Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Thursday morning still looks on track to be the coldest morning of this next cold blast across North Florida. Looks like low-to mid 20s expected across the panhandle and areas of the Big Bend (Tallahassee area) and mid-upper20s overthe Suwanee River Valley region.

Now, one thing I am watching very closely is here in Jax. Now, we are forecast here to get into the upper 20s over interior Duval County away from the St.Johns River and the coast (west Jax, north Jax where I am), but a big factor may be the potential onshore flow coming in on Wednesday night. The Arctic High and the positioning of it will make all the difference pertaining for Jax. If the Arctic High comes a bit farther south into the Tennessee Vally region by Thursday morning, the wind flow will mostly stay out of the north, as opposed to northeast (onshore) and that will cause more cold air to drain into my area and if that happens, the temps will go colder than what is being forecast currently.

However, if the Arctic HP axis shifts more eastward than southward on Wednesday evening, then the onshore flow here will kick in I believe much sooner and not only will it help to keep Jax from experiencing a hard freeze potential, but may allow stratocumulus cloud deck to roll in off the Atlantic and keeps us only from getting much below the freeze mark. So, I will be watching to see what unfolds with regards to that and will check with curiosity the next runs.

For all down in the central peninsula (NDG, StormingB81, psyclone, and others), I think you will once again get spared as temps look only to get to the upper 30s to lower 40s along the I-4 corridor. However, those colder interior areas which typically have good drainage during these types of events, such as Brooksville, and the areas around Ocala and Leesburg may get to near the freeze mark by Thursday morning.

[gatorcane]

This cool down will be very brief for Florida. Here are snippets from the latest NWS Miami discussion:

TEMPERATURES MAY BEGIN TO FALL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND BY EARLY THURSDAY...SHOULD RANGE FROM LOW 40S OVER
HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTY TO AROUND 60F ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
WITH THE RAPID TRANSITION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN FROM NORTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST/ONSHORE AFTER DAYBREAK

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN TURNS ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH
DEEPER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW EVOLVING OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE QUICKLY WARMED TEMPERATURES...BACK
TO 5-10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...AND AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED EAST
COAST SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

Full discussion:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[psyclone]

one other thing worth noting as this chill approaches: bodies of water are sporting well above normal temps for this time of year so those near the coast and inland lakes and rivers will experience greater than normal airmass modification. as an example, Tampa bay is in the low 70's...that's about 10 degrees warmer than normal and will certainly provide a warming influence

[northjaxpro]

Yes, just about all these cold spells are brief down in this area gatorcane. But, at least this one spell this week will pack a good punch up here in North Florida for about 36 hours or so. Arctic front will pass through here late tomorrow morning looking at the latest model runs.

I will check back later with the latest late today or early this evening.

[StormingB81]

Looks very brief....Doesn't even look like it is a 2 day event...If you blink you may miss it

[HURRICANELONNY]

I knew when we got nice and cool around Thanksgiving that it would be a warm winter. Get teased and gone.

[TheStormExpert]

Unless a sudden pattern change occurs very soon it's hard to go against the fact that this winter will likely go down as one of the warmest for many places throughout Florida (especially S. FL). I thought I would give a rundown of what this winter/cold front season has been like for Florida from a south Floridian's prospective.


November: November was actually a cooler than average as well as wetter than average month (for S. FL at least) with an El Niño-ish present, there were also a few big cold fronts, one at the very beginning of the month (Nov.1-2) and one around Thanksgiving.

December: December started off somewhat warmer than average for a week with little to no wet weather, than transitioned into a prolonged cooler than average period for two weeks with pleasant conditions and no rainfall whatsoever. After that two week period ended came the extreme torching in time for Christmas and New Year's despite a very very brief and slight cool down for Christmas Day. Temps. ran a good 5-10 degrees above average for most of the peninsula and there was little to no rainfall. All in all December was a warmer and extremely drier than average month.

January: So far January has been a continuation of what December ended like with above average temps. by 5-10 degrees, and below average rainfall. There is currently forecasted to be another very brief cool down to slightly below normal temps. come Thursday, with hints of another cool front for mid-late next week. It also looks like the Florida peninsula at least will see a wetter than period starting as early as Thursday or Friday and continuing into next week at least.


So it looks like by just looking at the temperatures and rainfall so far this winter season that the El Niño pattern we were to see being forecasted by the CPC is a major bust for at least the peninsula of Florida. Since November we have reverted to what seems like a La Niña pattern. My prediction from here on out is that the long awaited and forecasted El Niño never comes to be anytime soon at least and the winter continues to be just as it is now with warmer and drier than normal weather.

[northjaxpro]

Well, that's why folks like you living in South Florida is the best region in the country in my opinion of escaping Old Man Winter. It really takes a really extreme arctic outbreak to affect you all down there, preferably the teleconnections must align favorably especially a set-up of +PNA/-AO/-NAO. It is definitely a rarity to see that occur and consider that a huge blessing for the whole state in general, especially for people who love the warmk weather and for Chamber of Commerce folks for sure.

Thankfully, in general, we in North Florida get sideswiped or scrapped by arctic airmasses that dive south down the polar jet toward the Deep South. They generally move out quickly as well, and this upcoming one will be no exception. We get these occasional brief arctic cold spells 2 or 3 times on average in winter. So acually we are about on schedule with these arctic spells as this upcoming one beginning late tomorrow will be the second of this season.

The dry, arctic boundary will move through Northeast Florida before sunset tomorrow. The latest runs show that the ery strong, massive Arctic High(1050+mb) will move over the TN Valley region late Wednesday into Thursday. That is significant for Jax if that positioning of the HP verifies because the HP axis will settle a bit closer to the region, just enough to keep the flow more from the due north. This would delay the flow becoming onshore here until during sometime on Thursday. Also, if the Arctic HP dome axis is positioned early Thursday in the TN Valley, more cold air could drain into North Florida and temperatures could end u@ being colder than was analyzed earlier today.

NWS projections are indeed trending colder for Thursday morning, And hard freeze watches are posted, with Tallahassee WFO calling for low 20s there and here in Jax, they are now projecting 26 degrees for Thursday morning. I definitely will monitor the situation very closely.

Thursday promises to be the coldest day of this winter season thus far here in North Florida. The Arctic High will deliver fierce north to eventually northeast winds during the day, with winds frequently gusting to over 30 mph, and I am certain wind advisories and wind chill advisories will out in full force all day. Strong cold air advection as well ongoing under the influence of the Arctic HP dome really is going to make Thursday feel bone chilling cold for our standards. Max temps on Thursday will struggle just to make it into the lower 40s here in Jax if we are lucky.

[northjaxpro]

NWS has upgraded watches to Hard Freeze Warnings for all of North Florida, except along the immediate coastal areas. The forecast is right on track. However, the onshore flow will kick in strongly during the day on Thursday and stratocumulus cloud deck will move in as the models are depicting. That will hopefully spare us from getting a freeze on Friday morning across Jax area.

A very enlightening and interesting AFD early this morning from the NWS Jax mets. The NAM model, which is pretty good with winter synoptics, is showing a very plausible scenario which is not out of the realm of possibility for Thursday night into early Friday for interior areas of Northeast Florida and Southeast GA. Due to the length of the AFD, I will provide the link below.


Link: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/text.php?pil:AFD

[gatorcane]

The 06Z GFS brings back the rather potent cold front for the Eastern CONUS for the weekend of Jan 16th-Jan 18th. Also it has support from the ECMWF now as of the 00Z run which is much colder with this front. Something to watch for sure once this week's front passes to see if the models trend colder with this front.

[NDG]

Good morning, here is an update on the most recent MOS guidance, as expected they have trended closer to the raw model numbers and in some cases below raw numbers.

Jacksonville (JAX)
Thursday: low 25, high 46
Friday: low 31, high 62

Tallahassee
Thursday: low 19, high 47
Friday: low 30, high 57

Pensacola
Thursday: low 19, high 44
Friday: low 30, high 55

Ocala
Thursday: low 25, high 54
Friday: low 35, high 63

Tampa (TPA)
Thursday: low 38, high 58
Friday: low 46, high 69

Orlando (MCO)
Thursday: low 38, high 59
Friday: low 46, high 70

Naples
Thursday: low 47, high 68
Friday: low 54, high 77

Miami
Thursday: low 57, high 70
Friday: low 63, high 78

[NDG]

The 06Z GFS brings back the rather potent cold front for the Eastern CONUS for the weekend of Jan 16th-Jan 18th. Also it has support from the ECMWF now as of the 00Z run which is much colder with this front. Something to watch for sure once this week's front passes to see if the models trend colder with this front.

http://i59.tinypic.com/30w18qx.png

http://i58.tinypic.com/8wcthu.png

With the PNA going positive I can see that happening, but with the NAO still way positive I how to question how "potent" it could be.

[gatorcane]

Wind Chill watches out from NWS Tampa. Going to feel very cold in West-Central Florida tonight:

Wind Chill Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1022 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TONIGHT ADVECTING MUCH COLDER DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-239-
242-248-249-251-255-260-262-080330-
/O.NEW.KTBW.WC.Y.0001.150108T0600Z-150108T1500Z/
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...CLEARWATER...
ST. PETERSBURG...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...WAUCHULA...SEBRING...
AVON PARK...ARCADIA...CEDAR KEY...YANKEETOWN...CRYSTAL RIVER...
HOMOSASSA...HERNANDO BEACH...BAYPORT...PORT RICHEY...HUDSON...
TAMPA...APOLLO BEACH...WESTCHASE...BRADENTON...
ANNA MARIA ISLAND...VENICE...SARASOTA...ENGLEWOOD...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CHIEFLAND...BRONSON...WILLISTON...
INVERNESS...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...DADE CITY...ZEPHYRHILLS...
BRANDON...PLANT CITY...SUN CITY CENTER...PARRISH...
LAKEWOOD RANCH...MYAKKA CITY...NORTH PORT...BABCOCK RANCH
1022 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...15 TO 25 DEGREES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. 25
TO 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

* OTHER IMPACTS...LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS AND DRESS IN WARM LAYERS OF
CLOTHING. REMEMBER TO BRING PETS INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES WILL
DROP TO 35 OR LOWER...EXCEPT 25 OR LOWER ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
AND SUMTER COUNTY.

&&

$$

[psyclone]

this is going to be a wicked nasty, albeit brief event with tons of wind. Gale warnings are in effect for all of the NWS Tampa Bay marine regions...that is quite rare. the good news is that the big ag regions look to avoid a freeze...we're very lucky this airmass isn't plunging straight south or this would be a whole lot worse

[asd123]

Going ahead to approx. 10 days into the future:

ECMWF GFS and GFS parallel and GEM have been consistently hinting at a major cold blast for Florida. Although the forecast output of these models has varied, the message seems to be the same: Major cold is potentially coming for Florida in about 10 days.

Additionally the teleconnections have been morphing towards a favorable outcome for Florida cold for the next 10 days and beyond.

I wanted to point out a run of the GEM model which shows record breaking cold for much of Florida:

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:

[gatorcane]

That would be an epic arctic air blast into Florida if that verified above

GFS still showing the potent front working through Florida toward the end-of-next week but not as cold as that GEM run. Latest ECMWF backed off quite a bit on it's 850MB cold anomalies but it still shows colder than normal temps for Florida during this same timeframe.

By the way look how deep this trough is that the 12Z GEM is showing and that originates straight from the arctic (a "polar vortex" that dives into the lower 48 again)

[HURRICANELONNY]

Hate to sound like a negative nelly but I just don't buy it at all. Models are mostly a joke out past 72 hrs. Especially this year. The signals just don't add up this year for any artic air coming this far south. I want it to snow in Miami but I'd be lucky to see any more 40's down here this winter.

[northjaxpro]

I am not ready to bite just yet gang. Now, if we see this being indicated 3 or 4 days from now, then I will sit up and pay close attention. But, as of right now, not ready to bite on the bait on the hook for now.

Also, a set-up like that is reminiscent of the January 1985 arctic outbreak if this verifies, as the polar vortex was displaced as far south as New England during that event, similar to what is shown in the above run.

[NDG]

I don't see record breaking low temps for central and south FL over the next 2 weeks without the NAO going negative.
I would take a 10 day range forecast map with a grain salt especially the infamous CMC/GEM model.

[NDG]

Going ahead to approx. 10 days into the future:

ECMWF GFS and GFS parallel and GEM have been consistently hinting at a major cold blast for Florida. Although the forecast output of these models has varied, the message seems to be the same: Major cold is potentially coming for Florida in about 10 days.

Additionally the teleconnections have been morphing towards a favorable outcome for Florida cold for the next 10 days and beyond.

I wanted to point out a run of the GEM model which shows record breaking cold for much of Florida:

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:
http://i60.tinypic.com/23maqtc.png

You can take the ECMWF off the list, it dropped such solution at today's 12z run.