Texas Winter 2014-2015
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- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22987
- Age: 67
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- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
To demonstrate why you cannot trust the ECMWF snow predictions (on WeatherBell, for example, but elsewhere too) - it's forecasting about 1/2 inch of snow across SE TX and SW LA Sunday night. Checking it's own forecast for upper-level temperatures, it has 52 degrees at 2000 ft, 50 degrees at 5000 ft, and 32 degrees finally at 10,000 ft (700mb). So it says 1/2 inch of snow with the lower 10,000 ft of the atmosphere well above freezing. Right!
I see the same thing in the raw data from the ECMWF on my workstation, so it's not a WeatherBell issue.
PS - I sent Ryan Maue an email asking about this.
I see the same thing in the raw data from the ECMWF on my workstation, so it's not a WeatherBell issue.
PS - I sent Ryan Maue an email asking about this.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Portastorm wrote:I really think EWX needs to issue a Winter Storm Watch for Friday evening into Saturday for portions of its CWA. Technically the criteria is anywhere from 12 to 48 hours in advance of a "significant" winter storm event. With QPF values showing at least 0.25" of what will almost assuredly be all freezing rain/sleet ... and surface temps below freezing ... that would create a significant problem in the metro area for the general public. I know they won't as they'll be cautious and probably wait another model cycle or two ... but the more I'm seeing on the models and satellite, the more I'm thinking this one will really happen in Austin.
Yeah ... get your Charlie Brown/Lucy jpegs ready for Saturday if I fall on my backside again. But dangit, this time I'm really going to kick the football!
I suspect they will let one more cycle run, say the 00Z, then make that call. Doing so has significant consequences, so if I had to make that call, especially after seeing the 12Z runs, I would want to wait for the 0Z runs. If they issue one at 0600 CST tomorrow, that's plenty of time for a watch. Then a warning at 1800 CST if necessary.
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
wxman57 wrote:To demonstrate why you cannot trust the ECMWF snow predictions (on WeatherBell, for example, but elsewhere too) - it's forecasting about 1/2 inch of snow across SE TX and SW LA Sunday night. Checking it's own forecast for upper-level temperatures, it has 52 degrees at 2000 ft, 50 degrees at 5000 ft, and 32 degrees finally at 10,000 ft (700mb). So it says 1/2 inch of snow with the lower 10,000 ft of the atmosphere well above freezing. Right!
I see the same thing in the raw data from the ECMWF on my workstation, so it's not a WeatherBell issue.
PS - I sent Ryan Maue an email asking about this.
I've always wondered and maybe you can clarify. I mean the models don't actually output snow, sleet, zr etc just the qpf and temp profiles right? The wintry data is based on algorithms that are used by the translating medium right based on the interpretor not the actual model itself? I know different sources shows different amounts based on what method they use. So can we truly blame the model or elsewhere?
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- Category 5
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Shreveport AFD:
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...IS THE TIMEFRAME THAT COULD
GET INTERESTING DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. RIGHT
NOW...THERE IS MUCH AMBIGUITY ABOUT TIMING AND WHERE THE FREEZING
LINE SETS UP. POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR COULD
HAVE A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR SEEING FREEZING RAIN...ELSEWHERE WE
NEED TO SEE MORE FORECAST RUNS TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...IS THE TIMEFRAME THAT COULD
GET INTERESTING DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. RIGHT
NOW...THERE IS MUCH AMBIGUITY ABOUT TIMING AND WHERE THE FREEZING
LINE SETS UP. POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR COULD
HAVE A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR SEEING FREEZING RAIN...ELSEWHERE WE
NEED TO SEE MORE FORECAST RUNS TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
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- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22987
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Ntxw wrote:I've always wondered and maybe you can clarify. I mean the models don't actually output snow, sleet, zr etc just the qpf and temp profiles right? The wintry data is based on algorithms that are used by the translating medium right based on the interpretor not the actual model itself? I know different sources shows different amounts based on what method they use. So can we truly blame the model or elsewhere?
That's right. The models forecast precipitation and temperatures across the atmosphere but not freezing/frozen precip. Somewhere along the line, a programmer takes the model output and defines what conditions produce different types of precip. One major problem is that these adjustments (algorithms) are generally the same for anywhere on the globe. But different areas (northern U.S. vs. Gulf Coast) may have different requirements for sleet or snow. An algorithm that works up north may not work well down south.
I just don't get where on Earth snow falls with temps well above freezing in the lower 10,000 ft, though...
A similar difference may occur with radar data and hail projections. Down south, it takes a higher reflectivity for hail than up north.
One size doesn't fit all when decoding model data.
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FXUS64 KFWD 072138
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A 1055+ SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ROLL SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS
REMAIN QUITE GUSTY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 MPH AFTER SUNSET AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
DECOUPLES. THE WIND ADVISORY SHOULD LIKEWISE BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 PM. NORTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL ENGULF THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF RETURN-FLOW
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TO THE
GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
30S AND 40S FOR TOMORROW/S AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL SEND ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS YOU APPROACH THE RED RIVER.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SHOW A MIX OF SLIGHT SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COMANCHE TO WACO TO ATHENS LINE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXIST IN THE LATTER OF THESE LOCATIONS WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
LEVELS RESIDE. THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR TRAVEL CONCERNS...THOUGH AT
THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIKELY. HOWEVER...IF WE GET A LOCALLY HEAVIER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE FRONT...WE COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE OVER THESE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND DRIER AIR ENCOMPASSES THE AREA.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS
SUNDAY...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT /WHICH WILL BE DRAPED
ALONG THE TX & LA COASTAL REGION/ WILL BRING A SURGE OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIP FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS AS COLD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING. AS THE DAY WEARS ON SUNDAY...WE EXPECT ALL RAIN
AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE MID 30S. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A 1055+ SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ROLL SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS
REMAIN QUITE GUSTY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 MPH AFTER SUNSET AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
DECOUPLES. THE WIND ADVISORY SHOULD LIKEWISE BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 PM. NORTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL ENGULF THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF RETURN-FLOW
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TO THE
GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
30S AND 40S FOR TOMORROW/S AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL SEND ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS YOU APPROACH THE RED RIVER.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SHOW A MIX OF SLIGHT SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COMANCHE TO WACO TO ATHENS LINE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXIST IN THE LATTER OF THESE LOCATIONS WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
LEVELS RESIDE. THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR TRAVEL CONCERNS...THOUGH AT
THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIKELY. HOWEVER...IF WE GET A LOCALLY HEAVIER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE FRONT...WE COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE OVER THESE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND DRIER AIR ENCOMPASSES THE AREA.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS
SUNDAY...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT /WHICH WILL BE DRAPED
ALONG THE TX & LA COASTAL REGION/ WILL BRING A SURGE OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIP FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS AS COLD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING. AS THE DAY WEARS ON SUNDAY...WE EXPECT ALL RAIN
AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE MID 30S. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
wxman57 wrote:Ntxw wrote:I've always wondered and maybe you can clarify. I mean the models don't actually output snow, sleet, zr etc just the qpf and temp profiles right? The wintry data is based on algorithms that are used by the translating medium right based on the interpretor not the actual model itself? I know different sources shows different amounts based on what method they use. So can we truly blame the model or elsewhere?
That's right. The models forecast precipitation and temperatures across the atmosphere but not freezing/frozen precip. Somewhere along the line, a programmer takes the model output and defines what conditions produce different types of precip. One major problem is that these adjustments (algorithms) are generally the same for anywhere on the globe. But different areas (northern U.S. vs. Gulf Coast) may have different requirements for sleet or snow. An algorithm that works up north may not work well down south.
I just don't get where on Earth snow falls with temps well above freezing in the lower 10,000 ft, though...
A similar difference may occur with radar data and hail projections. Down south, it takes a higher reflectivity for hail than up north.
One size doesn't fit all when decoding model data.
Thanks, instantweathermaps and earl barker's site I've noticed consistently are good at snow maps. They both use the Kuchera method and over the years its been good it seems though neither provides Euro data. But for other guidance its usually not as liberal with colorful snowfall maps unless its really on the mark.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Just read the afternoon AFD out of EWX. I'm absolutely stunned by this forecast discussion. I will follow our rules about not criticizing professional mets or the NWS but I guess these folks didn't see the updated maps out of the NWS Weather Prediction Center which show a likelihood of 1/4" freezing rain or more in the Austin area on Saturday. Models drying things out? Yeah, one cycle of models ... the 12z only. I cannot say anything more than just ... WOW!
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE REASONING
IS BASED ON AN INCREASE ON GULF MOISTURE AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH DIFFERENCES MAINLY ON
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWS A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECM/CMC AND NAM WITH WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO PIN POINT THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PERIOD AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE DRYING
THINGS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. AT
THIS TIME...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DEL RIO TO DEVINE TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE WITH VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE REASONING
IS BASED ON AN INCREASE ON GULF MOISTURE AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH DIFFERENCES MAINLY ON
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWS A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECM/CMC AND NAM WITH WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO PIN POINT THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PERIOD AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE DRYING
THINGS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. AT
THIS TIME...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DEL RIO TO DEVINE TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE WITH VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

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- Rgv20
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2466
- Age: 39
- Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
- Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx
Lengthy but an informative discussion out of the NWS in Brownsville...Rain/Sleet now forecast in my area this weekend!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
..MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
.SHORT TERM/NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS GETTING THROUGH CRP WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING.
EXPECT MORE GUSTY WINDS IN A FEW HOURS FROM NOW WHEN THE TIGHTER
GRADIENT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARM UP
INTO THE 60S DUE TO THE SLOWER TRACK OF THIS FRONT MOVING SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY COULD WARM UP A DEGREE MORE
BEFORE THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR OBSERVATION
SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FALLING OVER ZAPATA COUNTY.
DO THINK THIS BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL EXPAND AND MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CWA. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS OF THIS UPDATE...LEAN TOWARDS THE
COOLER GFS FOR THE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WHICH LOWER TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES MORE THAN WHAT I INHERITED. DO THINK THIS COLD AIR MASS IS
VERY UNUSUAL AND MODELS DO NOT HAVE A WELL HANDLE OF THE STRENGTH
OF THIS COLD AIR. SINCE WE REACH THE FREEZING TEMPS ESPECIALLY TO
THE NORTH...ADDED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF
ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTY. THE TEMPERATURES ARE
RELATIVELY WARM AT THIS TIME AND EVEN WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...IT WILL NEED TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A LONG PERIOD OF
TIME FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR BUT SOME SLEET COULD BE SEEN
WITH NO HIGH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE CWA...NORTH GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HRS THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE MAINLY FAVORING THE RGV AND COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT THIS RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE BUT IT WILL BE
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TYPE. LOW TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN COLD WITH
MID 30S TO THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND LOW 40S IN THE VALLEY.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MESSY WEEKEND...SMALL POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIP IMPACT.
A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US.
SURFACE RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL SEND A SHALLOW...BUT
SOMEWHAT STRONG...COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND AT THE SAME TIME A
CLOSED...PARTIALLY CUT OFF...UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
TEXAS. THIS LOW IS PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND
WILL ENHANCED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN IT THAT WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY
STRONG CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE.
WHAT THAT RESULTS IN IS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR AT THE
SURFACE...AND FAIRLY STRONG COASTAL TROUGHING/CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE WATERS PICK UP TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER LAND AND SEA. THE
850MB PATTERN THOUGH WILL BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF DEEPENING PLAINS
TROUGHING AHEAD OF A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EMERGING OFF THE ROCKIES.
THIS RESULTS IN NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IN SHALLOW COLD AIR...AND
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB FLOW...A PRETTY PRONOUNCED OVERRUNNING
PATTERN. THE DIP IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET HELPS KEEP A SFC LOW/COASTAL
TROUGH IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD OVERRUNNING
PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION. GFS/ECMWF/NAM SUPPORT AN
IMPRESIVE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WITH THE
NAM SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
STORM OVER LAND LATE AT THE END OF THE 12Z RUN. BELIEVE THE
OVERRUNNING AND CONVECTIVE BANDING WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT A LITTLE
MORE OVERALL PRECIP OVER LAND THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN
THE MODELS AND NUDGED QPF UP SLIGHTLY ACCORDINGLY. POPS WERE ALREADY
NICE AND HIGH AND KEPT THOSE ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE BETWEEN ABOUT 33 AND 38
DEGREES IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS DURING THIS STORM AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN SOME AREAS AND
INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION...BUT ADMITTEDLY
THIS PATTERN IS UNUSUAL...AND THE STORM PRETTY STRONG SO WE WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY WITH THE MAIN VARIABLE TO WATCH
BEING HOW COLD THE AIR WILL BE BEHIND THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT. THE
SYNOPTIC MODEL...WITH SHALLOW AIR UNDER MODESTLY WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW
LENDS ITSELF TO THE IDEA OF A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN IN ADDITION TO
SOME SLEET. THE EVENT IS JUST COMING INTO RANGE OF THE NAM MODEL
THOUGH AND ITS HIGHER VERTICAL RESOLUTION SHOULD BE A BIG HELP IN
DECIPHERING THOSE DETAILS. FOR NOW THOUGH IT DOES LOOK A LITTLE TOO
WARM TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WINTER PRECIP WISE.
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES LOW AND CLOUD
COVER RELATIVELY HIGH. THIS FRONT ARRIVES THOUGH ROUGHLY AT THE SAME
TIME AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD SO PERSISTENT COASTAL
TROUGHING APPEARS LESS LIKELY. A SOLID PUSH OF NORTHWEST WIND AND
COLD ADVECTION WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND KEPT MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION AND CANADIAN SOURCE AIRMASS.
/68-JGG/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015
..MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
.SHORT TERM/NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS GETTING THROUGH CRP WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING.
EXPECT MORE GUSTY WINDS IN A FEW HOURS FROM NOW WHEN THE TIGHTER
GRADIENT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARM UP
INTO THE 60S DUE TO THE SLOWER TRACK OF THIS FRONT MOVING SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY COULD WARM UP A DEGREE MORE
BEFORE THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR OBSERVATION
SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FALLING OVER ZAPATA COUNTY.
DO THINK THIS BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL EXPAND AND MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CWA. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS OF THIS UPDATE...LEAN TOWARDS THE
COOLER GFS FOR THE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WHICH LOWER TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES MORE THAN WHAT I INHERITED. DO THINK THIS COLD AIR MASS IS
VERY UNUSUAL AND MODELS DO NOT HAVE A WELL HANDLE OF THE STRENGTH
OF THIS COLD AIR. SINCE WE REACH THE FREEZING TEMPS ESPECIALLY TO
THE NORTH...ADDED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF
ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTY. THE TEMPERATURES ARE
RELATIVELY WARM AT THIS TIME AND EVEN WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...IT WILL NEED TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A LONG PERIOD OF
TIME FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR BUT SOME SLEET COULD BE SEEN
WITH NO HIGH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE CWA...NORTH GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HRS THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE MAINLY FAVORING THE RGV AND COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT THIS RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE BUT IT WILL BE
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TYPE. LOW TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN COLD WITH
MID 30S TO THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND LOW 40S IN THE VALLEY.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MESSY WEEKEND...SMALL POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIP IMPACT.
A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US.
SURFACE RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL SEND A SHALLOW...BUT
SOMEWHAT STRONG...COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND AT THE SAME TIME A
CLOSED...PARTIALLY CUT OFF...UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
TEXAS. THIS LOW IS PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND
WILL ENHANCED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN IT THAT WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY
STRONG CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE.
WHAT THAT RESULTS IN IS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR AT THE
SURFACE...AND FAIRLY STRONG COASTAL TROUGHING/CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE WATERS PICK UP TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER LAND AND SEA. THE
850MB PATTERN THOUGH WILL BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF DEEPENING PLAINS
TROUGHING AHEAD OF A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EMERGING OFF THE ROCKIES.
THIS RESULTS IN NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IN SHALLOW COLD AIR...AND
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB FLOW...A PRETTY PRONOUNCED OVERRUNNING
PATTERN. THE DIP IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET HELPS KEEP A SFC LOW/COASTAL
TROUGH IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD OVERRUNNING
PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION. GFS/ECMWF/NAM SUPPORT AN
IMPRESIVE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WITH THE
NAM SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
STORM OVER LAND LATE AT THE END OF THE 12Z RUN. BELIEVE THE
OVERRUNNING AND CONVECTIVE BANDING WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT A LITTLE
MORE OVERALL PRECIP OVER LAND THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN
THE MODELS AND NUDGED QPF UP SLIGHTLY ACCORDINGLY. POPS WERE ALREADY
NICE AND HIGH AND KEPT THOSE ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE BETWEEN ABOUT 33 AND 38
DEGREES IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS DURING THIS STORM AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN SOME AREAS AND
INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION...BUT ADMITTEDLY
THIS PATTERN IS UNUSUAL...AND THE STORM PRETTY STRONG SO WE WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY WITH THE MAIN VARIABLE TO WATCH
BEING HOW COLD THE AIR WILL BE BEHIND THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT. THE
SYNOPTIC MODEL...WITH SHALLOW AIR UNDER MODESTLY WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW
LENDS ITSELF TO THE IDEA OF A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN IN ADDITION TO
SOME SLEET. THE EVENT IS JUST COMING INTO RANGE OF THE NAM MODEL
THOUGH AND ITS HIGHER VERTICAL RESOLUTION SHOULD BE A BIG HELP IN
DECIPHERING THOSE DETAILS. FOR NOW THOUGH IT DOES LOOK A LITTLE TOO
WARM TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WINTER PRECIP WISE.
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES LOW AND CLOUD
COVER RELATIVELY HIGH. THIS FRONT ARRIVES THOUGH ROUGHLY AT THE SAME
TIME AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD SO PERSISTENT COASTAL
TROUGHING APPEARS LESS LIKELY. A SOLID PUSH OF NORTHWEST WIND AND
COLD ADVECTION WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND KEPT MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION AND CANADIAN SOURCE AIRMASS.
/68-JGG/
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- Category 2
- Posts: 558
- Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:53 am
- Location: Luxurious Lake Grapevine
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Portastorm wrote:Just read the afternoon AFD out of EWX. I'm absolutely stunned by this forecast discussion. I will follow our rules about not criticizing professional mets or the NWS but I guess these folks didn't see the updated maps out of the NWS Weather Prediction Center which show a likelihood of 1/4" freezing rain or more in the Austin area on Saturday. Models drying things out? Yeah, one cycle of models ... the 12z only. I cannot say anything more than just ... WOW!![]()
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE REASONING
IS BASED ON AN INCREASE ON GULF MOISTURE AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH DIFFERENCES MAINLY ON
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWS A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECM/CMC AND NAM WITH WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO PIN POINT THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PERIOD AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE DRYING
THINGS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. AT
THIS TIME...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DEL RIO TO DEVINE TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE WITH VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.
That's pretty much how the DFW TV mets just handled the latest runs as well, still keeping the qpf to I-30ish and south, but much, much drier on their "futurecast" precip model, even towards Waco where it seemed like they could get hammered. So quick to hug a dry model but slow to even suggest people prepare should models head the other way.
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I'm a Princess, not a forecaster.
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
I only trust two pro mets at EWX which is kinda sad. The two I like the most are the ones that put their names down and you all already know who they are. I am a bit shocked at today's afternoon discussion even with their pessimistic history.
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Resident Rain Miser
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
JDawg512 wrote:I only trust two pro mets at EWX which is kinda sad. The two I like the most are the ones that put their names down and you all already know who they are. I am a bit shocked that today's afternoon discussion even with their pessimistic history.
Let me couch it this way ... I have two buddies who work as meteorologists in the private sector ... and forecast for the Austin area along with other areas. BOTH of them told me today that they are deeply concerned about Friday night into Saturday. The phrase "ice storm" was used. These folks work for paying clients who don't pay you if you stink. They've been working in the field for awhile so they generally know of what they speak.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
- SouthernMet
- Category 3
- Posts: 857
- Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:23 pm
- Location: fort worth, tx
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
I too was shocked at EWX discussion this afternoon, not going to criticize, but could have been alot better imo.
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Nothing that SouthernMet posts, is an official forecast,nor does it reflect views of STORM2K.. SouthernMet is just adding to the great discussions on STORM2K.. Refer to NWS for official forecasts.
- HouTXmetro
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
- Location: District of Columbia, USA
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Classic, I remember this happening last year.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
- CentralTxAggie
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Fri Feb 07, 2014 11:03 am
- Location: TX
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- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1798
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
- Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
My weather station shows 20 degrees here with a dew point of -9. Too bad we won't see any precipitation this weekend. Still enjoying the cold though!
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