Texas Winter 2014-2015

[SouthernMet]

I think tonight's models call for an obvious upgrade... (for areas strictly west of a sherman-fort worth-stephenville line)

still looks like a marginal event if anything for dallas, with trace amounts eastward... But for areas northwest of Stephenville/Fort Worth/Sherman... SREF/RAP/HRRR/CMC/NAM are all in fairly good agreement that this is going to be a major event esp where temps are in the 20's.

Wet bulb temps are around 26-27 in northern tarrant county, just a matter of time now..

I do think the WSW should be expanded through tarrant/denton counties per the latest data, but no further east than that. Also I would be close to issuing a PDS Ice Storm Warning for the Mineral Wells/Jacksboro/Weatherford/Stephenville/Breckenridge areas.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 00Z NAM is borderline wet snow for Saturday morning just west of I-35.

[SouthernMet]

This is what concerns me : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displa ... ll&adtfn=1

An inch of QPF over metro by Noon tomorrow (all frozen for fort worth) either way you cut it, .25"+ freezing rain/rest sleet ect (snow?) its a very dangerous situation for those below 30 to have an inch of qpf... esp half of it at night.

[TheProfessor]

It is likely too late for WSW it would cause people to go to the stores and it looks like precip will start early.

[Portastorm]

Been holding steady at 39 last 3 hours here, and dew point went from 31 to 32.

I am also at 39 where the temp has been all day and a dewpoint of 30.

37.8 at 8:06 pm with a dewpoint of 30.2 in my location of South Cedar Park/nw Austin. Dewpoint has risen slightly. Maybe some saturation of the air column is occurring(?).

Earlier today I thought there might be a shot but I seriously doubt it now. Going to be too warm in most of the metro area ... which is fine by me.

[SouthernMet]

:uarrow: It is likely too late for WSW it would cause people to go to the stores and it looks like precip will start early.

I have seen many times the nws issue a WSW from an advisory DURING the actual event, definitely not too late.

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: It is likely too late for WSW it would cause people to go to the stores and it looks like precip will start early.

I have seen many times the nws issue a WSW from an advisory DURING the actual event, definitely not too late.

I know they have, but I think it's more dangerous to do that because people might panic and go out for supplies, which you don't want to happen. Especially after last years event. best thing to do would be to tell the local mets now to tell everyone the best thing they can do is stay off the roads.

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley

A wintry mix is developing to our southwest and is moving slowly northeast and will arrive in the Metroplex after midnight bringing a mixture of sleet and freezing rain to much of the region.

I was in hopes of that the weather balloon report out of Fort Worth this evening would assist in refining our winter weather outlook, but unfortunately, there appears to be serious data errors in the report. The data from the weather balloon suggests this will be an all-snow event for the DFW area, and that is simply NOT believable. So it appears we will have to throw out this weather balloon report and go with what we had earlier. Perhaps we will get a "corrected" data report later tonight.

The latest Tech model is still going for ALL RAIN. That, too, is not very believable. I don't recall having this much chaos in the data right before a major precipitation event. Murphy's Law!

Thus, as we stated before: prepare for the worst, and hope for the best!

[TheProfessor]

I would laugh if this was an all snow event lol, it would probably be a good one too. but It looks like the precip might be here before midnight, I'm not sure.

[iorange55]

Haha, that's a great update from Mr. McCauley. It's not often he's surprised/confused by a storm. It seems like the closer we get, the less we actually know.

[gboudx]

The precip seems certain. As we know, it's the temps the biggest variable. I'm only expecting cold rain.

[hriverajr]

Temperature has actually risen here in Del Rio. Appears air mass modification is beginning down here.

[ravyrn]

With such high qpf forecasted, won't that moisture bring down the warm air aloft with it? I recall an event last year, maybe it was in Houston, that was looking like Icemageddeon but it wound up being a bust because the precipitation brought down the warm air with it? Not to say there won't be wintry precip in DFW, but I have a hard time believing the southeastern 1/2 of the metroplex will have any issues.

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[iorange55]

The precip seems certain. As we know, it's the temps the biggest variable. I'm only expecting cold rain.

Same here. It looks like the temp here has went up a degree to 33. It just doesn't look like it's going in the right (wrong?) direction. That's, okay, though. I think we are looking at a few more chances later in the month.

[TheProfessor]

In areas with higher dew points this will likely happen, but area with dew point that are probably 25 or below, wet bulbing could bring temps down enough to counter warm air advection. Dew point is at 23 degrees in DFW and 21 degrees just 5-10 miles west.

[gboudx]

well dp out here in the Eastplex is similar to you at 23.

[TheProfessor]

Is anyone near Waco that could tell us what the precip is doing?

[orangeblood]

Really interesting ballon sounding out of Fort Worth....The above freezing warm layer starts around 3800 ft. up to 9100 ft, max temp is 3.4 Deg C and is broken up by a below freezing layer around 5,000 ft.. - rough estimate of the mean temp in the above freezing layer is around 1.5 Deg C. Saturated layer in the dendritic growth zone estimated to be around 75 mb thick later tonight. IMO, it's a borderline sleet storm across portions of the metroplex...should have a better idea as reports come in over the next few hours.

[ronyan]

The 0z GFS Parallel shows a 1051mb high in the panhandle Monday with 2m temp anomalies of -12C for most of TX by Tuesday. We're not finished with cold air chances.

[HockeyTx82]

FWIW, just drove back from Addison, temp on car thermometer was 37, got home and off the highway in Corinth temp was 33 and rain just now, thought I heard an ice pellet or two hit. Interesting night ahead to say the least. Forecasted low is 27 I believe. Got one car in the garage and the other I have the windshield wipers flipped up on. I just pray that people stay safe tonight. Alcohol and driving don't mix and add in wet, possibly icy roads and a lot of people's New Year will not start off very good.