Texas Winter 2014-2015

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Porta... Handicap me some ice for San Antonio on Friday Night/Sat....

[Portastorm]

Porta... Handicap me some ice for San Antonio on Friday Night/Sat....

Doing what I can, brother, to get you a nice sleet/freezing rain mix on the NW side of San Antone.

[dhweather]

I said decades. And I simply do not believe that the fracking in the Barnett Shale has not played a role in the dramatic jump in activity since 2008. I've got two minors in statistics, and statistically speaking, the exponential increase in seismic activity isn't a "it just happened" event. I'm also open to the thought that the seemingly endless drought has contributed to this as well - dried out soils at multiple depths are going to shift. The lone pre-fracking earthquake - 1981, right after the summer from hell.


From the USGS - in the last 115 years in Irving: One in 1981, then 38 since 2008.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/#{%22feed%22%3A%221420603452106%22%2C%22sort%22%3A%22newest%22%2C%22mapposition%22%3A[[32%2C-97]%2C[33%2C-95]]%2C%22viewModes%22%3A{%22help%22%3Afalse%2C%22list%22%3Atrue%2C%22map%22%3Atrue%2C%22settings%22%3Afalse}%2C%22autoUpdate%22%3Afalse%2C%22search%22%3A{%22id%22%3A%221420603452106%22%2C%22name%22%3A%22Search%20Results%22%2C%22isSearch%22%3Atrue%2C%22params%22%3A{%22starttime%22%3A%221900-12-31%2000%3A00%3A00%22%2C%22maxlatitude%22%3A33%2C%22minlatitude%22%3A32%2C%22maxlongitude%22%3A-95%2C%22minlongitude%22%3A-97%2C%22minmagnitude%22%3A1%2C%22endtime%22%3A%222015-01-07%2023%3A59%3A59%22%2C%22orderby%22%3A%22time%22}}}




time,latitude,longitude,depth,mag,magType,nst,gap,dmin,rms,net,id,updated,place,type
2015-01-07T02:12:16.130Z,32.8461,-96.9117,4.04,2.7,ml,,131,0.534,0.54,us,usc000tcai,2015-01-07T04:02:00.028Z,"4km NE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2015-01-07T02:11:17.600Z,32.8302,-96.894,5,2.9,mb_lg,,65,0.583,0.67,us,usc000tcag,2015-01-07T03:59:21.242Z,"5km ENE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2015-01-07T00:52:09.060Z,32.8373,-96.8898,5,3.6,mb_lg,,36,0.579,0.57,us,usc000tca7,2015-01-07T04:01:48.994Z,"6km ENE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2015-01-06T21:10:31.380Z,32.8357,-96.9005,5.16,3.5,mb_lg,,55,0.575,0.51,us,usc000tc7z,2015-01-07T03:55:54.538Z,"5km ENE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2015-01-02T02:29:03.510Z,32.8424,-96.9034,1.56,2.4,mb_lg,,64,0.568,0.4,us,usc000tb7y,2015-01-07T03:13:37.287Z,"5km NE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-12-30T14:10:09.310Z,32.8354,-96.9115,4,2.8,mb_lg,,64,0.536,0.62,us,usc000tash,2015-01-07T02:27:18.033Z,"4km NE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-12-20T05:08:11.360Z,32.8316,-96.9143,2.69,2.4,mb_lg,,78,0.557,0.48,us,usc000t8n5,2014-12-20T18:17:32.438Z,"3km ENE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-12-19T16:38:29.170Z,32.8444,-96.8988,3.12,2.4,mb_lg,,77,0.566,0.41,us,usc000t8bj,2014-12-30T22:51:17.672Z,"5km NE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-12-17T22:19:00.820Z,32.8495,-96.9026,5,2.6,mb_lg,,64,0.562,0.82,us,usc000t7sp,2014-12-18T20:22:49.339Z,"5km NE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-12-15T12:00:59.270Z,32.8398,-96.8948,3.64,2.7,mb_lg,,64,0.571,0.56,us,usc000t6wa,2015-01-06T21:54:40.857Z,"5km ENE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-12-12T03:25:38.970Z,32.8484,-96.8997,5,2.6,mb_lg,,64,0.565,0.43,us,usc000t5ux,2015-01-07T01:10:17.103Z,"5km NE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-12-10T04:44:48.610Z,32.8621,-96.9338,5,2,ml,,75,0.534,0.5,us,usc000t526,2015-01-05T00:29:53.321Z,"5km NNE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-12-02T15:36:21.880Z,32.836,-96.893,5,2.8,mb_lg,,,,0.4,us,usb000t26f,2015-01-06T21:48:03.808Z,"5km ENE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-11-25T22:39:23.000Z,32.8403,-96.8928,2.79,2.6,mb_lg,,64,0.551,0.87,us,usb000t02m,2015-01-07T00:53:15.832Z,"6km ENE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-11-25T05:47:53.460Z,32.8429,-96.8959,5,2.2,mb_lg,,96,0.569,1.08,us,usb000szsg,2014-12-19T00:31:43.137Z,"5km ENE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-11-24T13:06:36.030Z,32.846,-96.8955,5,2.4,mb_lg,,77,0.569,0.15,us,usb000szjr,2015-01-04T21:18:16.173Z,"6km NE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-11-23T21:40:46.530Z,32.8429,-96.9332,8.05,2.5,mb_lg,,56,0.539,0.45,us,usb000szen,2014-12-16T02:34:08.364Z,"3km NNE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-11-23T03:15:47.830Z,32.8346,-96.8959,4.36,3.3,mb_lg,,34,0.571,0.47,us,usb000sz6q,2015-01-06T23:19:13.514Z,"5km ENE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-11-15T19:19:46.410Z,32.8481,-96.9576,5,2.6,mb_lg,,76,0.518,0.53,us,usc000sxzp,2014-12-19T06:27:37.875Z,"3km NNW of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-11-10T09:04:05.600Z,32.8183,-96.8902,5,2.3,mb_lg,,79,0.58,1.1,us,usc000sw57,2014-12-18T13:20:19.648Z,"5km E of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-10-28T07:15:01.840Z,32.8431,-96.9058,5,2.4,mb_lg,,77,0.561,0.74,us,usb000sr8l,2014-12-08T17:19:52.025Z,"5km NE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-10-01T21:32:18.700Z,32.8499,-96.9824,6.56,2.1,mb_lg,,93,0.497,0.45,us,usb000sid5,2014-12-23T01:41:57.040Z,"5km NW of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-09-11T08:21:58.780Z,32.8153,-96.9178,5,2.8,mb_lg,,65,0.535,0.93,us,usb000sbaw,2015-01-07T01:15:57.840Z,"2km E of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2014-07-20T11:43:55.460Z,32.8386,-96.8669,3.23,2.2,mb_lg,,75,0.588,0.81,us,usb000rusj,2014-10-17T21:12:11.000Z,"6km WSW of University Park, Texas",earthquake
2014-04-17T19:44:20.040Z,32.8634,-96.9079,5,2.4,mb_lg,,76,0.548,0.33,us,usb000ppuk,2015-01-06T21:35:22.328Z,"6km NE of Irving, Texas",earthquake
2013-10-16T13:37:09.350Z,32.5272,-96.9032,5,2.4,mb_lg,,87,0.71,0.39,us,usb000keq6,2014-01-09T22:57:02.249Z,"1km W of Ovilla, Texas",earthquake
2013-03-17T23:41:23.800Z,32.491,-96.85,2.4,2.6,MbLg,11,122.4,0.71955054,0.64,us,usb000fmk3,2013-06-10T21:38:33.671Z,"3km S of Oak Leaf, Texas",earthquake
2013-02-24T21:07:50.600Z,32.446,-96.987,5.1,2.7,MbLg,14,90,0.59917629,1.63,us,usc000fckx,2013-06-10T21:18:57.619Z,"4km S of Midlothian, Texas",earthquake
2013-02-24T12:56:02.900Z,32.527,-96.911,5,2.6,MbLg,27,50.4,0.70877076,0.73,us,usc000fch3,2013-06-10T21:18:12.440Z,"2km W of Ovilla, Texas",earthquake
2013-02-24T10:35:52.200Z,32.462,-96.912,5,2.5,MbLg,15,90,0.65936342,1.21,us,usc000fcgj,2013-06-10T21:18:06.598Z,"7km SSW of Ovilla, Texas",earthquake
2013-01-23T04:16:20.790Z,32.882,-96.98,16.1,3,mblg,17,75,,1.09,pde,pde20130123041620790_16,2013-03-16T00:10:05.146Z,"northern Texas",earthquake
2012-10-01T03:41:09.970Z,32.841,-96.93,5,2.3,mblg,11,91.4,,1.13,pde,pde20121001034109970_5,2014-04-10T12:07:07.155Z,"northern Texas",earthquake
2012-09-30T04:09:02.720Z,32.815,-96.962,5,3.1,mblg,29,55,,0.72,pde,pde20120930040902720_5,2014-04-10T12:06:19.632Z,"northern Texas",earthquake
2012-09-30T04:05:00.930Z,32.842,-96.976,5,3.4,mblg,29,55,,0.68,pde,pde20120930040500930_5,2014-04-10T12:06:16.146Z,"northern Texas",earthquake
2012-01-06T06:11:47.800Z,32.782,-96.685,5,2.1,mblg,12,188.9,,0.98,pde,pde20120106061147800_5,2014-04-10T10:21:05.480Z,"northern Texas",earthquake
2011-08-01T04:33:26.360Z,32.913,-96.929,5,2.2,mblg,5,147.1,,1.4,pde,pde20110801043326360_5,2013-03-16T00:04:17.106Z,"northern Texas",earthquake
2008-11-01T11:54:30.190Z,32.874,-96.968,5,2.7,mblg,4,167.6,,0.61,pde,pde20081101115430190_5,2014-08-08T23:02:28.068Z,"northern Texas",earthquake
2008-10-31T05:33:45.620Z,32.871,-96.971,5,2.6,mblg,4,167.6,,0.22,pde,pde20081031053345620_5,2013-03-16T01:43:28.863Z,"northern Texas",earthquake
1981-11-06T12:36:40.460Z,32.021,-95.262,5,3.2,mblg,,,,0.8,pde,pde19811106123640460_5,2013-03-16T00:01:57.874Z,"northern Texas",earthquake

[Brent]

[dhweather]

Porta... Handicap me some ice for San Antonio on Friday Night/Sat....

Doing what I can, brother, to get you a nice sleet/freezing rain mix on the NW side of San Antone.

1) When is the press conference?

2) Grey Goose samples for attendees?

[SouthernMet]

Latest GFS keeps Austin metro at or below freezing from friday evening through sunday morning, with an icy mess saturday morning. Looks plausible imo.

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 070412
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1012 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOURLY FORECAST PARAMETERS ON TRACK LATE THIS EVENING AND HAVE
ONLY REESTABLISHED THEIR TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
THERE ARE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST.
SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE RISEN TO 1055 MB ALONG ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
BORDER REGION OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS. THE PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES. HIGH PRESSURE IS BRIDGING THE ARCTIC
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY MIDDAY
INTO AFTERNOON. 18Z MODEL RUNS AND NEW 00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAINS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

[Ntxw]

Porta... Handicap me some ice for San Antonio on Friday Night/Sat....

Doing what I can, brother, to get you a nice sleet/freezing rain mix on the NW side of San Antone.

1) When is the press conference?

2) Grey Goose samples for attendees?

1. After the last debacle it may just be a quiet written statement us guest speakers notwithstanding. With cheap gas and all Champ the Charger needs some work.

2. Heard it will be Smirnoff this year with the Ruble crash, discounted VODKA cold

[Snowman67]

NAM comes in colder for the Houston area.



FXUS64 KHGX 070318
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
918 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED
THIS EVENING. MEW NAM GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER
FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMEPRATURES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE WILL
EAGERLY WAIT TO SEE WHAT NUMBERS THE GFS AND ECMWF GIVE US. HOPE YOU
ALL ENJOYED THE WARM JANUARY DAY TODAY.

[WeatherNewbie]

Thought maybe that north wind with the front just shook the house. Nope, just earthquake number 8 for the day.

[somethingfunny]

I'd like to avoid the fracking issue, maybe it contributes to weakening the pre-existing weak zones in the crust but there's got to be other factors combining as well to trigger this specific situation in Irving, and all I'm really interested in discussing is if any of those factors are meteorological.

I still wonder if increases in atmospheric pressure, or contracting soil as temperatures and humidities drop, are helping to trigger this. We all know that moisture and temperature can wreak havoc on our home foundations as the Texas soil constantly shifts and that's what makes me wonder if the same principles could apply on a grander scale to fault zones like the one that's acting up in Irving.

Side note, I'm pretty disappointed that I have not felt a single tremor here in Garland.

Regarding the wintry precip potential, I feel bullish. The Friday snow seems to be an atmospheric compression zone along the cold front, basically high pressure is going to be squeezing snowflakes out of a nearly bone-dry atmosphere along the frontal boundary. I feel optimistic for some of the good white stuff here or someplace nearby to here.

Sunday concerns me... I don't trust the temperature forecasts, I think we could easily end up below freezing for the whole duration.

[TexasF6]

Anyone thinking school should be dismissed early Friday out of safety & preparational concerns?

[Tammie]

Anyone thinking school should be dismissed early Friday out of safety & preparational concerns?

I can only speak for the Denton ISD about early release on school days. As a rule, you are allowed to pick your child up anytime after 10 a.m. The school buses run at normal dismissal times due to younger children who might be left home alone if busses run early. It's virtually impossible to contact all parents in the district to inform them of an early release and ensure the safety of the children if left alone at home after school.

The other option you have is to keep your child(red) home that day, even if schools do open. The Texas Education Agency considers a parent keeping a child home due to weather related issues an "excused" absence. I've always kept mine home because a) I don't want to drive on the roads once the frozen precip starts, and b) I don't want mine riding a bus home after 5 hours of icing/snow.

Keep an eye on the radar and do what's best for your family. School attendance is important, but our children's safety is more important!

[Portastorm]

000
WWUS84 KEWX 071019
SPSEWX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
419 AM CST WED JAN 7 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-072300-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
419 AM CST WED JAN 7 2015

...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

TWO SURGES OF ARCTIC AIRMASSES WILL BRING MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING WITH IT A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. AS OF TODAY...THE
FORECASTED LOCATION OF THE FREEZING LINE SATURDAY MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR A LANGTRY TO UVALDE TO FLORESVILLE TO
GIDDINGS LINE. AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE ARE FORECASTED TO BE
BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND THIS IS WHERE MOST IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS...THERE COULD
BE ICING CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AND RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE FOR
ANY POSSIBLE FORECAST CHANGES.

$$

HAMPSHIRE

[weatherdude1108]

A very detailed Hampshire discussion:


000
FXUS64 KEWX 071124
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
524 AM CST WED JAN 7 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST WED JAN 7 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT IS
KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE CWA AT THE PRESENT TIME.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN PUNCH OF COLD AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND A BIT AND
WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MORNING. THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND VERY STRONG WINDS. CURRENT PRESSURE
READINGS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA ARE AVERAGING ABOUT 1026
MB BUT SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 1040 MB BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE
LARGE MAGNITUDE OF THE PRESSURE RISES...THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY
TIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SREF/HRRR/RUC ALL HAVE
SPEEDS SUSTAINED NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. BECAUSE OF THIS...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST UNDER THE CRITERIA
OF GREATER THAN 25 MPH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN
AFTER 00Z AND WE SHOULD SEE WEAKENING WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH THE HIGH WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO DEFINITELY PLAN
ACCORDINGLY THIS MORNING.

THIS FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH
DEWPOINT VALUES DROPPING INTO THE THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 15 DEGREES
BY TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS IN THE HILL COUNTRY. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES TOMORROW
MORNING IN THE TEENS.

THE UPPER PATTERN CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SNAP OF COLD
ARCTIC AIR IS SETUP BY A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM NEAR NEW MEXICO
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE REST OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS THERE IS
A SLOWLY MOVING TROUGH THAT WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH WILL BE NEARING WEST TEXAS WITH DIFFLUENT
FLOW OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY
LIMITED AT THE SURFACE...BUT HIGH RES MODELS ARE HINTING AT ONE
OR TWO CELLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE SILENT 10
POPS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO MOISTURE CONCERNS. HOWEVER...IF ONE
SHOWER GETS STRONG ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE BRIEF SLEET ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...AS EVAPORATION WOULD COOL THE COLUMN BELOW 900
MB. NO IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED...AND AGAIN THIS IS ONLY ABOUT A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRING.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. HOWEVER...ANOTHER PIECE OF STRONG ENERGY IN
THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL BRING DOWN ANOTHER
STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOISTEN AND WE COULD START TO
SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF ACTIVITY REACHING THE SURFACE.
WILL SIDE WITH CONSENSUS REGARDING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHERE
POPS ARE FORECAST. IF TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES
COLDER...FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND EVEN IF FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR...IMPACTS
WOULD BE MINIMAL.

THINGS ARE GETTING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING WITH THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH HAD BEEN BASICALLY BLOCKED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
FINALLY EJECT EAST...BRINGING UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
INCREASING THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL LIFT AS WARM AND MOIST AIR IS LIFTED ABOVE THE COLD
ARCTIC AIRMASS. AS WITH ANY POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...THERE ARE MANY QUESTIONS LEFT TO BE ANSWERED
AND WILL TRY TO ANSWER THESE AS BEST AS POSSIBLE.

FIRST...IS THE QUESTION OF TEMPERATURES. THE FREEZING LINE IS MOST
LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
LOCATION OF IT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CRUCIAL. MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE FREEZING LINE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA
BORDER. THE ACTUAL MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
KEEP THE FREEZING LINE SOMEWHERE NEAR A DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO TO
GIDDINGS LINE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL HAVE THE FREEZING LINE
SATURDAY MORNING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE RAW OUTPUT OF
THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH AS WHAT THE
MOS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS. THIS IS MOST IN PART TO THE FACT
THAT DEW POINTS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
30S...SO THERE IS NOT MUCH ROOM FOR COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
EVAPORATION. ALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
NOON ENDING THE THREAT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

SECOND...IS THE QUESTION OF PRECIP TYPE FOR AREAS NEAR AND BELOW
FREEZING. THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY WITH VARIOUS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TELLS US THAT ALL PRECIP WILL ORIGINATE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AS THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...A LAYER ABOVE FREEZING EXISTS BETWEEN 750 AND 900 MB
THAT WOULD MELT ALL PRECIP. THE ATMOSPHERE THEN GOES BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 900 MB WITH TEMPS NEAR -5C JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE
DEPTH OF THE SUB-FREEZING LAYER AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR
SHOULD LEAD TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AND PERHAPS SLEET
BEING THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE FOR THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY...WHERE THE LAYER BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 900 MB IS THE
COLDEST. WILL FORECAST SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR THE HILL COUNTRY
AND JUST FREEZING RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLEET BEING THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE.

THIRD...IS THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THE BEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE ECMWF IS THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS DUE TO ITS WEAKENING OF THE
TROUGH...BUT SEEMS TO SLOWLY COMING INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH THE
OTHER GUIDANCE. WPC IS FORECASTING EVENT TOTALS OF ABOUT A TENTH
TO 0.25 FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO 0.5 INCHES OR GREATER FOR THE
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
WHERE THERE IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT WITH IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST. FOR THE I-35
CORRIDOR TO SAN ANTONIO...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL BE TO
ELEVATED SURFACES. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO CHECK THE
LATEST FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AS THE FORECAST WILL
LIKELY DEVIATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ALL TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

HAMPSHIRE

[Portastorm]

And I'm going to make a prediction right now. EWX will eventually lower max temps for Saturday and extend the wintry precip threat throughout the day. Frankly, I don't see us getting above freezing on Saturday. I'm beginning to think this will be a fairly significant event.

[Tammie]

Looks like the NWS FW has moved the North Texas mesoscale snow band further south. Fort Worth and areas slightly south may get in on that fun. Sure liked it better when the Red River and Fort Worth were the effected areas. It put Denton right in the bullseye for some winter fun. Sigh...

[Ntxw]

Looks like the NWS FW has moved the North Texas mesoscale snow band further south. Fort Worth and areas slightly south may get in on that fun. Sure liked it better when the Red River and Fort Worth were the effected areas. It put Denton right in the bullseye for some winter fun. Sigh...

Don't feel too bad, its not something that can accurately be predicted until the actual band forms. Lots of time and plus there will be many more chances the next several weeks as the threats keep coming. We have settled into a true winter pattern. Keep knocking anf eventually one will work.

[Tammie]

Looks like the NWS FW has moved the North Texas mesoscale snow band further south. Fort Worth and areas slightly south may get in on that fun. Sure liked it better when the Red River and Fort Worth were the effected areas. It put Denton right in the bullseye for some winter fun. Sigh...

Don't feel too bad, its not something that can accurately be predicted until the actual band forms. Lots of time and plus there will be many more chances the next several weeks as the threats keep coming. We have settled into a true winter pattern. Keep knocking anf eventually one will work.

Do you feel the precip predicted is being predicted on the light side by the NWS? I see more winter moisture possibly being available than what they are saying. Am I reading things wrong, or are they erring on the side of caution?

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Wind Advisory in effect all counties this afternoon

Gale Warning in effect all coastal and offshore waters today and tonight

Freezing rain and sleet possible north of a line from Columbus to Livingston Friday night/Saturday.

Discussion:
Massive 1055mb arctic high crashing through the plains with leading edge of the arctic front approaching the northern counties of SE TX. Dense cold air mass is lagging the wind shift by about 3-4 hours and the onset of strong cold air advection and falling temperatures will be midday across SE TX. Very strong winds of 25-35mph with gust to 40mph will onset with the cold air advection especially along and west of I-45 and across the coastal counties. Cold air advection will drive the freezing line southward this afternoon and into SE TX this evening and across nearly all of the area by Thursday morning. Still looking at some mid and high level clouds and gusty winds overnight to help prevent the bottom from falling out of the temperatures…but a widespread freeze is nearly certain at this point. Winds in the 10-15mph range overnight will lower wind chill values into the 10’s across much of the area Thursday morning.

Main forecast concerns this morning as how cold tonight and then how cold this weekend with a secondary surge of arctic air and P-type across the region.

Low Temperatures Thursday Morning:

North of HWY 105: 19-25
North of US 59: 26-30
Inside Beltway 8: 29-32
N of HWY 35: 29-32
Beaches: 32-35

Area north of Hwy 105 will likely experience sub freezing conditions for 8-14 hours with hard freeze conditions of 25 or below for up to 2-6 hours. North of US 59 will likely see freezing temperatures of 6-8 hours.

Precautions for sub-freezing temperatures should be rushed to completion today.

Friday-Saturday:

Weak short wave will cross the area Friday morning with sub freezing temperatures in place. Feel the low level air mass will be very dry and little if any precipitation will reach the ground. If it does it would likely be in the College Station to Livingston area and fall as sleet or sleet/freezing rain mix. Think this is overall a very low threat.

Bigger concern is taking shape for Friday night into Saturday as a stronger short wave and secondary arctic surge moves across the region.
Will have to go ahead and introduce freezing/frozen precipitation into the area for Friday night and Saturday morning. Latest guidance has been trending colder and colder with incoming secondary arctic surge Friday afternoon and now has at least the northern ½ of the area subject to freezing temperatures overnight Friday into Saturday morning. GFS is most aggressive in pushing the surface freezing line to I-10 and even south of that to the west of Houston supporting freezing rain very far south. Other models including the NAM are warmer by a degree or two and keep the precipitation liquid over Harris County.

I am becoming concerned that the models may be under-estimating the incoming cold air slightly since the trend since yesterday has been for colder and colder. Additionally very low dewpoints (25-30) suggest a bit of room for evaporational cooling of the air column to near freezing or below even if guidance temperatures suggest above freezing.

As for P-types warm nose in the mid levels supports a freezing rain sounding with a shallow freezing layer near the surface. Warm air advection processes will attempt to erode this surface freezing layer…but it is going to be hard to do. Could see some sleet mixed with the onset of the precipitation Friday night, but the overall profile is a freezing rain one.

For now will go with freezing rain and sleet mix Friday night into Saturday morning north of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston with some ice accumulation expected on elevated surfaces. Bridges and overpasses will be “very cold” from the hard freeze tonight in this area so ice accumulation on these surface is certainly possible.

Will keep all precipitation south of the Columbus to Livingston line liquid for now, but any additional cooling trends in the model guidance will require the freezing rain line to be adjusted southward close to metro Houston and the I-10 corridor.

Forecasted QPF amounts are concerning especially when dealing with freezing rain as 1-2 inches of liquid are expected over the region from late Friday-Monday. Critical period of Friday night/Saturday morning suggest at least .25-.50 of an inch of liquid QPF across the region and some of this will be in the form of ice across the northern counties. Would like to be more certain on surface temperatures before trying to hammer out ice accumulations.

Not sure temperatures will warm much if at all on Saturday and this could linger freezing rain and ice potential into Saturday night and Sunday allowing greater accumulation amounts across those northern areas.

As with all winter weather events in this area there is a large amount of uncertainty and the difference of 1-2 degrees will make the difference between an ice storm and all rain.