Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5401 Postby **BigB0882** » Thu Jan 08, 2015 8:48 am

Woke up and it was 21 degrees according TWC app on my phone. Brrrr! I don't know if that was the low or if it got colder, the sun was just barely coming up at the time. I found some standing water in my backyard and it was frozen pretty thick. Reminds me of last year right around this time when we had a really hard freeze and the fountain was frozen! I had never seen anything like that down here. I think that bout had us staying below freezing all day, though. I will upload a picture tonight!

SeGaBob · #5402 Postby **SeGaBob** » Thu Jan 08, 2015 11:18 am

It bottomed out around 18 at 7:45 this morning. It's only 26 now... :cold:

#5403 Postby **MGC** » Thu Jan 08, 2015 1:37 pm

It was a chilly 19 here in Pass Christian this morning when I let the dog out. Still at 32 during the noon hour.....MGC

#5404 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Jan 08, 2015 3:32 pm

Well, we got a nice little surprise this afternoon as very light snow flurries has occured today here in Jacksonville from onshore flow off the Atlantic produced from stratocumulus deck that rolled in after 8 am this morning. They are still occuring at my locale at the moment. A very cool experience (pardon the pun) and it is very cold today, only 38 degrees currently. Had a low of 26 degrees earlier this morning.

CYCLONE MIKE · #5405 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Thu Jan 08, 2015 7:07 pm

That's pretty cool. You got snow in florida before a whole lot of other places much further north and more snow prone, congrats.

On a side note chances look like they might be slowly increasing for us tomorrow. But I'll believe it when I see it.

SeGaBob · #5406 Postby **SeGaBob** » Thu Jan 08, 2015 8:02 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Well, we got a nice little surprise this afternoon as very light snow flurries has occured today here in Jacksonville from onshore flow off the Atlantic produced from stratocumulus deck that rolled in after 8 am this morning. They are still occuring at my locale at the moment. A very cool experience (pardon the pun) and it is very cold today, only 38 degrees currently. Had a low of 26 degrees earlier this morning.

I'm glad that you got a bit of snow.

#5407 Postby **BigB0882** » Thu Jan 08, 2015 9:24 pm

I wish the chances were higher so they would cancel school. I'm a teacher but I act like a student when you say "snow day!" Even if it isn't snow. Haha

#5408 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Jan 08, 2015 9:51 pm

Yeah everyone it was quite a surprise indeed. This will be officially recorded as a trace of snowfall for today by the NWS Jax WFO as flurries were observed there as well today. I posted videos of today's flurries over on the Florida thread for those who want to see it.

SeGa Bob I see you had flurries with the passage of the arctic 850 mb boundary last night.

Countrygirl911 · #5409 Postby **Countrygirl911** » Thu Jan 08, 2015 11:31 pm

SW Mississippi is under a winter weather advisory. possiable sleet and freezing rain in the morning till 10 am :cold:

#5410 Postby **BigB0882** » Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:19 am

Of course we have very light precip this morning but the temps never got below freezing last night. Big bust on the temps, we were supposed to drop to the upper 20s and at 4 this morning I saw it was 35. Everyone was worried about precip but instead the temps were what got us. Didn't really expect that. I wonder if the clouds came in too early.

TideJoe · #5411 Postby **TideJoe** » Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:59 am

Countrygirl911 wrote:SW Mississippi is under a winter weather advisory. possiable sleet and freezing rain in the morning till 10 am

Light sleet, rain, and snow in the Hattiesburg and Laurel areas.

CYCLONE MIKE · #5412 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Fri Jan 09, 2015 10:22 am

BigB0882 wrote:Of course we have very light precip this morning but the temps never got below freezing last night. Big bust on the temps, we were supposed to drop to the upper 20s and at 4 this morning I saw it was 35. Everyone was worried about precip but instead the temps were what got us. Didn't really expect that. I wonder if the clouds came in too early.

Major bust. I sure hope you didn't get your hopes up too much. Oh well theres always next winter. Maybe all the long range experts and models will say it will be an above temp winter for all and we will end up with a few snow storms :wink:

#5413 Postby **BigB0882** » Fri Jan 09, 2015 10:23 am

Oh, my hopes were very minimal.

I havent looked but I heard the GFS is still calling for some wintry precip this afternoon for Baton Rouge. I would be shocked but they must see the precip helping to drop the temps? I don't know.

CYCLONE MIKE · #5414 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Fri Jan 09, 2015 10:29 am

Its the only one I saw. All the others are showing light rain or nothing. Sun actually broke through in Prairieville for a few minutes a little while ago.

CYCLONE MIKE · #5415 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Fri Jan 09, 2015 1:26 pm

What a waste of a cold winter day. Rain has moved in and temp has dropped to 35 in south BR. Not even a sleet pellet to be seen :grr:

#5416 Postby **BigB0882** » Fri Jan 09, 2015 1:58 pm

I guess that is why the GFS saw some winter precip, the temps did drop with the precipitation but not enough and I don't expect them to drop much further, if any. Miserable day.

#5417 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:04 am

SeGaBob wrote:northjaxpro, what do you think of this?

12Z GFS (120 hours) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_20.png

Parallel and regular GFS have shown this the past several runs if you watch their loops. Maybe some could shift onshore?

Well, I be darned SeGaBob, you remember this post back on last week? I went back a couple of pages, and as it turned out, this GFS run panned out to be about as perfectly forecasted as you can get. Indeed, as it turned out, that area of light snow flurries did indeed shift onshore and came inland just enough about 20 miles to encounter the arctic cold wedge to give many here in Jax our surprise event on Thursday.

At least on this particular run, the GFS got one right

#5418 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jan 10, 2015 12:01 pm

Speaking of the GFS and the EURO, the latest runs for each do show another cool down by next weekend, but it will not be to the magnitude of the arctic spell we just experienced the past couple of days. It will be cold, but nothing like the single digit temperatures and teens we saw across much of the Deep South on 1/8/15.

The arctic air this time will be bottled up more across the polar regions and the GFS is only depicting a 1030mb HP building down this time next week. That is a significant difference compared to the monster 1050+ mb Arctic HP dome which came down from out of Canada this past week.

SeGaBob · #5419 Postby **SeGaBob** » Sun Jan 11, 2015 8:47 pm

northjaxpro wrote::D
SeGaBob wrote:northjaxpro, what do you think of this?

12Z GFS (120 hours) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_20.png

Parallel and regular GFS have shown this the past several runs if you watch their loops. Maybe some could shift onshore?

Well, I be darned SeGaBob, you remember this post back on last week? I went back a couple of pages, and as it turned out, this GFS run panned out to be about as perfectly forecasted as you can get. Indeed, as it turned out, that area of light snow flurries did indeed shift onshore and came inland just enough about 20 miles to encounter the arctic cold wedge to give many here in Jax our surprise event on Thursday.

At least on this particular run, the GFS got one right

Yeah I do... some didn't think it would happen but I'm glad it did.

hurricanehunter69 · #5420 Postby **hurricanehunter69** » Tue Jan 13, 2015 10:08 am

What is the over under on how many runs it will take for this to change and go away.....? http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

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