Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Assuming the models are correct at this range with temps. We've seen them under-forecast cold in the past, it wouldn't surprise me to see it again.

I believe the GFS did pretty well last week in terms of temperatures. Remember we all (or most of us) questioned it and felt like temps were too warm, but it captured the "Ozark Shadow" and how temps would be much colder in West Texas/Panhandle and would pretty much stay there. This time we're going to see a reinforcing front that comes down from the north/northeast and from areas with ample snow cover. Last week's front came down the spine of the Rockies and the coldest air was dammed up against higher ground. It will be interesting to see how well the models, especially the GFS, does this time. Will the cold surface air hold up more against top-down warming than it did last week?

As others have said, QPF is also a valid question. Amounts should be more in central and south/southeast Texas due to its proximity to greater moisture ... especially if a coastal low ends up developing.

[iorange55]

I have an event I am supposed to attend Saturday, and I really don't want to go. A snowstorm would make me a very happy man.

[davidiowx]

I have an event I am supposed to attend Saturday, and I really don't want to go. A snowstorm would make me a very happy man.

I have one to attend in Austin Saturday and DO NOT want to go lol! I as well am hoping this prevents me from having to go

[TheProfessor]

Does this remind anyone of the ice storm from last year a little? The cold seems to be there but we are not sure about the precip, but because of the low being in Baja there is a threat that their could be more moisture than forecasted. Even the timing seems similar, Cold front comes through Wednesday, wintery precip could possibly start Thursday night. I'm not saying we are going to have a mega ice storm, but this can't be written off until after the event happens.

[ronyan]

:uarrow: Assuming the models are correct at this range with temps. We've seen them under-forecast cold in the past, it wouldn't surprise me to see it again.

I believe the GFS did pretty well last week in terms of temperatures. Remember we all (or most of us) questioned it and felt like temps were too warm, but it captured the "Ozark Shadow" and how temps would be much colder in West Texas/Panhandle and would pretty much stay there. This time we're going to see a reinforcing front that comes down from the north/northeast and from areas with ample snow cover. Last week's front came down the spine of the Rockies and the coldest air was dammed up against higher ground. It will be interesting to see how well the models, especially the GFS, does this time. Will the cold surface air hold up more against top-down warming than it did last week?

As others have said, QPF is also a valid question. Amounts should be more in central and south/southeast Texas due to its proximity to greater moisture ... especially if a coastal low ends up developing.

I'll acknowledge that the GFS wasn't too bad with it's forecasts with the last front, but the trajectory of the cold is different this time as you noted. Also, temps did bust in the TX panhandle with the last arctic front. I tend to think that last Arctic front represents an unusual situation that we won't see repeated this year.

[wxman22]

This event looks VERY similar to the early March "surprise" ice event that hit southeast Texas last year, even the trajectory of cold air is the same.

[wxman57]

I have an event I am supposed to attend Saturday, and I really don't want to go. A snowstorm would make me a very happy man.

I have one to attend in Austin Saturday and DO NOT want to go lol! I as well am hoping this prevents me from having to go

I think you'll likely run into freezing rain between Houston & Austin on Saturday.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

:uarrow: Assuming the models are correct at this range with temps. We've seen them under-forecast cold in the past, it wouldn't surprise me to see it again.

I believe the GFS did pretty well last week in terms of temperatures. Remember we all (or most of us) questioned it and felt like temps were too warm, but it captured the "Ozark Shadow" and how temps would be much colder in West Texas/Panhandle and would pretty much stay there. This time we're going to see a reinforcing front that comes down from the north/northeast and from areas with ample snow cover. Last week's front came down the spine of the Rockies and the coldest air was dammed up against higher ground. It will be interesting to see how well the models, especially the GFS, does this time. Will the cold surface air hold up more against top-down warming than it did last week?

As others have said, QPF is also a valid question. Amounts should be more in central and south/southeast Texas due to its proximity to greater moisture ... especially if a coastal low ends up developing.

Generally speaking, doesn't a coastal low shut off moisture to North Texas? Will that be a factor in this pattern should it develop?

[wxman22]

12z Euro looks more inline with the GFS showing precipitation beginning earlier and 2 meter temperatures ranging from 33-34F across south central and northern portions of southeast Texas to 35F across the I-10 corridor during the peak of precipiation. fwiw

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Assuming the models are correct at this range with temps. We've seen them under-forecast cold in the past, it wouldn't surprise me to see it again.

I believe the GFS did pretty well last week in terms of temperatures. Remember we all (or most of us) questioned it and felt like temps were too warm, but it captured the "Ozark Shadow" and how temps would be much colder in West Texas/Panhandle and would pretty much stay there. This time we're going to see a reinforcing front that comes down from the north/northeast and from areas with ample snow cover. Last week's front came down the spine of the Rockies and the coldest air was dammed up against higher ground. It will be interesting to see how well the models, especially the GFS, does this time. Will the cold surface air hold up more against top-down warming than it did last week?

As others have said, QPF is also a valid question. Amounts should be more in central and south/southeast Texas due to its proximity to greater moisture ... especially if a coastal low ends up developing.

Generally speaking, doesn't a coastal low shut off moisture to North Texas? Will that be a factor in this pattern should it develop?

Two things ... actually three things ... will impact you as I see it. Does the upper low (Baja low) keep its structural integrity as it moves over Texas? A lot of times these lows basically get sheared out over the state and their upper level energy is transferred to a developing coastal low of the Texas coast, a surface low if you will. If the ULL stays intact and has some moisture with it -- and if the lower levels moisten up enough -- you would tend to see more precip (QPF) along the route of the ULL. If it shears out and a coastal develops, then yes the more south you go in Texas the more precip you're likely to see and the more moisture essentially gets "robbed" from North Texas.

[Patriot12]

Have the 10k Causeway Run (Port Isabel to South Padre Island) at 10 AM this Saturday morning January 10. What's the latest model guidance for what to expect? (hoping its cold).

[Yukon Cornelius]

Last weekend I'll be able to go hunting for the muzzleloader season. What does between Burkburnett and Guthrie, TX look like, precipitation wise from Friday-Sunday evening? Thanks guys!

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF came in cold and wet for the RGV on Saturday...morning temperatures in the mid 30s with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. It does show snow for parts of South Texas but it seems a bit suspect as temperatures in the 925 and 850 levels look to be above freezing.

[Tireman4]

12zECMWF came in cold and wet for the RGV on Saturday...morning temperatures in the mid 30s with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. It does show snow for parts of South Texas but it seems a bit suspect as temperatures in the 925 and 850 levels look to be above freezing.

You, being a grizzled veteran, know the models will flip/flop countless times before the event. You just might get your snow yet RGV!!!

[TexasStorm]

I know McCauley was saying on FB last night that the low will weaken as it moves across the state and wouldn't have much moisture to work with. To me reading between the lines that would mean that south and central Texas would receive more moisture than North Texas.

[Texas Snowman]

Correct me if I'm wrong - I haven't looked at the models to know what path it might take - but WHERE the coastal low moves to is at times an important consideration for North Texas.

If it's trajectory is more NNE, I seem to remember a time or two where a precip shield will move up into East Texas and NE Texas and actually "wrap around" into portions of North Central Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Both the 12Z Canadian and the Euro trended faster with an upper air disturbance tracking across Mexico into S Central Texas Thursday night into Friday morning. This is before the upper low moves inland over the Baja and begins to shear out. The Euro is very close to suggesting some p-type issues across Central and SE Texas into SW Louisiana before the Coastal trough/wave gets going Friday night into Saturday.

[gboudx]

I know McCauley was saying on FB last night that the low will weaken as it moves across the state and wouldn't have much moisture to work with. To me reading between the lines that would mean that south and central Texas would receive more moisture than North Texas.

Steve has posted an update in the last hour. He mentions the SE part of NCTX getting more precip, but says it's still uncertain.

It is a pleasant winter's day in north Texas as temperatures top out in the 50s under mostly sunny skies. But our next Arctic front is due to arrive tonight ushering in very cold air and wind gusts over 30 mph driving winds chills into the teens and 20s throughout the day Wednesday. It will not be pleasant fighting the biting north winds and bitter wind chills.

Winds go flat by Thursday morning allowing many areas to fall into the teens. Due to the bone dry air, precipitation chances remain at zero through Thursday.

A limited supply of moisture will return to north Texas on Friday allowing a light mix of sleet, freezing rain, and even a few snowflakes possible. But at this time this precipitation appears to be less than a tenth of an inch in our area, not very widespread, and many of us will not see anything at all, especially across northern sections of north Texas.

The weekend continues to "look" interesting, but unfortunately, it remains unclear exactly what will happen. We have an upper-level disturbance that will move in from the southwest bringing a fairly large area of precipitation to the southeast half of north Texas...but will it be cold rain or a wintry mix? Most likely it will be both...starting off as a mix and then transitioning to a cold rain. The timing of the onset of precipitation will determine what we get, and it is the timing that is altogether unclear with this event.

But we are still several days away, and the uncertainty will grow less and less, so stay tuned! Detailed weekend outlook should become more reliable by tomorrow.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF came in cold and wet for the RGV on Saturday...morning temperatures in the mid 30s with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. It does show snow for parts of South Texas but it seems a bit suspect as temperatures in the 925 and 850 levels look to be above freezing.

You, being a grizzled veteran, know the models will flip/flop countless times before the event. You just might get your snow yet RGV!!!

I sure hope so! With this last Arctic Front for my area the models were about 3 to 5 degrees too warm with 2M Temperatures

[wxman57]

Generally speaking, doesn't a coastal low shut off moisture to North Texas? Will that be a factor in this pattern should it develop?

The coastal low (west Gulf low) will produce heaviest precip within 100-150 miles (or so) to its north. The upper-level low can produce precip north of the surface low when it passes.

12Z EC only forecasts 32F for most of Houston Thursday. I think it's too "warm". It also forecasts nearly 3" of snow just west of Corpus Christi with surface temps 35-38F and 850mb temps about 41F (and 925mb - 2000ft temps around 35-36F). I suppose it always snows in Europe with temps above freezing up through around 7000-8000 ft...