ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[dexterlabio]

Years after an El Nino tend to have active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic...I'm not sure if after this "almost-El Nino", a more active ATL season will follow.

I read somewhere in this forum that in order to get an active Atlantic hurricane season like 2004 or 2005 in the near future, we have to see a potent El Nino this year...but so far the ocean and the atmosphere are not clicking to call this El Nino...

[cycloneye]

Years after an El Nino tend to have active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic...I'm not sure if after this "almost-El Nino", a more active ATL season will follow.

I read somewhere in this forum that in order to get an active Atlantic hurricane season like 2004 or 2005 in the near future, we have to see a potent El Nino this year...but so far the ocean and the atmosphere are not clicking to call this El Nino...

It has really been an unusual ENSO period in the past 12 months with the ups and downs in the anomalies and more important has been the atmosphere behavior that has not been El Nino-Like.It will be interesting to see how the tropical basins respond in 2015 to this stagnate pattern.

[Yellow Evan]

As a reminder, Nino 1+2 is prone to lots of peaks and valleys.

[euro6208]

Isn't 1.2 the shallowest out of the other regions thus more prone to rapid up and down changes? if so then i wouldn't worry too much on a modoki...traditional el nino likely later this year as the ocean recharges up yet again...

[cycloneye]

ESPI Index is way negative and it has been that way for the past two months.Being in negative is not a good sign for El Nino to come soon. (If it comes at all)

[cycloneye]

Latest update of the Nino areas as of 06z:

Nino 1+2 has gone up rapidly from La Nina threshold to near dead neutral with the usual big swings up and down.-0.210c.

Nino 3=Has remained almost in the same number at +0.707c.

Nino 3.4 continues to go down in the cold neutral area at +0.248c.

Nino 4 is also going down but more slowly than 3.4.Is at +0.580c

[asd123]

Latest update of the Nino areas as of 06z:

Nino 1+2 has gone up rapidly from La Nina threshold to near dead neutral with the usual big swings up and down.-0.210c.

Nino 3=Has remained almost in the same number at +0.707c.

Nino 3.4 continues to go down in the cold neutral area at +0.248c.

Nino 4 is also going down but more slowly than 3.4.Is at +0.580c

3.4 is now creeping down like you said and the SOI is near El Nino levels. But after all this gain of the SSTA's being positive, they are going back down. Additionally, you mentioned the ESPI which is unfavorable for El Nino as of now. And finally not so good news for an El Nino: https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/5 ... 2958177280

What is going to happen to this El Nino business? In what direction is all of this going? It's been oscillating between neutral, and any El Nino attempts fade after a while before even becoming an El Nino.

[dexterlabio]

I don't know with others but if this El Nino does not come in the coming weeks or months, the whole year could go another neutral. The chance of a La Nina this year could have been higher only if at least a weak El Nino came last Fall.

The strong MJO wave that is lingering in the Maritime Continent is bringing wetter-than-average weather in Indonesia and Southern Philippines for the past few weeks, which in my opinion does not support an El Nino...also the current MJO phase does not favor warming in the Nino regions, thus we saw cooling.

That's quite good news in Asia because El Nino turns out really menacing during the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring. The 2009-2010 drought in SE Asia dealt a considerable damage to agriculture.

[cycloneye]

I have not seen a disfuntional ENSO like this in the past decade. We knew the 1997-98 El Nino was going to be a reality as the warming was consistent without those big swings up and down.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Interesting warm pool coming from the west moving from the east. CFSv2 cranking this up and showing a strong El Niño but I don't want another "hype" from last year to happen this year. I think it's gonna get more likely... The longer and El Niño doesn't occur, the higher the chance an event would happen IMO but not too strong..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

And BTW, some substantial warming happening over Niño 1+2 right now... Warm pool surfacing over the area.

[cycloneye]

Here is a good blog by CPC explaining all about the MJO and how it relates to ENSO and why do we care.

An excerpt:

Imagine ENSO as a person riding a stationary exercise bike in the middle of a stage all day long. His unchanging location is associated with the persistent changes in tropical rainfall and winds that we have previously described as being linked to ENSO. Now imagine another bike rider entering the stage on the left and pedaling slowly across the stage, passing the stationary bike (ENSO), and exiting the stage at the right. This bike rider we will call the MJO and he/she may cross the stage from left to right several times during the show.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... do-we-care

[cycloneye]

What I am really watching is that growing large warm pool in the subsurface of the Indian Ocean/West Pacific to see if it expands eastward. If you remember back in January 2014 a similar pool was building in the same area and moved eastward and by March/April it was in the Subsurface of Central to East Pacific but it didn't trigger the expected so called "Super El Nino".

[cycloneye]

Hey folks don't look now but Nino 3.4 has fallen to the dead Neutral spot.

[cycloneye]

This is from Steve Gregory regarding that large warm pool who is filling for Dr Jeff Masters who is in vacation.

In case it isn't immediately obvious - this is why the CFS is forecasting a MAJOR El Nino to develop next summer and fall. This model is a relatively poor performer. However, it has done better over the past month, and it has forecast a big El Nino next summer for the past 4+ months. And now, ALL the Members of this ensemble model are calling for it. That is the first time in more years than I can remember that it has done this with such 'intensity'.

[dexterlabio]

It feels odd though that Nino 3 and 4 regions are at least 0.5 but 3.4 has fallen to almost 0C...nevertheless this is more worth raising an eyebrow than Nino 1.2 cooling below La Nina level... Let's see if the coming MJO wave in the Pacific will reverse things or keep them as they are...




Seems to though that we are just starting all over, like it was last year...anticipating a super El Nino because of a warm subsurface pool... Only difference is that last year the Pacific was relatively cooler, especially the eastern Nino regions..

[cycloneye]

In only 2 weeks there is a difference in the subsurface as you can see below as that warm pool in the East Pacific gets smaller with time and some colder pockets grow.

December 22



January 4

[cycloneye]

Preliminary data by CPC has Nino 3.4 down to +0.5C. It was at +0.7C on last week's update. The text of the CPC weekly update will come later today.

[cycloneye]

Text of the CPC weekly update. ONI is at +0.7C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

The Aussies released their update of 1/6/15 and they say things are cooling but El Nino Alert remains for now.

Tropical Pacific waters show signs of cooling

Issued on 6 January 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

El Niño-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean weakened over the past fortnight, after being close to or exceeding El Niño thresholds for several weeks. Despite this easing, the Bureau's ENSO tracker status remains at El Niño ALERT.

Several indicators have moved back from El Niño thresholds over the past fortnight. Sea surface temperature anomalies have notably cooled by around 0.4 °C in the key NINO regions of the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, although temperatures still remain above average along much of the equator. Beneath the surface, temperatures have also eased closer to average in many areas. The Southern Oscillation index remains negative, but is not currently at El Niño thresholds as occurred during spring.

Despite the general step back from El Niño levels, trade winds look likely to weaken once again in coming weeks, which in turn may bring some renewed warming of sea surface temperatures. Climate models generally indicate little significant change over the next two to three months, with warmer than average sea surface temperatures persisting in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/