Texas Winter 2014-2015

[wxman57]

Are y'all using Bergstrom Airport as the official station? Mabry is usually a little colder just sayin

I said "AUS" not "ATT". I'm quite aware that ATT is often colder.

[gpsnowman]

I can see it right now. Porta at the PWC desk with a Grey Goose on the rocks in one hand and a Marloboro Light in the other staring at the screen contemplating this bet from the Heat Miser. Having gone to the Dark Side a year ago and losing a bet already this season deep thought is needed about the pattern evolution in two weeks. His reputation is on the line. A lot is at stake. Stay tuned folks, things just got fun.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

On the 22nd we have a big snowstorm for the southern plains/panhandle region, should lay a nice, thick snow cover down. Notice the lack of a PV over the next few weeks. What i would love to see is a -EPO with the PV just west of Hudson Bay with a block over Greenland. I need to watch the southern plains snowstorm closely. 24 hours later and TPB is driving through that bad boy to Colorado

[Ntxw]

Are y'all using Bergstrom Airport as the official station? Mabry is usually a little colder just sayin

I said "AUS" not "ATT". I'm quite aware that ATT is often colder.

KAUS it is, how about I'll join hriverjr! But since you can only lose once, how about for each person that hits the bet you add an additional week (max through the spring equinox). Portastorm gets the 2 weeks first since he is our fearless leader should he take the bet?

Your minions, should we lose

[gboudx]

I'll jump in too. It's only an avatar right?

[wxman57]

Well, if I have to add on an extra week for each person who jumps in, then those who jump in have to do the same. If I'm at risk of replacing my avatar for 10 weeks (if 8 others join in), then those 8 others who jump in (except Portastorm who we agreed on 2 weeks) has to change their avatars for 10 weeks.

[Ntxw]

Well, if I have to add on an extra week for each person who jumps in, then those who jump in have to do the same. If I'm at risk of replacing my avatar for 10 weeks (if 8 others join in), then those 8 others who jump in (except Portastorm who we agreed on 2 weeks) has to change their avatars for 10 weeks.

Sounds good to me, so each person who jumps in the losing party must add an additional week to the base 2 weeks. 32F or less at KAUS by the 28th of January.

Hriverajr
Ntxw
gboudx

3 additional weeks should Portastorm take the bet.

[Portastorm]

I'm concerned about the terms changing here ... if we're saying two weeks then it needs to be no temp 32 or below at KAUS through January 29th.

[weatherdude1108]

Are y'all using Bergstrom Airport as the official station? Mabry is usually a little colder just sayin

I said "AUS" not "ATT". I'm quite aware that ATT is often colder.

Were you all just kidding? Bergstrom is usually consistently colder because of its lower elevation. The air pools down there due to "drainage winds." You see it cooler nearly all times of year.

Mabry (ATT) is almost always warmer because of its proximity to downtown and the resultant heat island effect. If you all were playing, never mind. Onward with the betting.

http://wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/winterawoc ... 100401.pdf

[wxman57]

I'm concerned about the terms changing here ... if we're saying two weeks then it needs to be no temp 32 or below at KAUS through January 29th.

Yep, that's it. Hopefully tonight stays just above freezing.

[orangeblood]

Well, if I have to add on an extra week for each person who jumps in, then those who jump in have to do the same. If I'm at risk of replacing my avatar for 10 weeks (if 8 others join in), then those 8 others who jump in (except Portastorm who we agreed on 2 weeks) has to change their avatars for 10 weeks.

Sounds good to me, so each person who jumps in the losing party must add an additional week to the base 2 weeks. 32F or less at KAUS by the 28th of January.

Hriverajr
Ntxw
gboudx

3 additional weeks should Portastorm take the bet.

Count me in....reminds of the Ohio St-Oregon bet I made a few nights ago - easssyyyyy money!!!

[wxman57]

Count me in....reminds of the Ohio St-Oregon bet I made a few nights ago - easssyyyyy money!!!

Yes, easy money!

[Ntxw]

Were you all just kidding? Bergstrom is usually consistently colder because of its lower elevation. The air pools down there due to "drainage winds." You see it cooler nearly all times of year.

Mabry (ATT) is almost always warmer because of its proximity to downtown and the resultant heat island effect. If you all were playing, never mind. Onward with the betting.

http://wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/winterawoc ... 100401.pdf

That's interesting, I've been tracking those locations during cold fronts and my impression was the departures tended to be greater at Mabry because it was further north and further west. But it does seem Bergstrom benefits more from the radiation cooling process due to it's elevation/location

4 weeks additional with orangeblood.

[txtiff]

I don't post much, but count me in. Want to make sure he hits the ten week mark.

[wxman57]

Now, you all realize, that along with a changed avatar comes a changed outlook on the type of weather you desire most? If I change my avatar to the cold miser, then I'll be stressing my desire for cold weather. It's not just an avatar change, you lose and you must constantly proclaim your desire for the heat of July.

[dhweather]

December starts tomorrow.

I don't think we see another freeze in the Metroplex for 10-14 days. Not saying winter is over, we will most certainly get another opportunity for freezing weather and wintry precip in February, a favorable month for us. But for the second half of January, I don't see much happening cold wise, still hopeful significant rains late next week. Warm up, get PWATS up > 2" and bring on the dynamics. PLEASE.

And Mexico, you can keep your flipping capping inversion.

Some of the coldest air of the season so far is showing up in the extended (8-14 day period) so care to explain your reasoning ?

I didn't see anything indicating it in the extended models last 3-4 runs. Statistically speaking, as far south as we are, it is simply hard to have sustained prolonged cold. Last year the stars lined up just right and we had it happen, in the middle of a drought, so we got little winter precip. The pattern this year had been cold in November, mild in Decemeber, then cold late December to mid January, now we are going back to a mild phase. If the pattern continues, we will see another round of cold air in a few weeks. My guess is very late January or early February.

Compare this winter to last - we've had one night in the mid teens, then quick modification of the airmass. Last year, we had several back to back days with lows in the teens, temperatures stayed at or below freezing for prolonged periods of time.

[gboudx]

LOL so the terms will continue to change as we go along here? What's next?

Speaking of "easy money", I'm sure vbhoutex wouldn't mind some $$$ for the site. Since I don't post much of anything useful, changing posting demeanor to a warm bias is nothing. I'll up the ante and donate an additional $20 on the 29th if I lose this bet.

[dhweather]

LOL so the terms will continue to change as we go along here? What's next?

Speaking of "easy money", I'm sure vbhoutex wouldn't mind some $$$ for the site. Since I don't post much of anything useful, changing posting demeanor to a warm bias is nothing. I'll up the ante and donate an additional $20 on the 29th if I lose this bet.

Great idea. Changing an avatar is one thing, putting your moeny where your mouth is , to support the site, is another.

[wxman57]

LOL so the terms will continue to change as we go along here? What's next?

Speaking of "easy money", I'm sure vbhoutex wouldn't mind some $$$ for the site. Since I don't post much of anything useful, changing posting demeanor to a warm bias is nothing. I'll up the ante and donate an additional $20 on the 29th if I lose this bet.

No changing terms, but along with any avatar comes an associated attitude. Portastorm is currently proclaiming his love for hot weather with his present avatar.

[Ntxw]

I didn't see anything indicating it in the extended models last 3-4 runs. Statistically speaking, as far south as we are, it is simply hard to have sustained prolonged cold. Last year the stars lined up just right and we had it happen, in the middle of a drought, so we got little winter precip. The pattern this year had been cold in November, mild in Decemeber, then cold late December to mid January, now we are going back to a mild phase. If the pattern continues, we will see another round of cold air in a few weeks. My guess is very late January or early February.

Compare this winter to last - we've had one night in the mid teens, then quick modification of the airmass. Last year, we had several back to back days with lows in the teens, temperatures stayed at or below freezing for prolonged periods of time.

It's controlled by the EPO though. December had a very modest +EPO average, there is no sign of a +EPO other than the 2-5 day transition the next few then it's modulating -EPO Pacific state. Both November and January so far has beaten last November and January to a pulp average wise, December this year clearly lost. The lows haven't been as low persistently because of cloud cover which kept daytime highs significantly colder while the warm ups after the cold last year were much more impressive due to more sunshine and warmer air masses. Something has to drive the warmth, it doesn't come from nowhere though! Well unless you're talking about a certain someone in Houston who constantly radiates heat...

5 weeks additional. Heat lovin Attitude, sure why not!?