Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Dewpoint has dropped 12F from 56F to 44F in one hour in West Palm Beach as the continental airmass moves in. Graphic of FL dewpoints below, note the graphic is behind by 1.5 hours, look at those low dewpoints over Central Florida at this hour!

[psyclone]

it seems as if there is a secondary front ushering in the cold air and it's still a good ways to the north. right now it's 59 in tampa and just two degrees colder in Tallahassee. meanwhile just to the northwest in Dothan Al it's 45 with northwest winds gusting to nearly 30 mph. it's going to take awhile for this to work down the state. I don't expect it to make to the I-4 corridor until after (perhaps well after midnight). we'll probably hear it as the winds crank and temps dump but by then sunrise won't be far off so this is definitely not an ideal cold set up, especially as one heads down the state. in addition, with winds veering quickly to the northeast the peninsula will once again be bailed out as we will escape the standard "2 nights post cold front" ideal radiational cooling.

[northjaxpro]

You are correct psyclone. The actual 850mb arctic boundary is currently moving through extreme Southern GA and is on our doorstep here across Northand Northeast FL. This boundary should move throughwithin the next couple of hours from now across North Florida and you will know it when it passes through as the northerly winds will be gusting well over 20 mph and it will get over 30 mph+ during the day on Thursday. The Massive 1054 mb Arctic High is currently sitting over Nebraska and it will progress over to the TN Valley by late tomorrow.





Forecast looks good and on track. Lows expected in mid 20s inland Northeast Florida and low-mid 20s Suwanee River Valley and Big Bend with likely hard freeze experienced. Max temps tomorrow will really struggle to make it into the lower 40s across the northern peninsula with very strong cold advection through the day and wind chill index will be in the teens in the earlymorning and 20s during the entire day on Thursday.

Keeping my eye on to see if we get moisture to come in tomorrow night as the winds become onshore as the massive Arctic HP begins to move northeast away from the area late Thursday into Friday. Any stratocumulus deck can really help in possibly sparing the Jax area and keep temps just above freezing on Friday morning.

Central Florida looking at upper 30s to lower 40s along the I-4 corridor in the morning, except for Brooksville, Ocala and Leesburg, where cold air drainage will likely put temps at or slightly below the freeze mark at those locations tomorrow morning. Cold, windy day down there as well of course as max temps will only reach the lower 50s down there tomorrow with

[NDG]

Temperatures are not falling as quickly as the GFS had forecasted for this evening. I get the feeling that many of the GFS based MOS guidance will be too cold for tomorrow morning and could be closer to the 12z Euro solution calling for low 30s instead of low to mid 20s for the Ocala area, upper 20s to low 30s for NE FL and low to mid 20s for the rest of north FL instead of teens, we will verify in the morning how well or bad they did.

Here is today's 12z GFSX MOS guidance:

Jacksonville (JAX)
Thursday: low 24, high 45
Friday: low 30, high 57

Tallahassee
Thursday: low 19, high 44
Friday: low 29, high 57

Pensacola
Thursday: low 17, high 44
Friday: low 30, high 54

Ocala
Thursday: low 23, high 53
Friday: low 35, high 61

Tampa (TPA)
Thursday: low 36, high 58
Friday: low 45, high 67

Orlando (MCO)
Thursday: low 37, high 58
Friday: low 46, high 69

Naples
Thursday: low 46, high 67
Friday: low 53, high 73

Miami
Thursday: low 55, high 70
Friday: low 62, high 77

[gatorcane]

I am checking observations from the panhandle and there are very high winds there with gusts as high as 36 mph. Once these winds make it into central Florida, watch out. Expect temps to plummet.

[psyclone]

I am confident we won't go below 40 here. Hibernate for a handful of hours and it's over.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the 0z GFS completely drops the idea of bringing a strong cold front through Florida late next week.

January 14th can't come any sooner!

[TheStormExpert]

Going ahead to approx. 10 days into the future:

ECMWF GFS and GFS parallel and GEM have been consistently hinting at a major cold blast for Florida. Although the forecast output of these models has varied, the message seems to be the same: Major cold is potentially coming for Florida in about 10 days.

Additionally the teleconnections have been morphing towards a favorable outcome for Florida cold for the next 10 days and beyond.

I wanted to point out a run of the GEM model which shows record breaking cold for much of Florida:

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:
http://i60.tinypic.com/23maqtc.png

You can take the ECMWF off the list, it dropped such solution at today's 12z run.

We can also take the GFS off the list as of 0z as well.

[psyclone]

both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show normal temps...they have dropped the consistent above normal theme. the northwest gale has arrived here in Tampa bay...reminds me of the witch of November in my native Ohio.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning. Well let me start by saying this. This arctic spell may be brief, but my oh my it is packing quite a wallop early this morning across the region in North Florida. Looking at temps just to our north, widespread teens are established all across North and Central GA and in the Carolinas, with Atlanta checking in 11 degrees and Birmingham, AL at 8 degrees. A very impressive arctic and massive Arctic HP currently centered over Northern Arkansas is bringing in this chill on strong northerly winds which have gusted here at my locale as high as 36 mph earlier this morning.

Currently 28.2 degrees at my locale and temps will continue to fall at loeast for the next couple of hours before they really struggle to climb with the strong cold air advection ongoing today. Today wil be the coldest day of this winter season in these parts thus far as the 1050.mb Arctic High moves across the TN Valley today and by tonight will be centered to near the Mid Atlantic region. Along with the cold, the winds will be the big story today. Currently, winds are sustained 15-20mph with gusts up to 30 mph and higher in some instances. Wind chill index is currently ijn the upper teens here and will be mainly in the 20s for much of the day. The winds will veer to onshore(northeast) by mid afternoon as the Arctic HP moves east. Temperatures will really struggle today to warm as highs today will not make it above freezing across most areas of North Florida until about 11:00 am. Max temps here in Jax will struggle just to get to 40 degrees. NWS is as of now projecting 42 as tghe max today. Brrr!

Now, another interesting situation which was discussed yesterday concerns the. NAM model's persistence of shbowing a bit of isentropic lifting and a moist layer in the upper level midi to upper levels (overrrunning) occuring for late tonight and early Friday morning across interior North Florida and SE GA. Granted, any precip that would fall would be very lightn but if this were to happen, there could be a potential problem. Indeed, the NAM continues to show this scenario in this morning's runs and the NWS Jax mets had a very great discussion about this in this morning's AFD. While the NAM is notorious for its flaws concerning tropical weather, this model is respectible concerning winter-time synoptics, so while this possibility is slim, you can not comploetely discount it either. Will monitor closely ti see if other models will pick up on this bec0ause with such a cold dome of shallow air in place across inlterior areas of North Florida, any moisture able to saturate the mid levels and falls would be in the form of freezing rian or sleet. Hopefully nothing will co{ to that, but again will watch the models for that throughout the day.

Northeast winds will hopefully bring clouds in to help keep our temps up enough here in Jax to spare us a freeze for tomorrow morning. A coastal trough is forecast to develop just offshore tonight and it may even bring light rain showers along the immediate coast of Duval, St.Johns and Flagler countiies by tonight. However, areas west of HWY 301 will stilll get below freezing for Friday morning with temps in theupper 20s over those regions. THe onshore flow will hopefully keep lows tomorrow morning in the low-mid 30s.

It will be an interesting day across the region for sure. Wind chill will be felt statewide, altbough this cold spell will be brief as they all are, folks it is packing quite a wallop this morning. Trust me! It is wickedly cold out there today!!

[NDG]

Impressive temps in the Deep South indeed northjaxpro, Central and S FL escapes yet another what would have been a destructive freeze.
Temps across the State as of 7 AM, you can clearly see the winds already starting to switch across the coastal areas of the Atlantic moderating their temps this morning, and at h925 the winds are off the Atlantic all across central and southern FL.

[northjaxpro]

Currently 26.3 degrees at my locale, which is the morning low thius far.
BTW, off in the distance, I am noticing a stratocumulus deck coming onshore from off the Atlantic, so the winds indeed are already beginnijng to veer to the northeast here in NE FL, but it came too late late to spare us a hard freeze for this morning.

[gatorcane]

Nice analysis northjaxpro, I always like reading your discussions. The frozen precip possibility is interesting indeeded. To your point, this Arctic blast meant serious business as temps in Central Florida did indeed plummet as I expected with widespread upper 30s across the I4 corridor and all of Tampa Bay with Tampa right now at 37F, which represents a drop in temperature after sunrise (a rarity for Florida) and lower than what the NWS office in Tampa forecasted.

We also note the NE component to the flow at around 700-850MB starting which allowed mixing to happen which kept the east coast of Florida and especially SE coast of Florida much warmer than the rest of the state:

[NDG]

Nice analysis northjaxpro, I always like reading your discussions. The frozen precip possibility is interesting indeeded. To your point, this Arctic blast meant serious business as temps in Central Florida did indeed plummet as I expected with widespread upper 30s across the I4 corridor and all of Tampa Bay with Tampa right now at 37F, which represents a drop in temperature after sunrise (a rarity for Florida) and lower than what the NWS office in Tampa forecasted.

We also note the NE component to the flow at around 700-850MB starting which allowed mixing to happen which kept the east coast of Florida and especially SE coast of Florida much warmer than the rest of the state:

http://i58.tinypic.com/y2yt.png

The winds starting to come out the Atlantic are much closer to the surface than that, at around h925 on down. Winds at h70-85 are still from the NW, according to this morning's sounding.

[gatorcane]

NDG that they are based on that graphic, thanks for the correction. Here is a graphic of the dew points this morning and wow they are low especially West-Central Florida as the arctic air has invaded that region with no protection from the Atlantic. Temps struggling in the 40s still for that area of Florida with Tampa only at 46F with a wind chill of 40F at 10:53AM! There is a large temperature contrast across the state of Florida that is for sure. Temps are in the mid to upper 20s across the panhandle of Florida but are in the mid to upper 60s across South Florida at this hour.

[northjaxpro]

, that is right gatorcane. Big temp gradient across the state. Currently only 35.4 degrees at my home locale at the noon hour. Impressive CAA continuing for sure. Howevern winds are now out of the north-northeast at 20 with gusts to 30 mph + at times and I am just on the fringes of the stratocumulus deck, which has made it inland just east and to the south of my locale in North Jacksonville. So, I am expecting overcast conditions by later this afternoon over the entire Jax area east of Hwy 301. I am hopeful the onshore flow will keep the clouds in place through tonight to pare us from another significant freeze tomorrow morning. Wind chill temps currentlyin the low 20s Brr!!

Also awaiting the next runs concerning the remote and very slim possibilty of very light wintry precip over interior North and Northeast FL which I discussed earlier*with the NAM being consistently aggressive about the past couple of days.

[psyclone]

well I was wrong to bet against breaking 40. I saw a 38 here. we really dodged a bullet missing an advection freeze by literally only a few hours in the tampa bay region. yikes. Kudos the NWS for not pulling the fire alarm on what would have been a false alarm but...good grief that was a close shave. it actually doesn't feel too bad out there now, especially if you're out of the wind...like a crisp football day up north.

[northjaxpro]

There have been reports into the NWS office here in Jax of snow flurries late this morning and earlier this afternoon, mainly on the southeast end of the metro area. I have yet to observe any at my location out near the north end of Jax near where the NWS office is located, but interesting nonetheless.

Currently only 37 degrees currentlyat my locale. It looks like we will not make it to 40 today. Also, I am just now looking at the latest model runs concerning a slim potential of wintry precip across interior North Florida, so will analyze that a bit later.

EDIT: I am now observing very tiny snow grains/flurries at my locale. Just reported it in to the NWS office, and they are also seeing them there as well currently. They are melting on contact, but it is occuring. A ntersting sight nonetheless.

[gatorcane]

northjaxpro, wow snow flurries reported in NE Florida - pretty cool!

Snippet from NWS JAX:

Area Forecast Discussion
423
FXUS62 KJAX 081957
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

...ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE MOVING INLAND AS NE FLOW...ALONG WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ONSHORE...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S INLAND...SOME SNOW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS INLAND DUVAL COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS
FROM THE VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WARMING THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEARLY STEADY...ANY CHANCES OF SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/text.php?pil=AFD&sid=JAX

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I am witnessing it currently. It is pretty cool seeing them, but they are very tiny and melting on contact. Well, I certainly was not expecting it, but anytime we get an arctic airmass with the Arctic HP axis being due north of us currently, the onshore flow with the stratocumulus deck coming onshore can, if the conditions are right, yield to snow flurries. This happened in Volusia county a few years back as well, and fortunately for us here in Jax it so happened to be our turn to see this happen.