ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Text of the CPC weekly update. ONI is at +0.7C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

In case anyone missed the CPC 1/5/15 update here it is. Nino 3.4 is down from +0.7C last week to +0.5C this week. ONI is up to +0.7C meaning if by the next update it is over +0.5C El Nino will be declared.The question is if El Nino is declared how it will be Traditional or Modoki. If El Nino were up today it would be Modoki but let's see what happens in the next few weeks.

[cycloneye]

Let's see how the PDO is in the next mid month update after the last reading of +1.72. Will it continue to go up? Ntxw,what do you think? By the way,you have not been here in the past few weeks but of course you are more than welcome to continue posting your always thoughtful discussions.

[Ntxw]

Let's see how the PDO is in the next mid month update after the last reading of +1.72. Will it continue to go up? Ntxw,what do you think? By the way,you have not been here in the past few weeks but of course you are more than welcome to continue posting your always thoughtful discussions.

Sorry I've been not paying attention to ENSO lately because of other personal things and the activity in the Texas thread. It does appear the past Month or so there's been some waning with the Nino. ONI I think will still be enough given the 3 month average, ultimately this decides whether or not it is officially a Nino. It does look like there's a weak down welling oceanic Kelvin wave pushing in the WPAC. I don't still don't believe the chances for a La Nina in 2015 will be good. A lot was dependent on this Nino kicking off but so far it's remained weak. No doubt though, the indices have not been in favor of this Nino lately, we'll see.

[cycloneye]

Let's see how the PDO is in the next mid month update after the last reading of +1.72. Will it continue to go up? Ntxw,what do you think? By the way,you have not been here in the past few weeks but of course you are more than welcome to continue posting your always thoughtful discussions.

Sorry I've been not paying attention to ENSO lately because of other personal things and the activity in the Texas thread. It does appear the past Month or so there's been some waning with the Nino. ONI I think will still be enough given the 3 month average, ultimately this decides whether or not it is officially a Nino. It does look like there's a weak down welling oceanic Kelvin wave pushing in the WPAC. I don't still don't believe the chances for a La Nina in 2015 will be good. A lot was dependent on this Nino kicking off but so far it's remained weak. No doubt though, the indices have not been in favor of this Nino lately, we'll see.

Ok no problem. The ONI (+0.7C) will be the saving grace for the El Nino declaration.

[cycloneye]

The CPC January diagnostic update will be released on Thursday. Will they declare El Nino officially or wait for another ONI data over +0.5C to pull the trigger? ONI in the last two readings has been +0.5C and +0.7C.

[cycloneye]

CPC diagnostic monthly update of January didn't declare officially El Nino however they say by Febuary and March yes but then Neutral conditions will return.Look at the graphic below how La Nina begins to creep up at the end.It will be interesting to see what implications this outcome may have on the Severe Weather Season and the North Atlantic Hurricane Season.Ntxw,what is your take on this diagnostic January update RIP El Nino right?

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
8 January 2015


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch



Synopsis: There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions during the next two months, with ENSO-neutral favored thereafter.

During December 2014, positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). At the end of the month, the weekly Niño indices ranged from +0.8oC in the Niño-4 region, to +0.5oC in the Niño-3.4 region, to 0.0oC in the Niño-1+2 region (Fig. 2). The positive subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180o-100oW) also decreased during December (Fig. 3) in response to an upwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). Although the surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies were consistent with El Niño, the overall atmospheric circulation continued to show only limited coupling with the anomalously warm water. The equatorial low-level winds were largely near average during the month, while upper-level easterly anomalies continued in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained slightly negative, but the Equatorial SOI remained near zero. Also, rainfall remained below-average near the Date Line and was above-average over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Overall, the combined atmospheric and oceanic state remains ENSO-neutral.

Similar to last month, most models predict the SST anomalies to remain at weak El Niño levels (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 0.9oC) during December-February 2014-15, and lasting into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (Fig. 6). If El Niño were to emerge, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event that ends in early Northern Hemisphere spring. In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions during the next two months, with ENSO-neutral favored thereafter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... odisc.html

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... cpc_update

[cycloneye]

Dr Bob Henson now a blogger at WU with Dr Jeff Masters in his blog explains in an interesting way the mystery of why El Nino failed in 2014.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... #commentop

One researcher’s take on the mystery

ENSO was on the agenda at this week's annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society, where sessions on Tuesday morning and afternoon focused on the challenges of predicting El Niño and La Niña and what’s been learned over the last 20-plus years.

Eminent ENSO researcher Michael McPhaden (NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) presented a surprise talk on Tuesday called "Who Killed the 2014 El Niño?" The answer remains unclear, as McPhaden emphasized by presenting a rogue’s gallery of possible culprits in the form of a police lineup. These included:

--Negative feedbacks, or interactions that work against El Niño development rather than nourishing it
--The negative state of the Indian Ocean Dipole, which supports rainfall in the far western tropical Pacific, as opposed to its typical eastward shift of rainfall during El Niño.
--The negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which has been in place since the late 1990s. A negative PDO tends to be associated with reduced El Niño activity.
--A lack of westerly wind bursts strong enough to kick off El Niño.
--Persistently warm SSTs in the "warm pool" of the western tropical Pacific, where water temperatures normally drop below average during El Niño.

It will take time and research to figure out to what extent the demise of the anticipated 2014 El Niño was a group effort versus a solo job. However, it seems clear that the lack of the usual atmospheric involvement sealed the deal. As McPhaden put it, "The atmosphere is not engaged."

[cycloneye]

Really a great blog by CPC.


January ENSO update: The little engine that couldn't quite

Author: Emily Becker.


Thursday, January 8, 2015


A month ago, I wrote about the factors we look for when declaring the presence of “El Niño conditions.” Last month we were close: monthly average sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño3.4 region were above +0.5° Celsius, and they looked to stay that way for at least another few seasons.

However, signs that the atmosphere was responding to the warmer-than-average ocean waters were inconclusive, and we decided to hold off on declaring the presence of El Niño conditions for the moment. Was that the right decision? Why is this particular forecast so difficult? This month, I’m going to take you behind the scenes, into the forecast process.

The CPC/IRI ENSO* team currently consists of eleven forecasters. The forecasters use a variety of statistical and dynamical computer model forecasts, information from different climate monitoring systems, and personal knowledge. As the team develops the forecast, we also seek input from several other climate experts at NOAA.

Each forecaster provides a prediction for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), the three-month average sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño3.4 region. This is a 3-category probability forecast: one probability that the ONI will be below -0.5°C, one that it will be above +0.5°C, and one that it will be between the two.

These forecasts extend out to ten months into the future. For example, this month’s first forecast period is for the December-January-February average, and the last is for August-September-October 2015. These probabilities are what go into the consensus probabilistic forecast (fig. 1).


CPC/IRI consensus forecast




The CPC/IRI consensus probabilistic ENSO forecast.


Forecasters must also answer the question of whether or not they think El Niño conditions are present (El Niño Advisory), likely to develop (El Niño Watch), or neither. (The same applies for La Niña, but for now I’m going to focus on the current situation.) This forecast has been tricky because, while the sea-surface temperature anomalies increased during October and November, the atmosphere was slow to respond.

We make such a big deal about the atmospheric response for two main reasons. One, the changes in the tropical atmosphere connect to the higher latitudes through teleconnections, affecting the jet stream and leading to weather impacts over North America and elsewhere. The other reason is that the atmosphere feeds back onto the ocean, helping to develop and sustain the sea surface temperature anomalies.

As of the end of December, we were still seeing limited changes in the Walker Circulation. The Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index, or EQSOI, was still near zero (-0.1), and the SOI (Tahiti minus Darwin) increased slightly, but remained negative, at -0.6. Positive outgoing longwave radiation anomalies in the central Pacific decreased slightly too, but there was still suppressed rainfall near the Date Line.

What else is going on?

Through all these months during which the atmosphere has been saying “maybe” to El Niño, the ocean has been pretty consistently saying “yes.” However… during December, we saw a drop in the weekly Niño3.4 index, down from +1.0°C at the end of November to +0.5°C at the end of December. Plus, there is a reduction of sub-surface heat across the equatorial Pacific (fig. 2; see an animated progression here), meaning that there is a diminishing supply of heat that could recharge surface temperatures. The CFSv2 model, which has been hinting at this drop in SSTs for a couple of months now, also doesn’t think there will be a reversal in this current trend over the coming few months.


All of these considerations led the forecasters to conclude we are not in El Niño conditions this month. And, while there is a 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions emerging during the next two months, ENSO-neutral is favored beyond that.


So is this El Niño completely dead?

Not quite yet. With probabilities hovering around 50% that the ONI will stay above +0.5°C through January-February-March, we’re leaving the El Niño Watch up.

It’s not just U.S. forecasters that are watching this situation closely and trying to figure out what is going to happen. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has left their “El Niño Alert” raised, similar to our consensus. On the other hand, last month, the Japanese Meteorological Agency announced that El Niño was upon us, and has been since summer. They focus on the Niño-3 SST region (slightly eastward of Niño3.4).

The fact that different agencies are coming to different conclusions is further evidence of how borderline these conditions are. If “El Limbo” were real, and not a fake category someone at the IRI thought of, we might have already declared it.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... ldnt-quite

[Ntxw]

The fact that different agencies are coming to different conclusions is further evidence of how borderline these conditions are. If “El Limbo” were real, and not a fake category someone at the IRI thought of, we might have already declared it.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... ldnt-quite
[/b]

That was a great discussion, I like that term, El Limbo. Talk of the walker circulation and EQSOI was a good one, perhaps we should look further into this and it seems the CPC goes more in depth into ENSO than simply SST's. A lot to learn from this!

[cycloneye]

The fact that different agencies are coming to different conclusions is further evidence of how borderline these conditions are. If “El Limbo” were real, and not a fake category someone at the IRI thought of, we might have already declared it.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... ldnt-quite
[/b]

That was a great discussion, I like that term, El Limbo. Talk of the walker circulation and EQSOI was a good one, perhaps we should look further into this and it seems the CPC goes more in depth into ENSO than simply SST's. A lot to learn from this!

Definitly we learn new things every day and this ENSO thing is a fascinating one to follow as it has many variables that can affect the outcome.I am sure the El Limbo ENSO will have implications to the Severe Weather Season and the North Atlantic Hurricane Season.

[dexterlabio]

This El Limbo sounds like a warm Neutral ENSO for me.



Maybe another year going with Neutral.. La Nina years often come right after El Nino, but 2014 as many forecasters say is not El Nino. But what do we know. ENSO forecasting has been a very tricky business recently. In 2009 as soon as the signs of an impending El Nino showed up, it really did come. But early last year the same signs of a brewing Nino showed up (massive warm pool, positive PDO reading, SOI crashed to lowest since 2010..) but El Nino bust happened.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looks like El Nino has a mind of its own.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2892

[cycloneye]

This El Limbo sounds like a warm Neutral ENSO for me.



Maybe another year going with Neutral.. La Nina years often come right after El Nino, but 2014 as many forecasters say is not El Nino. But what do we know. ENSO forecasting has been a very tricky business recently. In 2009 as soon as the signs of an impending El Nino showed up, it really did come. But early last year the same signs of a brewing Nino showed up (massive warm pool, positive PDO reading, SOI crashed to lowest since 2010..) but El Nino bust happened.

The main culprits for the El Nino debacle have been lack of atmospheric El Nino-like conditions,ESPI being in negative and the equatorial SOI that has been flat or neutral.

[cycloneye]

Well,CPC said Weak El Nino would come for the next 2 months and then go to Neutral again thereafter but as I type this is getting slimmer and slimmer that is going to do so at all. Look here

[cycloneye]

ENSO is really in limbo right now as all the Nino areas are down and below +0.5C.Look at first post graphics.

[Kingarabian]

But the PDO is still positive and was positive all of 2014. This could help future Nino's.

[cycloneye]

When you see Nino 4 dipping below +0.5C it spells deep trouble for any warm ENSO episode to get going. The dips in Ninos 1+2--- 3--- 3.4 are big and now how much will warm again after the crash stops is the question.

[cycloneye]

Drip-drip-drip continues.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update continues with the down trend that Nino 3,4 has been thru in the past 3 weeks. Now down to +0.4C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Some humor to this El Nino thing.Didn't like the last action but in general is a general perception about the no show of El Nino.