Texas Winter 2014-2015

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Tireman4
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2841 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Jan 09, 2015 3:12 pm

srainhoutx wrote:That upper low is not weakening as it moves E and is traveling a bit quicker than the guidance had originally suggested and not shearing out. Lightning strikes reported with that Upper low over Northern Mexico at this time.



Rut Roh...
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2842 Postby hriverajr » Fri Jan 09, 2015 3:19 pm

Latest HRRR is showing a bit of snow just to our west at 2 am (Del Rio) Upper level low looks a bit stronger and moving faster than previously forecast. Might come right over the top of my head :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2843 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jan 09, 2015 3:21 pm

hriverajr wrote:Latest HRRR is showing a bit of snow just to our west at 2 am (Del Rio) Upper level low looks a bit stronger and moving faster than previously forecast. Might come right over the top of my head :)


I was thinking about for you hriverajr. Stranger things have happened with these cut off low that the models just can't seem to grasp coming across Mexico. :wink:

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Last edited by srainhoutx on Fri Jan 09, 2015 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2844 Postby ravyrn » Fri Jan 09, 2015 3:23 pm

Some light precipitation here in Jacksonville falling right now in the form of ice pellets. No slush to it, just straight up ice pellets falling out of the sky. Them things hurt when the bigger ones hit your ear!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2845 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jan 09, 2015 3:24 pm

Biked 20 miles in 37 degree weather. It felt fantastic. Give me this over 90 plus degrees 7 days a week and twice on Sunday!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2846 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Jan 09, 2015 3:25 pm

So strain what does that mean?
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2847 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Jan 09, 2015 3:39 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Biked 20 miles in 37 degree weather. It felt fantastic. Give me this over 90 plus degrees 7 days a week and twice on Sunday!


Great job. My biking miles are inside, but I have 100 miles so far this week with 20 more tomorrow. I will have 35 miles running this week too. Fun time. :)
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#2848 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 09, 2015 3:49 pm

Upper 30s with some light returns on the radar so the temp may dip a bit along with some sleet pellets. It will be interesting to see how things ptay out late today into tomorrow.
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Re:

#2849 Postby Tammie » Fri Jan 09, 2015 3:52 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:Upper 30s with some light returns on the radar so the temp may dip a bit along with some sleet pellets. It will be interesting to see how things ptay out late today into tomorrow.


Do you think the moisture west of DFW is going to hold together long enough to reach north Texas? If so, will it reach the ground? TIA!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2850 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:02 pm

For some reason Weatherbug has an extremely sensitive radar algorithm that shows returns that aren't visible on public NEXRAD products, so I highly doubt that this is reaching the ground.... but for what it's worth...

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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2851 Postby SouthernMet » Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:06 pm

San Angelo NWS issues Winter Weather Advisory for 6 counties in the Junction/Ozona area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2852 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:10 pm

By comparison, NEXRAD:

Image

There may be a few flurries falling in southern Tarrant and Dallas counties right now though. The stuff west of Tyler looks interesting. I'm not sure that surface temperatures actually support snowflakes vs raindrops, though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2853 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:13 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Biked 20 miles in 37 degree weather. It felt fantastic. Give me this over 90 plus degrees 7 days a week and twice on Sunday!


You won't catch me on a bike unless the temperatures is at least 55F and sunny with light wind. And then I'll have every patch of skin covered and a neoprene mask covering below my sunglasses. No problem biking 50 miles with the temperature in the 90s. Love it!

Temps in the southern Hill Country are running in the upper 30s with dewpoints in the upper 20s. Once the precip starts, both will converge. But I'd like to see dewpoints closer to 20 for a big freezing rain event. Upper 20s to start with means they meet above 32F, most likely.
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#2854 Postby hriverajr » Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:14 pm

Interesting....

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
306 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2015

TXZ229>234-239>247-100600-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
306 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...

ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO SOUTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF RAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY OVER SOUTH TEXAS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR FREEZING EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THAT PART OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE COLUMBIA BRIDGE
(NORTH OF LAREDO)...TO GEORGE WEST...TO NORTH OF VICTORIA. WITHIN
THIS REGION...SOME OF THE RAIN COULD FREEZE AS IT MAKES CONTACT ON
COLD SURFACES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 300 AM TO 900 AM CST SATURDAY MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FOREGOING LINE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY ABOVE FREEZING TO PRECLUDE FREEZING RAIN.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2855 Postby SouthernMet » Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:15 pm

:uarrow: @Somethingfunny put it in a composite loop on the nws site it will show up..
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2856 Postby SouthernMet » Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:21 pm

Kerrville & Fredricksburg both sitting at 31 degrees already.
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Re: Re:

#2857 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:22 pm

Tammie wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:Upper 30s with some light returns on the radar so the temp may dip a bit along with some sleet pellets. It will be interesting to see how things ptay out late today into tomorrow.


Do you think the moisture west of DFW is going to hold together long enough to reach north Texas? If so, will it reach the ground? TIA!

Some very light sleet or flurries could reach the ground, but the low levels are still pretty dry.
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#2858 Postby hriverajr » Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:23 pm

The upper low is forecasted to fill, If it does not there could be some surprises. There are lower dewpoints just to the north of the hill country. In fact junction has a dew point of 19. Some of those will continue to advect in.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2859 Postby SouthernMet » Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:25 pm

SREF & RGEM both trended warmer for tonight, looking more like 29-31 for Austin, instead of 26-28.. Watch those wet bulb temps though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#2860 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:31 pm

EWX is going to issue a Winter Weather Advisory effective 6 p.m. tonight for most of the counties in its CWA.

Light accumulations of ice expected. Less than 0.10".
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