Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Rgv20]

18z GFS rolling in now ... not that I'm a big fan of any 18z model run, but this one looks a bit colder than the 12z run and has frozen precip deeper into south central/south Texas by 12z Saturday.

It does show a nice surprise just SE of Eagle Pass on Thursday Morning! It has mid 30s with light Rain for my area during the same time frame..

[srainhoutx]

What the heck is a "MESOSCALE SNOW BAND" in laymans terms please?

Meso means small or localized. Think of it as when we see severe weather events and even in winter weather events, the Storm Prediction Center or the WPC (Weather Prediction Center) will issue a Mesoscale Discussion. It is for a geographically specific area.

[Portastorm]

The plot thickens ... NWSFO EWX now appears concerned. Relevant snippet from its just issued AFD:

AN IMPACT CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL CENTER ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY
AND POSSIBLY THE I-35 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING
SATURDAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENTS ON OVERALL
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT BUT DO AGREE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN IF ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT
COINCIDE. CONTINUED SPLIT H5 FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A
REINFORCING LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR INTRUSION FRIDAY FROM A STRONG
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LINGERING ENERGY
REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. OF NOTE...IS THAT RAW MODEL
OUTPUT AND MEX/EC MOS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS...PLACING THE FREEZING LINE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS NEW YEARS DAY EVENT. IT APPEARS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...INCLUDING METRO
AUSTIN.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN
OVERALL PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. THE GFS BRINGS A
BETTER CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE AND A GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENT SIGNAL THAT SUPPORTS HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES. THE EC
HOLDS ONTO MUCH OF THE ENERGY BACK ACROSS MEXICO WHICH IT HAS A
TENDENCY TO DO. BOTH GFS/EC HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH THE EC
TRENDING WETTER FARTHER NORTH. THE CANADIAN SIDES MORE TOWARDS THE
EC BUT DOES SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO NEAR ONE TENTH FARTHER SOUTH. THIS IMPACT TIME
FRAME HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE HWO TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER
UPDATES. THE GFS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO AT THIS POINT
WITH EC/GEM EQUATING TO LOWER OVERALL AMOUNTS. YET...DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER...ESPECIALLY IF OVER A METRO
AREA...IMPACTS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE. IT IS ENCOURAGED TO STAY
UP WITH THE LATEST CONCERNING THIS TIME FRAME.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Watch it be right over DFW airport and points 25 miles north and south. Because I have to be there on Friday. #Murphy'sLaw

[gpsnowman]

Have a trip planned for San Marcos leaving Friday afternoon coming back Sunday after the Cowboy game. Having second thoughts.......I-35 is awful enough on a sunny day. Imagine that highway frozen with ice and snow. No thanks. Still have a couple of days to think about it. Sure would hate to miss a snowstorm here.

[weatherdude1108]

The plot thickens ... NWSFO EWX now appears concerned. Relevant snippet from its just issued AFD:

AN IMPACT CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL CENTER ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY
AND POSSIBLY THE I-35 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING
SATURDAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENTS ON OVERALL
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT BUT DO AGREE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN IF ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT
COINCIDE. CONTINUED SPLIT H5 FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A
REINFORCING LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR INTRUSION FRIDAY FROM A STRONG
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LINGERING ENERGY
REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. OF NOTE...IS THAT RAW MODEL
OUTPUT AND MEX/EC MOS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS...PLACING THE FREEZING LINE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS NEW YEARS DAY EVENT. IT APPEARS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...INCLUDING METRO
AUSTIN.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN
OVERALL PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. THE GFS BRINGS A
BETTER CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE AND A GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENT SIGNAL THAT SUPPORTS HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES. THE EC
HOLDS ONTO MUCH OF THE ENERGY BACK ACROSS MEXICO WHICH IT HAS A
TENDENCY TO DO. BOTH GFS/EC HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH THE EC
TRENDING WETTER FARTHER NORTH. THE CANADIAN SIDES MORE TOWARDS THE
EC BUT DOES SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO NEAR ONE TENTH FARTHER SOUTH. THIS IMPACT TIME
FRAME HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE HWO TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER
UPDATES. THE GFS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO AT THIS POINT
WITH EC/GEM EQUATING TO LOWER OVERALL AMOUNTS. YET...DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER...ESPECIALLY IF OVER A METRO
AREA...IMPACTS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE. IT IS ENCOURAGED TO STAY
UP WITH THE LATEST CONCERNING THIS TIME FRAME.

I was just about to post that. You beat me to the punch! I noticed the "...PLACING THE FREEZING LINE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NEW YEARS DAY EVENT" blurb.

[Portastorm]

Well, it's what we have been saying here today, right? I think many of us believe this airmass will be colder than the last one ... at least for the I-35 corridor and areas east/southeast. The big key will be what does the Baja low do and does a coastal low develop. Two big questions which will have big impacts on the sensible weather as srainhoutx says.

[gboudx]

Watch it be right over DFW airport and points 25 miles north and south. Because I have to be there on Friday. #Murphy'sLaw

You can bet it will be happen almost directly over Jerry World in Arlington with the College Football National Championship game on Monday.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'll be in San Antonio Friday thru Sunday at Hyatt Hill Country Resort.. Wonder if I can play golf in the sleet?

[Brent]

Watch it be right over DFW airport and points 25 miles north and south. Because I have to be there on Friday. #Murphy'sLaw

You can bet it will be happen almost directly over Jerry World in Arlington with the College Football National Championship game on Monday.

Yes I've had that date highlighted on the calendar for weeks now and now we have a storm.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion..

LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RANGING FROM
THE UPPER TO MID 30S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL TX BORDER AND LOW 30S
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. DUE TO THE WINDS INCREASING AND LOW
TEMPS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT FORECAST
PACKAGE AS THE "FEEL LIKE" TEMPS DROP TO THE MID 20S OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE LOW 30S ALONG THE RIVER. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH FOR THIS COLD TEMPS TO REALIZED.

[Lagreeneyes03]

I'll be in San Antonio Friday thru Sunday at Hyatt Hill Country Resort.. Wonder if I can play golf in the sleet?

Well if all else fails maybe they'll let you slosh in the lazy river like it's a slush puppie..

[ndale]

EWX now has freezing rain in my forecast for Friday night and Sat.

[Brent]

For the laugh for the day:

[Portastorm]

What's so funny, I drew that map?!

[gpsnowman]

If that map verified I-35 would look like war zone!

Orangeblood mentioned yesterday to look out for something in the long range. Maybe this is it.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'll be in San Antonio Friday thru Sunday at Hyatt Hill Country Resort.. Wonder if I can play golf in the sleet?

Well if all else fails maybe they'll let you slosh in the lazy river like it's a slush puppie..

I suggested that to my wife... I would do it. I'm going to Bettles, Alaska next month to go dog sledding in the Arctic Circle.

[BigB0882]

Is that snow from this weekend system or something long range, though? It appears to be valid from 84 to 192 hours. That covers this weekend. It may not have anything to do with a long range storm.

[gpsnowman]

Is that snow from this weekend system or something long range, though? It appears to be valid from 84 to 192 hours. That covers this weekend. It may not have anything to do with a long range storm.

I was looking at the date on the end. Maybe I read it wrong.

[aggiecutter]

From the Sheveport AFD:

BUT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE NIGHTTIME HRS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING MAY LEAD TO A WINTRY MIX NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.