Florida Weather

[NDG]

well-said northjaxpro. We have been very fortunate here in Florida the last 10 years for sure. Regarding the hurricanes, I wonder if the active period Florida saw in the 20-40s where SE Florida saw a major hurricane on average every two years or so will return. Note this is not a typo as SE Florida was hit by a MAJOR hurricane on average every two years during those 30 years if you count up the number of major hurricanes over that timeframe taking 30 and dividing it by that number as some years saw multiple hits from majors. Just think of the impact to Florida should we get into this type of pattern again?

Here is an article which discusses:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense ... o_far.html

Regarding the cold for Florida, it does seem to have been a while as Jan 2010 was the last time we saw a damaging freeze deep into the peninsula of Florida. One thing I am seeing with the long-range models is a potential major long-wave pattern shift across North America come last week of this month that looks to usher in another widespread arctic outbreak event fort the lower 48 east of the rockies. Question is how will the NAO look and could this outbreak be the one to finally cause freezes for many across peninsula Florida?

It was December 2010 the last time that FL saw the last record breaking damaging freezes. A lot of people get confused because it was one if not the only year in which it happened twice in the same calendar year.
It was the coldest December on record for the whole State, Miami only had one day during the entire month in which it had only one 80+ deg F day. Tallahassee had low temps 32 degrees or lower 25 days during the month! Many areas in the interior I-4 corridor got down into the low to mid 20s for lows.

[asd123]

The teleconections appear to be morphing towards favorable for bitter cold. GFS Parallel shows tanking AO, NAO, weakly positive PNA (Teleconnections on Weatherbell 18z run) ECMWF slightly, but still negative AO and NAO. ECMWF PNA weak positive.

Additionally, the current SSW is not a true one. (Warming has happened, but zonal winds have not weakened or reversed). Polar vortex won't be disrupted, but effects of warming in the stratosphere will still propagate to cold in the troposphere. The propagation has already begun: https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/5 ... 3040055297.

Temperatures in central Florida have been largely above average; hopefully our winter will soon be saved!!!

[NDG]

The teleconections appear to be morphing towards favorable for bitter cold. GFS Parallel shows tanking AO, NAO, weakly positive PNA (Teleconnections on Weatherbell 18z run) ECMWF slightly, but still negative AO and NAO. ECMWF PNA weak positive.

Additionally, the current SSW is not a true one. (Warming has happened, but zonal winds have not weakened or reversed). Polar vortex won't be disrupted, but effects of warming in the stratosphere will still propagate to cold in the troposphere. The propagation has already begun: https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/5 ... 3040055297.

Temperatures in central Florida have been largely above average; hopefully our winter will soon be saved!!!

Question, why would you go against the GFS ensembles which have done a fairly good job with the NAO's forecast so far this winter?
Word of advice, always go with the trend.

[asd123]

The teleconections appear to be morphing towards favorable for bitter cold. GFS Parallel shows tanking AO, NAO, weakly positive PNA (Teleconnections on Weatherbell 18z run) ECMWF slightly, but still negative AO and NAO. ECMWF PNA weak positive.

Additionally, the current SSW is not a true one. (Warming has happened, but zonal winds have not weakened or reversed). Polar vortex won't be disrupted, but effects of warming in the stratosphere will still propagate to cold in the troposphere. The propagation has already begun: https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/5 ... 3040055297.

Temperatures in central Florida have been largely above average; hopefully our winter will soon be saved!!!

Question, why would you go against the GFS ensembles which have done a fairly good job with the NAO's forecast so far this winter?
Word of advice, always go with the trend.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif

I wasn't trying to go against the GEFS, I am just sick and tired of the cfla above average temps, so I am just bringing up a different side of the story which shows coldest-favorable teleconnections.

The GEFS, EPS, and GEPS don't seem to be so intense with the cold favorable teleconnections for the next 10 to 14 days. On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF do seem to be forecasting more cold favorable teleconnections.

[northjaxpro]

The past couple of days have been cool, damp and dreary to say the least as a extensive canaopy of low, stratocumulus deck of clouds continue to blanket our region and that will continue today. Max temp yesterday was only 53 degrees at my locale and the cool north to northeast surface flow will continue today as well with another day only expected to reach the low-mid 50s. . A digging shortwave across the Southeast US will help generate a Low Pressure system to form across the the South Central GOM later today and that will spread rain across the peninsula late this afternoon and tonight. QPF amounts don't lkook very heavy, but should see amounts generally fron about an .50 to about an inch across North Florida. May see a bit more in entral Florida as the Low will track generally along and to the south of the I-4 corridor.

The Low Pressure system should move off the East Central FL coast by early Friday and drying should commence as ridging occurs on the backside of the Low. The air will be cool across North Florida for the upcoming weekend, but nothing like last week here in Jax. Lows near 40 on Friday morning and max temps in the upper 50s and temps moderating into the 60s for max temps this weekend.

No arctic intrusions seen long range at least for the next ten days. So, for all of you warm weather lovers, continue to count yopur blessings for the reprieve from Old Man Winter for. We keep on living on borrowed time in the luck department from Mother Nature for the majority of us in the peninsula that is for sure.

Have a great day everyone!

[ronjon]

well-said northjaxpro. We have been very fortunate here in Florida the last 10 years for sure. Regarding the hurricanes, I wonder if the active period Florida saw in the 20-40s where SE Florida saw a major hurricane on average every two years or so will return. Note this is not a typo as SE Florida was hit by a MAJOR hurricane on average every two years during those 30 years if you count up the number of major hurricanes over that timeframe taking 30 and dividing it by that number as some years saw multiple hits from majors. Just think of the impact to Florida should we get into this type of pattern again?

Here is an article which discusses:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense ... o_far.html

Regarding the cold for Florida, it does seem to have been a while as Jan 2010 was the last time we saw a damaging freeze deep into the peninsula of Florida. One thing I am seeing with the long-range models is a potential major long-wave pattern shift across North America come last week of this month that looks to usher in another widespread arctic outbreak event fort the lower 48 east of the rockies. Question is how will the NAO look and could this outbreak be the one to finally cause freezes for many across peninsula Florida?

It was December 2010 the last time that FL saw the last record breaking damaging freezes. A lot of people get confused because it was one if not the only year in which it happened twice in the same calendar year.
It was the coldest December on record for the whole State, Miami only had one day during the entire month in which it had only one 80+ deg F day. Tallahassee had low temps 32 degrees or lower 25 days during the month! Many areas in the interior I-4 corridor got down into the low to mid 20s for lows.

What was so unprecedented about the December 2010 event was its duration. In central Florida, we had 11 days of freezing or near freezing low temps and many of those days only warmed into the 40s. In our strawberry growing area of Dover/Plant City, we dropped water levels in the Floridan aquifer more than 60 feet due to intensive pumping by farmers to save their crops. Unfortunately, this led to numerous sinkholes opening up and over 100 homeowners drinking water wells going dry. I've never seen this duration of cold weather in central Florida - and I've lived here over 35 years.

BTW, the 00z ECM now shows a huge long wave trough days 8-10 shaping up with what looks like a direct upper air connection to the north pole to the eastern US! It's not sharp at its base, so Florida doesn't look to bad at this point but something to watch in the coming days.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah ronjon I saw the EURO long range earlier and I am not quite biting on it just yet. I will await to see how the teleconnections will fare, especially the NAO, within the next 10 days.

[SouthFloridian92]

I wish we could have a repeat of January 2010 every year.

[NDG]

I wish we could have a repeat of January 2010 every year.

Florida's vegetation & agriculture would be totally different if every year was to be like 2010.

[psyclone]

I wish we could have a repeat of January 2010 every year.

you can. choose either I-75 or I-95 and head north.

[Bocadude85]

I wish we could have a repeat of January 2010 every year.

I live in Florida for the warm weather, not for cold weather.

[TheStormExpert]

Once again the models are backing off some on the strength of the cool down behind this Sundays front.

What will it take for us here in south Florida and the peninsula to receive decent cold fronts instead of these short lived cool fronts that only bring us back near average for a day or two?

These fronts have been doing just that since Christmas and this pattern is really starting to get somewhat old.

The NAO, AO, and PNA seem to be just about as similarly setup as they were when we saw those decent cold front back in November, and mid-December.

[Patrick99]

It is amazing, ever since that December 2010, winter in South Florida especially has been nonexistent save for a random cool-ish night here and there. What I have been amazed by is how summery some of the early mornings have felt the past few years. I mean, sticky, temps in low to mid 70s.....that's more like May than December and January.

We are already halfway through January....in South Florida, the clock is ticking for any significant cold this winter. Per NWS Miami looks like lows in the 60s for at least the next week, week and a half.

[TheStormExpert]

I wish we could have a repeat of January 2010 every year.

I live in Florida for the warm weather, not for cold weather.

Yes I live in Florida for the warm weather as well, but to have persistent warm and humid weather for the majority of the winter, this gets sickening real fast.

I also live in Florida for the cool weather (not cold) that we normally recieve on a daily basis every winter which would be high's in the low/mid 70's, and low's in the 50's (maybe upper 40's here and there). It's nice to have our own taste of winter too here Florida style!

The coldest temperature I recorded here at my house in Palm Beach Gardens, FL was 46.2°F on December 11th, 2014. Now I know that is actually cold for South Florida standards but on average we usually record at least one morning with temperatures in the upper 30's/low 40's, and day with high's in the upper 50's/low 60's. IMO our chances of seeing this are dropping rapidly at this point.

[TheStormExpert]

It is amazing, ever since that December 2010, winter in South Florida especially has been nonexistent save for a random cool-ish night here and there. What I have been amazed by is how summery some of the early mornings have felt the past few years. I mean, sticky, temps in low to mid 70s.....that's more like May than December and January.

We are already halfway through January....in South Florida, the clock is ticking for any significant cold this winter. Per NWS Miami looks like lows in the 60s for at least the next week, week and a half.

Exactly! Above average winters have been dominant here in South Florida for what is going on 5 years now, amazing!

Maybe just maybe if we ask mother nature nicely she will treat us with a repeat of what happened the second half of February, and March 2013 where we saw the bulk of the winter that season.

[psyclone]

FWIW the 8-14 day outlook is now calling for below normal temps over the eastern 2/3 of the country (south fl pegged @ normal) so cooler times could be on the way. here in central florida we are @ or below normal now with highs mostly in the 60's to around 70 with the normal high near 70.

[FireRat]

Weather has been sweet in parts of South FL lately, been in the 60s for the most part due to low clouds for the past 3 days in my area, with sunshine for only a few hours. This morning it was 58, yesterday morning 59. Didn't hit 70 until after 1 pm. Today we haven't risen above 68 as of yet. It was great weather for the outdoors

[TheStormExpert]

Weather has been sweet in parts of South FL lately, been in the 60s for the most part due to low clouds for the past 3 days in my area, with sunshine for only a few hours. This morning it was 58, yesterday morning 59. Didn't hit 70 until after 1 pm. Today we haven't risen above 68 as of yet. It was great weather for the outdoors

This past week actually has been somewhat pleasant despite the clouds and occasional rain showers. It was just the weeks of Christmas and New Year's that were warm, humid, and muggy.

[Patrick99]

Weather has been sweet in parts of South FL lately, been in the 60s for the most part due to low clouds for the past 3 days in my area, with sunshine for only a few hours. This morning it was 58, yesterday morning 59. Didn't hit 70 until after 1 pm. Today we haven't risen above 68 as of yet. It was great weather for the outdoors

Wow. Not east of US1...it's been dead warm within a couple miles of the coast. Tonight has been the coolest ice seen in a while, with 63 as of right now.

[northjaxpro]

36.2 degrees was the low this morning here with some patchy frost scattered around the yard.

The weather looks about average for temps for this weekend with max temps expected in the mid-upper 60s both today and tomorrow. The sun looks bright and it is especially good to see after overcast, cool and rainy conditions most of this past week.

The week ahead looks mild and the interesting weather will be the Thursday and Friday period of this upcoming week. Southern stream energy from the Four Corners region will ride the STJ east and possibly spawn a Low Pressure area to develop into the GOM during that period per EURO. That will spread rain back across the peninsula.

The question is will the trough developing across the Eastern CONUS deepen enough to phase with the STJ to possibly deepen the Low Pressure system coming out of the GOM by the end of the week. That is what to monitor in the coming days.

Depending on the evolution of the trough, will may see another decent cool down here across North Florida by next weekend, and a chance of seeing a little cooler conditions farther south. Nothing extreme I do not believe however, unless we see a sudden teleconnection change which could deliver arctic air down into the Eastern US courtesy of a dip to the NAO. But, I do not see that happening at the moment, but still monitor closely. It is still only mid-January and there is ample time still left for Mother Nature to discharge another arctic intrusion somewhere south into the CONUS.