. I believe the predominant precipitation type will be sleet, and I do believe temps will be colder around the metroplex as a result.

We'll see what happens, though. The main impacts could easily stay off to the west like the local mets expect.

[gboudx]

Latest update from Steve McCauley:

The Stat Method maintains the forecast freeze line in almost the same position as it projected yesterday - perhaps about 7 miles farther east - and thus freezing rain and even some sleet pellets can be expected after midnight tonight and into Thursday morning generally along and west of a line from Paris - Rockwall - Mesquite - Waxahachie - Hillsboro. The farther west of this line you are, the higher the probability of slippery road conditions. To the east, even though it will be mainly a cold rain, don't be surprised to see some sleet as well, but temps will stay above freezing so no ice accumulations expected there. The latest round of official advisories and warnings have this well covered. All areas should transition to just plain cold rain by lunchtime.

Please remember that this is all a matter of 1 or 2 degrees on the thermometer and can still go either way. If it is 2 degrees colder, this will be a very dangerous ice event for the Metroplex. If it is 2 degrees warmer, it will be a mild annoyance. So plan for the worst, and hope for the best.
The Tech model is still going for ALL RAIN and NO ICE anywhere in the Metroplex. The Canadian Model has backed off its major ice storm prediction for us but still accumulates some ice for ALL of the Metroplex.

The Truth is often somewhere in between!

Have a safe start to the New Year, and I will post any last-minute updates if necessary.

[TheProfessor]

is the RGEM not a reliable model? The 18z is still showing a major Ice storm for what looks like areas along and west of 35E, but I haven't seen any of the mets mention it.

[Ralph's Weather]

is the RGEM not a reliable model? The 18z is still showing a major Ice storm for what looks like areas along and west of 35E, but I haven't seen any of the mets mention it.

We will see, it was showing that this would be a major event in the Metroplex before the other models so now we will wait and see if that is the case. it was showing temps a bit too cold east and too much precip. But other models have trended towards it as it has come back to reality.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

In Richardson, 35 degrees with 25 dew point. No detectable precip as far as I can tell.

[CaptinCrunch]

WFAA's weather forecast maps that Colleen is showing are off. Freeze line is currently I-35, as it's back down to 32 or lower along and west of that line.

[HockeyTx82]

So I live 2 blocks west of I-35E in Denton county......

I keep hearing that west of I-35 is the concern. What does this mean for me

I already went to the store just in case. Should I go on the other side of the interstate?

[amawea]

So I live 2 blocks west of I-35E in Denton county......

I keep hearing that west of I-35 is the concern. What does this mean for me

I already went to the store just in case. Should I go on the other side of the interstate?

I'd go to the one by the feeder on the east side. You might run into trouble at the one on the feeder on the west side.

[TheProfessor]

lol, but yeah you could very easily get affected, especially if wet bulbing occurs.

[Tammie]

And the weatherboard goes silent... Is it time to start looking outside to see what's falling from the sky already? The Dallas mets seem to really be thinking nothing will happen until tomorrow morning, and then it will change to rain by afternoon. I've been at 30 degrees all day and DP 22 until about 30 minutes ago, and the DP dropped to 21. I'm having a hard time understanding why they think all this is going to be liquid after tomorrow early afternoon.

[Shoshana]

And the weatherboard goes silent... Is it time to start looking outside to see what's falling from the sky already? The Dallas mets seem to really be thinking nothing will happen until tomorrow morning, and then it will change to rain by afternoon. I've been at 30 degrees all day and DP 22 until about 30 minutes ago, and the DP dropped to 21. I'm having a hard time understanding why they think all this is going to be liquid after tomorrow early afternoon.

I think most are in a 'wait and see' mode right now. Or eating dinner. So many possibilities about what's going to happen...

[Ralph's Weather]

Temp 39, DP 26, cloudy with a light NW breeze. The temp should cool as the precip saturates the air. Be very careful if going out tonight.

[CaptinCrunch]

DFW airport is now down to 33.

[ludosc]

Temp 33
DP 24

just west of downtown Fort Worth

[aggiecutter]

More cold on the way early next week:

[ATCcane]

Models are indeed showing more cold air next week, in fact several shots show up over the next two weeks. GFS has one heck of a teaser for Texas at the end of its 18z run. Will be fun to watch and see if and how this all evolves.

[CaptinCrunch]

Ok, based off the current observations page from the NWS FTW here are the 6pm Temps and Dew Points to draw a better picture of where the freeze line is currently positioned across NTX.

Sherman/Denison T.32 DP.24
Denton T.31 DP.21
FTW Alliance T.31 DP.21
FTW Meacham T.32 DP.22
Cleaburne T.32 DP.22

DFW Airport T.33 DP.21
Kennedale (home) T.33 DP. 23
Burleson T.33 DP.23

So I think it's safe to say that the I-35 corridor is a good North to south place to draw the line currently with it pushing ever so slowly east. By Midnight the freeze line should run from about Paris down to Rockwell to Waxahachie.