Texas Winter 2014-2015

[dhweather]

DRINK THE KOOL-AID MY CHILDREN !!!!

[wxman57]

The upper low is forecasted to fill, If it does not there could be some surprises. There are lower dewpoints just to the north of the hill country. In fact junction has a dew point of 19. Some of those will continue to advect in.

Yes, it's a "race" cooler air with lower dewpoints is trying to move south toward SAT/AUS. Who will win? Tough call as far as any freezing rain there.

[SouthernMet]

EWX is going to issue a Winter Weather Advisory effective 6 p.m. tonight for most of the counties in its CWA.

Light accumulations of ice expected. Less than 0.10".

Confidence is pretty high that .10"+ of ice can be expected from Kerrville-Georegtown line from roughly 3am - 10am with potentially higher amounts. (CMC & some sref ensembles show over .4"+)

[Longhornmaniac8]

The upper low is forecasted to fill, If it does not there could be some surprises. There are lower dewpoints just to the north of the hill country. In fact junction has a dew point of 19. Some of those will continue to advect in.

Yes, it's a "race" cooler air with lower dewpoints is trying to move south toward SAT/AUS. Who will win? Tough call as far as any freezing rain there.

Could you give any sort of indication where this cooler air is? Looking at temps to our north, I don't see much difference from where we are. Most areas in Central and North Texas right now appear to be in the 34-38 range. The dew points in my neck of the woods are in 22-24 range.

How is the low supposed to affect these aspects (temp, dew point)?

[Shoshana]

EWX is going to issue a Winter Weather Advisory effective 6 p.m. tonight for most of the counties in its CWA.

Light accumulations of ice expected. Less than 0.10".

KEYE already has this up

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY For MASON County from midnight to noon. For BASTROP, BLANCO, BURNET, CALDWELL, GILLESPIE, HAYS, LEE, TRAVIS & WILLIAMSON Counties from 6 PM to noon. Light sleet/rain showers possible through Central Texas today. Tonight and tomorrow freezing rain is possible. Watch for icy patches, especially on bridges and overpasses.

Read More at: http://www.keyetv.com/

[Tammie]

The upper low is forecasted to fill, If it does not there could be some surprises. There are lower dewpoints just to the north of the hill country. In fact junction has a dew point of 19. Some of those will continue to advect in.

Yes, it's a "race" cooler air with lower dewpoints is trying to move south toward SAT/AUS. Who will win? Tough call as far as any freezing rain there.

Could you give any sort of indication where this cooler air is? Looking at temps to our north, I don't see much difference from where we are. Most areas in Central and North Texas right now appear to be in the 34-38 range. The dew points in my neck of the woods are in 22-24 range.

How is the low supposed to affect these aspects (temp, dew point)?

Our temp is 37, but our DP is 10 in Denton.

[Portastorm]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2015

...ANOTHER POLAR AIRMASS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PROMOTE WINTER
TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

.A COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY SATURDAY. WITH A COLD AIRMASS CONTINUING OVER
THE SURFACE AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK...WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED IN THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FORM. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS ELEVATED SURFACES...
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>208-101215-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.150110T0000Z-150110T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART
405 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO
SAN ANTONIO TO BASTROP LINE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH NOON CST SATURDAY.

* TIMING...FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY ACCUMULATE ON MANY
ELEVATED SURFACES AND ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS/EDWARDS
PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 INCLUDING
THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREAS AND MAKE TRAVEL
DANGEROUS. EVEN SOME NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES
A SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS...TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE FROM A
TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE BANDS
OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET PRODUCING SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HILL COUNTRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

[cycloneye]

Off Topic= As I posted on page 117 the donation announcement I had to post this good news update from the administration of S2K. We will keep rolling!! but keep the donations going.

Read announcement update here

[weatherdude1108]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2015

...ANOTHER POLAR AIRMASS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PROMOTE WINTER
TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

.A COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY SATURDAY. WITH A COLD AIRMASS CONTINUING OVER
THE SURFACE AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK...WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED IN THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FORM. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS ELEVATED SURFACES...
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>208-101215-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.150110T0000Z-150110T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART
405 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO
SAN ANTONIO TO BASTROP LINE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH NOON CST SATURDAY.

* TIMING...FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY ACCUMULATE ON MANY
ELEVATED SURFACES AND ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS/EDWARDS
PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 INCLUDING
THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREAS AND MAKE TRAVEL
DANGEROUS. EVEN SOME NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES
A SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS...TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE FROM A
TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE BANDS
OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET PRODUCING SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HILL COUNTRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Like I said earlier, down to the last minute.

[Rgv20]

Tomorrow's morning low is forecast to be at 35 and a high of 39 with Rain....Its going to feel miserable but I love it! lol Its currently 42 with light drizzle

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1201 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2015

...BRISK WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LOW WIND
CHILLS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF THE BRISK NORTH WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LOW
WIND CHILL VALUES.

TXZ248>257-100215-
/O.CON.KBRO.WC.Y.0002.150110T0600Z-150110T2100Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
1201 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
3 PM CST SATURDAY...

* WIND CHILL VALUES...WILL FALL BETWEEN 23 AND 30 DEGREES.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TO 3 PM SATURDAY.

* IMPACT...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES MAY LEAD TO
HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE DURING EXTENDED PERIODS ON EXPOSED
SKIN. DRESS IN LAYERS BEFORE VENTURING OUTSIDE. CHILDREN AND
ADULTS STANDING OUTSIDE FOR LONG DURATION...SUCH AS AT BUS
STOPS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS TO STAY WARM. PETS AND
LIVESTOCK MAY BECOME STRESSED DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
MAKE SURE ADEQUATE SHELTER IS AVAILABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES WILL
DROP TO 30 OR LOWER FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND 25 DEGREES OR LOWER FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS FOR THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS...WITH WINDS OF 10 MPH OR
GREATER.

&&

$$

[iorange55]

Now that Portastorm has changed his avatar, I wonder if it's time to change mine. I've had the same Christmas tree for 3+ years now. Maybe I should change it to a palm tree?

You know, since the rest of January is going to be so warm and miserable.

[aggiecutter]

[TexasSam]

Now that Portastorm has changed his avatar, I wonder if it's time to change mine. I've had the same Christmas tree for 3+ years now. Maybe I should change it to a palm tree?

You know, since the rest of January is going to be so warm and miserable.

http://youtu.be/UYk56jemsbU Don't go into the light!

I can't seem to post the youtube video here...

[hriverajr]

Perhaps winter will break us snow lovers heart again this year...

[JGrin87]

Where is the cold front currently? Is that it about to cross into Texas?

[hriverajr]

False

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

My temperature is already down to 34 in The Colony; gonna be another cold night.

[Tcu101]

Looking ahead to next week, it appears North Texas may have another shot at some winter weather per Cavanaugh Forecast discussion.

[SouthernMet]

KVUE reporting ice on trees & elevated surfaces south of Fredericksburg already.

[Brent]

What a great discussion from FWD this evening: All the sudden they mention accumulating thunder sleet tomorrow night and possible accumulating snow Tuesday night

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
528 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2015

.AVIATION...
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN FOR AREA TAF SITES.

A COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FOLLOWING THIS MORNING/S COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS
PROVIDING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLD DOME...LEADING TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET...WITH A FEW
PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS ARE
BELOW 32. BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
ACTIVITY SEEN ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FORGO ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE LIGHT ECHOES APPROACHING THE METROPLEX FROM THE
WEST...BUT AT THIS TIME WE BELIEVE THEY SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW RAIN DROPS OR AN OCCASIONAL PELLET OF SLEET.

OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP AFFECTING THE WACO AREA. THE KACT TAF WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY INCLUDE -RA BEGINNING AT 18Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
ALSO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE METROPLEX BEGINNING
AROUND SUNSET SATURDAY OR 11/00Z. THE THINKING AT THIS TIME IS
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN LIQUID FORM...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX
SATURDAY NIGHT.

30

&&


.SHORT TERM...

12Z ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN 850 FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND USHER IN
SOME DRIER AIR. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY AT LOW LEVELS...SOME ELEVATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...YIELDING CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE 20S AND LOW
30S...BUT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK AT MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH LOWER.

A SHORTWAVE THAT WAS SPINNING OVER WESTERN MEXICO AS OF 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING THE NEXT SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EASE INTO THE LONE STAR
STATE TOMORROW. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL VEER AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY...HELPING TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMING IN AS WELL...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND SHOULD FALL IN LIQUID FORM.
HOWEVER...SOME FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF TEMPERATURE
PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE COOL ENOUGH. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD THIS COME TO
FRUITION...SOME SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
REGARDLESS...LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

THERE ARE TWO PERIODS OF CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE FIRST IS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SECOND IS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

...FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

OUR PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO WACO TO CAMERON. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR THESE LOCATIONS. JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE...THE 850 MB FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH OVER THESE LOCATIONS USHERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING...SO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES LOOK
PERSISTENT...BUT WEAK TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT...DO NOT THINK
OUR CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE VERY HIGH WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ACCUMULATING
ICE/FREEZING RAIN.

AS A RESULT...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR A
LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AND GRAPHICS AT THIS TIME. WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN TOMORROW MORNING IF IT LOOKED LIKE
SKIES WERE GOING TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...OR IF IT LOOKED LIKE LIFT
WAS MUCH STRONGER TOMORROW MORNING. WITHOUT SUB-FREEZING AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE...AND WITH WEAK LIFT EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING...CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN/ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
AREA STREETS IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS
FAIRLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA AT
THIS TIME...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP SATURATION EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR FREEZING RAIN/ICE
POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS SIMPLY NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ICE ACCUMULATION.

THE PHRASE "TOO WARM" MAY BE A BIT MISLEADING AS WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT ALL. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO HOVER IN THE 31 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
SIMPLY TOO WARM TO RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION
WHILE IT IS RAINING. IF THE RAIN WAS EXPECTED TO BE SUPER-COOLED
...OR IF GROUND TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING...ICE
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM PLUS 5 TO 9 DEG C. AS A
RESULT...RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE VERY LIKELY TO REACH THE GROUND
AT A TEMPERATURE THAT IS ABOVE FREEZING. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LOOKING TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...RAINFALL THAT IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER TIPS OUR CONFIDENCE SCALE IN FAVOR OF A LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
COLD RAIN EVENT RATHER THAN A FREEZING RAIN/ICE EVENT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME POSITIVE CAPE ALOFT SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DYNAMIC
COOLING AND SOME UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION PROVIDING SOME
SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER THE REGION AT THAT TIME. ANY
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SLEET. NO SLEET
ACCUMULATION IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER LOCALIZED
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DIRECTLY UNDER ANY STORM. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE. AS A
RESULT...PLACED ISOLATED THUNDER AND A RAIN OR SLEET PRECIPITATION
FORECAST IN FOR MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVELY WARM RAIN FROM ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS FAIRLY
HIGH...HOWEVER WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS THAT HOLD ON TO 31-32
DEGREE TEMPERATURES WHILE IT IS RAINING. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
HOLD ON TO THESE JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THINK THAT SOME
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES ARE MOST LIKELY
WITHIN THIS AREA. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW...AS IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD ONLY TAKE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
OCCUR...SO THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING VERY CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AND CONFIDENCE IN ALL RAIN ON SUNDAY IS FAIRLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST ON SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE REGION.

AJS/CAVANAUGH

&&

.LONG TERM...

WITH A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO UNWINDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...WILL JUST HIT THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA SENDING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING OVER THE CWA. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
CONUS...SO THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE IT BEFORE MOVING EAST OVER THE
REGION. THE FARTHER SOUTH IT GOES...THE STRONGER THE LIFT WILL BE
OVER NORTH TEXAS AND THE MORE PRECIPITATION WE CAN EXPECT. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW WITH MODELS KEEPING THE
TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER AT THIS TIME.

ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WITH THIS SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIKELY FALL AS RAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THIS CHANGE OVER LINE WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS CHANGE OVER LINE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. HOWEVER
FARTHER NORTH...DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR...SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO AT LEAST SUPPORT
A RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY OVER SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE ON ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY
STORM SYSTEM MID-WEEK.