Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im not really interested on it being 'official' for a nino year or not really. Just need to see what the temps are for what they are and try and understand it. Its i guess a weak nino year, not a true El nino.

[cycloneye]

There was a guy on KRLD (Dallas AM 1080) this morning talking about the El Nino, or lack thereof, and the decreasing chances of it happening. I paraphrase "It was 70%, then 60% now it's a 50% chance of developing"


I should look him up and tell him my official term for this is Faux Nino.

This morning? S2K had that information since January 8 so that guy has to get up to the minute info like we do here. He can come here and see the ENSO thread.

[wxman57]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html


CPC says "El Nino WATCH"

Synopsis: There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions during the next two months, with ENSO-neutral favored thereafter.

So I think we can go ahead and nail that "El Nino" coffin shut, not happening.

I agree that the next 2 months don't look particularly warm, but the point of my post above was that all that was needed for an "official" El Nino was that three consecutive 3-month periods be at +.5C or higher. We've already had two 3-month periods in the El Nino range. All that we need is for Nov-Jan to be +.5C or higher. Since the vast majority of reports were above +.5C, it looks like almost a certainty that we've already HAD an El Nino.

[Portastorm]

Did someone mention "warmth?" I'll take some. I hate this cloudy, gray, cold weather. It's awful. Give me sunny and 95 please.

[Ntxw]

We can sit here and argue about El Nino all day but the fact of the matter is in 2014 a majority of the state has seen vast improvements in terms of shrinking the drought. And the year to year transition from the 2011's super drought has been improving as well. There is still a small holdout in Northern Texas but in the grand scheme it continues to look better. No La Nina in 2015 will just means the drought won't likely expand. We are still feeling the lag effects in terms of hydrologic drought but again avoid the Nina and keep the PDO positive and no catastrophic stage 5's

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

Did someone mention "warmth?" I'll take some. I hate this cloudy, gray, cold weather. It's awful. Give me sunny and 95 please.

Grey Goose anyone?

[weatherdude1108]

We can sit here and argue about El Nino all day but the fact of the matter is in 2014 a majority of the state has seen vast improvements in terms of shrinking the drought. And the year to year transition from the 2011's super drought has been improving as well. There is still a small holdout in Northern Texas but in the grand scheme it continues to look better. No La Nina in 2015 will just means the drought won't likely expand. We are still feeling the lag effects in terms of hydrologic drought but again avoid the Nina and keep the PDO positive and no catastrophic stage 5's

I like your posts Ntxw. They make me feel better.

[WeatherNewbie]

We can sit here and argue about El Nino all day but the fact of the matter is in 2014 a majority of the state has seen vast improvements in terms of shrinking the drought. And the year to year transition from the 2011's super drought has been improving as well. There is still a small holdout in Northern Texas but in the grand scheme it continues to look better. No La Nina in 2015 will just means the drought won't likely expand. We are still feeling the lag effects in terms of hydrologic drought but again avoid the Nina and keep the PDO positive and no catastrophic stage 5's

Agreed. People like to focus on their own little bubble, but overall, it has been pretty good for the state the last twelve months.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

Did someone mention "warmth?" I'll take some. I hate this cloudy, gray, cold weather. It's awful. Give me sunny and 95 please.

Oh man.. now Porta is bi-polar. God, I cannot take this anymore...ughhhh

[Texas Snowman]

I think Porta must have had something slipped into his Grey Goose while he was pouring over weather maps one night.

Or maybe he lost a bet.

Either way, I think the Heat Miser is behind this sinister plot.

[WeatherNewbie]

Or maybe he lost a bet.

Either way, I think the Heat Miser is behind this sinister plot.

He did indeed a few pages back.

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow:

Did someone mention "warmth?" I'll take some. I hate this cloudy, gray, cold weather. It's awful. Give me sunny and 95 please.

SNAP OUT OF IT PORTA!!! SNAP OUT OF IT!!! IT IS ALL A DREAM!!! Either that or I want some of whateerr is in that Grey Goose!!

[vbhoutex]

Meanwhile, back in Houston research has begun to determine who has stolen the sun!! Also it appears that all thermometers that can register above 50f have disappeared. No drought here anymore thankfully, but I must admit that this 30s and 40s and rain is GETTING OLD!!

[Brent]

Yeah I wasn't aware Texas was moved to Seattle...

[Ntxw]

Ensembles are in good agreement of how the overall 500mb pattern will play out the rest of this month. +EPO brings in Pacific air the next 5 days and this weekend will provide admirable biking weather though still may be a little chilly for wxman57 standards. Then quickly strong to severe -EPO will unleash what may be the climax of this winter's arctic attack(s) the following 2-3 weeks. Ridging will take hold from the NE Pacific through Alaska into Siberia. Tropical convection pushing through the wpac show signs of a favorable tropical forcing to another arctic outbreak. Snow and storms possibility is too far out to determine.

We're likely to get the big negative departures for January as a whole but we need a good snowstorm to lock it in the books.

[orangeblood]

Ensembles are in good agreement of how the overall 500mb pattern will play out the rest of this month. +EPO brings in Pacific air the next 5 days and this weekend will provide admirable biking weather though still may be a little chilly for wxman57 standards. Then quickly strong to severe -EPO will unleash what may be the climax of this winter's arctic attack(s) the following 2-3 weeks. Ridging will take hold from the NE Pacific through Alaska into Siberia. Tropical convection pushing through the wpac show signs of a favorable tropical forcing to another arctic outbreak. Snow and storms possibility is too far out to determine.

We're likely to get the big negative departures for January as a whole but we need a good snowstorm to lock it in the books.

Yeah, the look from the ensembles this far out means business...if the block over Greenland forms (it hasn't all winter up to this point), then this pattern could lock in for quite awhile (Euro ENS has it, GFS ENS does not)

[Ntxw]

Ensembles are in good agreement of how the overall 500mb pattern will play out the rest of this month. +EPO brings in Pacific air the next 5 days and this weekend will provide admirable biking weather though still may be a little chilly for wxman57 standards. Then quickly strong to severe -EPO will unleash what may be the climax of this winter's arctic attack(s) the following 2-3 weeks. Ridging will take hold from the NE Pacific through Alaska into Siberia. Tropical convection pushing through the wpac show signs of a favorable tropical forcing to another arctic outbreak. Snow and storms possibility is too far out to determine.

We're likely to get the big negative departures for January as a whole but we need a good snowstorm to lock it in the books.

Yeah, the look from the ensembles this far out means business...if the block over Greenland forms (it hasn't all winter up to this point), then this pattern could lock in for quite awhile (Euro ENS has it, GFS ENS does not)

It would be nice to get the Greenland block to cooperate. Or at least have one retrograde towards Hudson Bay. The ENS means business when they are consistent showing something anomalous, it worked out in Nov and this month. As we get closer those anomalies will get deeper as right now its a smoothed mean.

[orangeblood]

The most important trend on last nights model runs.....The AO is beginning to tank and has trended lower every day this week!!!

[Ntxw]

To put into perspective, DFW is 9.5F degrees below normal. The next five days will bump that warmer a bit but with the looming departures it is quite likely this is the coldest January we have seen since 1985 exactly 30 years ago which averaged out at 37.8F. We're currently 36F average wise. It's been no joke the cold. As I've said before anything below 40F average is a very very cold month for any winter month at DFW.

The most important trend on last nights model runs.....The AO is beginning to tank and has trended lower every day this week!!!

Yes! The other indices are not fighting it like this last outbreak. Could be interesting.

[gatorcane]

ECMWF (ENS + OP) show a cold weather pattern for the lower 48 and Texas starting in about 8-9 days as we see the blocking pattern with ridging across Alaska: