Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Wthrlvrmom]

News 5 weather forecast for DFW just has a slight wintry mix for Friday and a cold rain for Saturday and Sunday. Nws is different with sleet/snow for the weekend days.

P.S. I'm a Texas winter thread lurker for 3 years now. Keeps me ahead of the game- Thanks!

[stormlover2013]

still have 3 days to figure this out

[dhweather]

Oh my my this is getting interesting:

The models did this last week too. I'm highly skeptical there will be significant QPF - the column is going to be bone dry.

[texas1836]

I think this will be exactly like last week.

[Ntxw]

Last week the problem wasn't qpf, it wasn't dry DFW got over 1.5 inches for the entire event which was more than the average model consensus just over an inch. The problem was temperature.

Correction it was 1.29 inches which still wasn't dry

[wxman22]

12z gfs is slightly colder and has Temps of 33-35 degrees at iah & hooks during the peak of precipitation. Definitely bears watching

[Rgv20]

12zGFS and GFS-Parallel came in a bit colder for Thursday Morning (Mid 30s to upper 30s) for Deep South Texas and for Saturday 12zGFS has my area stuck in the low 40s with light rain!

[PTrackerLA]

Where do you get the raw GFS output before the run is finished? I use the wxmeteostar site but it doesn't show raw data until the run ends and is going paid next month. Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Parallel as well as the old GFS are a touch colder at 2 meters and both suggest p-type issues may be worth monitoring. Also, the 12Z NAM came in a bit stronger with the secondary front on Friday with a 1056mb High dropping SE from Canada into the Plains.

[dhweather]

Last week the problem wasn't qpf, it wasn't dry DFW got over 1.5 inches for the entire event which was more than the average model consensus just over an inch. The problem was temperature.

Correction it was 1.29 inches which still wasn't dry

Exactly - insufficient cold air along/east of I-35 corridor. Moisture was there.

But the models had painted wintry precip over the area.


Last week: Models had wintry precip over NTX. Cold air didn't make it along/east of I-35 , moisture was available and rain fell. Cold air didn't show up.

This week: Models have wintry precip over NTX. Cold air is here, and reinforcements coming. Moisture availability? That is the question for Friday-Saturday.

[Ralph's Weather]

As has been mentioned typically these Baja lows are wetter than modeled so I think Friday could be pretty interesting across much of the state. Friday night into Saturday could be a significant ice storm for northern SE TX and Northeast Texas with a developing Gulf low. The rest of the weekend and even into next week could be drizzly and cold.

[Ntxw]

The 12Z Parallel as well as the old GFS are a touch colder at 2 meters and both suggest p-type issues may be worth monitoring. Also, the 12Z NAM came in a bit stronger with the secondary front on Friday with a 1056mb High dropping SE from Canada into the Plains.

Not surprising given the EPO has been hovering in the 2-3 sigma below normal levels. It continues to be the main driver, it was mostly positive in December, negative November, and so far in Jan negative.

[dhweather]

AFD update from FWD:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1002 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015

.UPDATE...
SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT EASES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION TODAY AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES STEADILY SOUTH. WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING A STRONGER
SURGE OF COLD AIR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT ARRIVES...WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH ONLY MINOR GRID UPDATES EXPECTED.

THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION STILL EXISTS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS STILL CONFLICTING MODEL DATA WITH
REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AS WELL AS THE LEVELS OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...AND
SPECIFICS WITH THESE FORECAST ELEMENTS WILL LIKELY GET RESOLVED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MORE DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

[wxman57]

Looks like mid 30s and an all-day cold rain event for most of Houston on Saturday. No freezing temps so no freezing rain here. Perhaps from Huntsville northward the temps may be closer to freezing or below. Heaviest precip should pass south of Dallas, though the cold air there may be thick enough for a little snow.

Not a good biking day at all.

[Tireman4]

Looks like mid 30s and an all-day cold rain event for most of Houston on Saturday. No freezing temps so no freezing rain here. Perhaps from Huntsville northward the temps may be closer to freezing or below. Heaviest precip should pass south of Dallas, though the cold air there may be thick enough for a little snow.

Not a good biking day at all.

Well you have two options....one...use your indoor trainer. Two, enjoy the wedding and eat the food...

[ronyan]

Assuming the models are correct at this range with temps. We've seen them under-forecast cold in the past, it wouldn't surprise me to see it again.

[kingwood_tx1999]

..ya I don't see how you can make that statement this far out. ..but what the heck do I know

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: ..ya I don't see how you can make that statement this far out. ..but what the heck do I know

He did say..."Looks like"...

[kingwood_tx1999]

:uarrow: ..ya I don't see how you can make that statement this far out. ..but what the heck do I know

He did say..."Looks like"...

Ah,you're correct he did lol

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like we could potentially wet-bulb down to freezing here with the light precip Friday night/Saturday. GFS has been trending colder last several runs but moisture may be an issue. Something to keep an eye on if it's being showing this 'far' out. I remember the Mardi Gras day (early March) ice storm last year was really not predicted at all until the precipitation began falling.