Texas Winter 2014-2015
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- TheProfessor
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- gboudx
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Update from jeff:
Significant cold air outbreak heading for the southern plains and TX.
Hard freeze likely Thursday morning over much of the area.
Very cold rain with some sleet possible Friday/Saturday.
Strong arctic high pressure cell over NE Canada will unleash into the US tomorrow and roar off the TX coast early Wednesday. Surface pressure pushes through 1055mb and approach 1060mb over the central plains Wednesday with surface pressure anomalies pushing over 3SD above normal…barometric pressure records may be established over portions of the central and southern plains with this massive arctic high pressure cell. Temperatures in NW Canada are currently in the -40F to -47F range and this air mass will be headed south down the plains very quickly over the next 24-36 hours. Leading edge of the bitter cold air mass will move off the TX coast early Wednesday with already cold temperatures falling during the day. Highs in the 40’s will be reached early with temperatures falling into the 30’s during the day under strong N winds. Wind chill values will fall into the 20’s during the day…making today feel warm. It is going to be cold so prepare accordingly!
Wednesday night/Thursday Morning:
Prolonged hard freeze likely over at least the northern part of the area (N of HWY 105).
Wind Chill Advisories possible over portions of the area.
Strong cold air advection will continue Wednesday night with advection of freezing line deep into the area just after sunset and continued temperature fall all night even with winds staying up. Wind chills will fall into the 10’s and may require wind chill advisory for portions of the area for Thursday morning. Mid and upper level cloud deck streaming overhead from weak upper system near Baja looks to push slightly southward Thursday morning allowing areas north of I-10 to clear some. Given the gravity of the arctic high pressure dome to our north forcing very cold air into the region…think several hours of sub-freezing conditions are likely even with gusty winds and clouds…would go even colder if winds were calm and skies clear and records would likely fall in that event. Extremely dry air mass with dewpoints in the 1’s and 10’s certainly support very cold temperatures, but will moderate over those low values due to continued strong winds and clouds.
Lows Thursday Morning:
N of Hwy 105: 18-22
N of I-10: 25-29
Harris County inside Beltway 8: 27-30
N of HWY 35: 29-32
Beaches: 33-35
Hard freeze criteria is certainly possible north of Hwy 105 with 2 hours or longer below 25. Expect freezing conditions of 8-14 hours across the region. Could even approach hard freeze warning criteria along and north of FM 2920, but still some uncertainty on clouds this far south.
This freeze will likely be particularly damaging as it will be advective in nature (strong winds pushing colder air into the region). 90% of our freezes in this area are radiative or happen on clear calm nights when the temperature cools toward the dewpoints. Radiative freezes allow excellent opportunity for covering of vegetation to produce a “greenhouse effect” as the warmth from the ground is trapped under the protective covering. Advective freezes remove the warmth from the ground with the gusty winds and reduce the effectiveness of a protective covering usually resulting in extensive damage to cold sensitive vegetation and citrus.
Areas north of HWY 105 suggest take all precautions to protect any exposed outdoor pipes as forecasted temperatures of this magnitude for this period of time tend to cause freezing of pipes in this region.
Pets and livestock should be sheltered and water sources checked for ice formation and blockage.
Will continue to refine temperatures for Thursday morning, but all cold weather precautions should be taken for this freeze.
Many areas will not warm above freezing on Thursday until mid to late morning with high temperatures only in the upper 30’s to near 40.
Friday-Saturday:
Baja system ejects toward TX with coastal low forming over the lower TX coast. 1060mb arctic high slides E toward IN and weakens to 1041mb, but still ridges SSW into TX. Cold air looks hard to dislodge and onset of overrunning moisture looks to begin by midday Friday. Friday morning low temperatures look to once again reach freezing across a good part of the area with only a very slow warm up on Friday. Forecast profiles suggest onset of rainfall may be mixed with or all sleet north of a line from Brenham to Conroe to Livingston during the day Friday. Would like to see more warm air advection above the surface to be confident in all rain across those northern counties. Deep surface dry layer will also have to be overcome for precipitation to reach the surface which will likely delay the onset to the warmer parts of midday to afternoon Friday.
Forecast becomes even more uncertain Friday night-Saturday as GFS backs another surge of arctic air into the region with rainfall increasing as overrunning pattern establishes and surface layer moistens. Surface temperatures will fall near or below freezing Friday night north of a line from College Station to Huntsville to Livingston with sleet/rain possible. Am a bit worried that the high temperature forecast for Saturday is only 36-38 for IAH which does not give much room for the models to be “too warm” before we would see possible freezing rain further south. Additionally dewpoints for IAH on the GFS are 28 to 32 on Saturday with a 71% chance of rain which does not really make much sense…would expect a closer dewpoint/temperature for such a forecast rain chance…suggesting either the dewpoints are too low or the surface temperature is too warm.
For now will keep everything liquid south of a College Station to Livingston line both Friday night and Saturday, but this period bears close watch as only a slightly colder surface temperature could result in P-type problems deeper across the area. Forecast soundings show a fairly significant warm advection pattern developing above the surface cold dome Saturday which should reduce any sleet threat and at least attempt to erode the surface cold dome or modify it (warm rain drops falling through the cold air)…this may be what saves the area from a prolonged ice storm in the end.
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Re:
TheProfessor wrote:Friday could be a mess here in the Metroplex, Definitely gonna keep an eye on it.
I'm a little confused when the biggest threat is... kind of looks like Saturday to me but there's certainly a chance Friday too.
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Re:
Brent wrote:TheProfessor wrote:Friday could be a mess here in the Metroplex, Definitely gonna keep an eye on it.
I'm a little confused when the biggest threat is... kind of looks like Saturday to me but there's certainly a chance Friday too.
i said Friday because of the chance of wintery precip in the morning and as of right now Friday looks to be colder than Saturday.
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Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Friday doesn't seem to have much moisture though... granted it wouldn't take much to create chaos if temps are in the 20s but I see Saturday as a bigger threat as it'd probably trend colder if there is a lot of precip anyway.
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Looks like a very interesting week ahead. I think Friday could be more significant than modeled as moisture seems to build in faster than the models have been showing in recent storms. Saturday morning could definitely see some accumulations. It will be interesting to watch the temperature profiles as the time nears. It looks mainly like sleet and freezing rain right now, but models are typically too warm at this range so snow could end up being predominant over northern Texas with freezing rain in Central and Southeast Texas.
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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
GFS indicates only light precip Friday. The heavy precip is on Saturday as the upper trof/disturbance passes and the wave develops along the front. Could be a lot of freezing rain across Texas, including the D-FW area on Saturday.
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Looks like EWX is erring on the side of caution with their wintry forecast based on past model performance with the New Years Eve event.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
526 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTH. THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY HOWEVER.
FROPA IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BY 18Z IN OUR NORTH AND BE THROUGH THE
AREA BY 00Z. TAKING A LOOK AT UPSTREAM OBS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MAV GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE TEMPERATURES QUITE WELL. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THAT ACCURACY WILL TRANSLATE FARTHER
SOUTHWARD. WHILE INTERROGATING THE SUITE OF POPULATION
OPTIONS...THE CONSENSUS WAS LOWS IN THE 20S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER. WITH A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY MID
DAY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL QUICKLY AT FIRST...BUT AS WINDS
DIE DOWN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DECREASE. SOME
MODELS WERE INDICATING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULDNT WIDEN UNTIL
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AND THAT WOULD DELAY THE COOLING TREND AND
PROBABLY RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT
DUE TO THE CURRENT PERFORMANCE OF THE MAV...OPTED TO TRUST IT FOR
NOW.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH EVENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A
WEAK UPPER LOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN A TREK TOWARDS WEST
TEXAS THURSDAY AND ARRIVE OVER EL PASO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SIMULTANEOUSLY...ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL TREK
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE NOT QUITE AS STRONG A
FRONT AS WEDNESDAYS...THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MAY DROP LOWS TO
AROUND 30 ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHERN I 35 CORRIDOR.
SIMILAR TO OUR NEW YEARS EVENT RESULTING IN WINTRY PRECIP...WE
WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A STRONG OVERRUNNING PATTERN SET UP RESULTING
IN LIGHT QPF AND PROBABLY DRIZZLE INITIALLY FRIDAY AND WHEN THE
PACIFIC LOW REACHES WEST TEXAS BY 06Z SATURDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT COULD POTENTIALLY ENHANCE THE QPF AMOUNTS AND RESULT IN
SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR EDWARDS
PLATEAU AREAS MOSTLY.
THE INITIAL QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER THIS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO HOLD IN PLACE WHILE MOIST 850 FLOW COMPETES AND
MOISTENS THE COLUMN DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFTING. THE OTHER QUESTION
IS WHETHER QPF ENHANCEMENT WILL BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE GFS
SUGGESTS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
REALLY OVERDONE THE QPF OUTPUT DUE TO THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO IN
THE PAST EVENT...AND WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A MUCH DRIER
SCENARIO...OPTED FOR A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST THIS TIME
AROUND. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE
GETTING MORE DETAILED AS SFC TEMPERATURES THIS FAR OUT CANT REALLY
BE RELIED UPON FOR THE PRECISION NEEDED TO MAKE DEFINITIVE PRECIP
TYPE FORECASTS JUST YET. BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST
FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT.
THIS EVENT SHOULD CONCLUDE BY MID DAY SATURDAY AND TRANSITION BACK
TO ALL RAIN WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT AND AMPLIFIES A BIT. SHOULD KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
526 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTH. THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY HOWEVER.
FROPA IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BY 18Z IN OUR NORTH AND BE THROUGH THE
AREA BY 00Z. TAKING A LOOK AT UPSTREAM OBS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MAV GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE TEMPERATURES QUITE WELL. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THAT ACCURACY WILL TRANSLATE FARTHER
SOUTHWARD. WHILE INTERROGATING THE SUITE OF POPULATION
OPTIONS...THE CONSENSUS WAS LOWS IN THE 20S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER. WITH A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY MID
DAY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL QUICKLY AT FIRST...BUT AS WINDS
DIE DOWN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DECREASE. SOME
MODELS WERE INDICATING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULDNT WIDEN UNTIL
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AND THAT WOULD DELAY THE COOLING TREND AND
PROBABLY RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT
DUE TO THE CURRENT PERFORMANCE OF THE MAV...OPTED TO TRUST IT FOR
NOW.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH EVENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A
WEAK UPPER LOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN A TREK TOWARDS WEST
TEXAS THURSDAY AND ARRIVE OVER EL PASO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SIMULTANEOUSLY...ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL TREK
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE NOT QUITE AS STRONG A
FRONT AS WEDNESDAYS...THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MAY DROP LOWS TO
AROUND 30 ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHERN I 35 CORRIDOR.
SIMILAR TO OUR NEW YEARS EVENT RESULTING IN WINTRY PRECIP...WE
WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A STRONG OVERRUNNING PATTERN SET UP RESULTING
IN LIGHT QPF AND PROBABLY DRIZZLE INITIALLY FRIDAY AND WHEN THE
PACIFIC LOW REACHES WEST TEXAS BY 06Z SATURDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT COULD POTENTIALLY ENHANCE THE QPF AMOUNTS AND RESULT IN
SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR EDWARDS
PLATEAU AREAS MOSTLY.
THE INITIAL QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER THIS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO HOLD IN PLACE WHILE MOIST 850 FLOW COMPETES AND
MOISTENS THE COLUMN DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFTING. THE OTHER QUESTION
IS WHETHER QPF ENHANCEMENT WILL BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE GFS
SUGGESTS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
REALLY OVERDONE THE QPF OUTPUT DUE TO THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO IN
THE PAST EVENT...AND WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A MUCH DRIER
SCENARIO...OPTED FOR A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST THIS TIME
AROUND. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE
GETTING MORE DETAILED AS SFC TEMPERATURES THIS FAR OUT CANT REALLY
BE RELIED UPON FOR THE PRECISION NEEDED TO MAKE DEFINITIVE PRECIP
TYPE FORECASTS JUST YET. BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST
FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT.
THIS EVENT SHOULD CONCLUDE BY MID DAY SATURDAY AND TRANSITION BACK
TO ALL RAIN WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT AND AMPLIFIES A BIT. SHOULD KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- TheProfessor
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Re:
TheProfessor wrote:The 6z PGFS has a weekend ice storm for North Texas.
Of course...it's a natural part of hosting a major championship sporting event at the Death Star.
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CF championship game in Arlington on Monday. DFW is guaranteed to be shutdown this weekend as result by ice and snow 

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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Regarding EWX's forecast discussion above: I'm confused on the remarks about models being overdone on QPF amounts during last event? They did a decent job handling QPF amounts, it was the temperature profiles that were causing them fits, at least in North Texas. They seem to be justifying using a certain model, The European in this case, by making an assertion that doesn't seem accurate. We've discussed many times over the years on this board that systems coming out of the subtropics via Baja are almost ALWAYS underdone by models with regards to moisture. Models just don't seem to handle systems that well coming out of the Pacific south of Cali - the systems end up almost always delivering more moisture/QPF than what was forecast...I would suspect the models to continue to play catch up with regards to moisture influx.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Last edited by orangeblood on Tue Jan 06, 2015 10:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
weatherdude1108, I don't blame EWX at this point to exercise caution ... however I disagree with them about this Friday-Saturday event being similar to the last event. It's going to be at least 3-5 degrees colder around their forecast area and that'll make a difference. Meanwhile, FWD had another great discussion this morning for our friends in North Texas. That office may consistently be the best writers of forecast discussions I have ever seen.
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- Tireman4
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Portastorm wrote:weatherdude1108, I don't blame EWX at this point to exercise caution ... however I disagree with them about this Friday-Saturday event being similar to the last event. It's going to be at least 3-5 degrees colder around their forecast area and that'll make a difference. Meanwhile, FWD had another great discussion this morning for our friends in North Texas. That office may consistently be the best writers of forecast discussions I have ever seen.
And when... oh when...will we hear from the PWC? My gracious. I pay good money for this service and all I get is a rock...

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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
wxman57 wrote:GFS indicates only light precip Friday. The heavy precip is on Saturday as the upper trof/disturbance passes and the wave develops along the front. Could be a lot of freezing rain across Texas, including the D-FW area on Saturday.
Wxman57 - Do you know of any data that shows the accuracy of temperature forecasts 2-3 days in advance of a cold front? Perhaps data that would show what the probability is within +/- 2F of forecasted temps? The reason I ask, is that with the upcoming cold front and perhaps moisture, many areas are going to be within a degree or two of freezing, which will determine whether they get freezing rain or just rain. I'm trying to quantify what the probability is of the temperatures being off of the forecasted lows. i.e. the probability of being off by 1 degree, 2 degrees, etc... in a 2-3 day time frame.
Don't know if any such data exists, but figured if anyone would know it would be you

Thanks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Portastorm wrote:weatherdude1108, I don't blame EWX at this point to exercise caution ... however I disagree with them about this Friday-Saturday event being similar to the last event. It's going to be at least 3-5 degrees colder around their forecast area and that'll make a difference. Meanwhile, FWD had another great discussion this morning for our friends in North Texas. That office may consistently be the best writers of forecast discussions I have ever seen.
Yeah, I don't blame them either. Seems like the weather patterns have been sneaky that way lately. Yes, totally agree about FWD. I love reading the FWD discussions!

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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Tireman4 wrote:Portastorm wrote:weatherdude1108, I don't blame EWX at this point to exercise caution ... however I disagree with them about this Friday-Saturday event being similar to the last event. It's going to be at least 3-5 degrees colder around their forecast area and that'll make a difference. Meanwhile, FWD had another great discussion this morning for our friends in North Texas. That office may consistently be the best writers of forecast discussions I have ever seen.
And when... oh when...will we hear from the PWC? My gracious. I pay good money for this service and all I get is a rock...


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