Texas Winter 2014-2015

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3141 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:16 am

Just as example last January DFW finished off -1.9F below normal. Cold but nothing compared to now at -9.4F. It got to 80F...on the 20th. This warm up, mid 60s at best before it gets cold again. It got to 70+ a whopping 9 times last year. There is no way we even get within close unless you're talking about a string of 90F days. The most recent year with a January that average closer was 1985, refer to post yesterday.
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Re: Re:

#3142 Postby dhweather » Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:20 am

Ntxw wrote:
dhweather wrote:I didn't see anything indicating it in the extended models last 3-4 runs. Statistically speaking, as far south as we are, it is simply hard to have sustained prolonged cold. Last year the stars lined up just right and we had it happen, in the middle of a drought, so we got little winter precip. The pattern this year had been cold in November, mild in Decemeber, then cold late December to mid January, now we are going back to a mild phase. If the pattern continues, we will see another round of cold air in a few weeks. My guess is very late January or early February.

Compare this winter to last - we've had one night in the mid teens, then quick modification of the airmass. Last year, we had several back to back days with lows in the teens, temperatures stayed at or below freezing for prolonged periods of time.


It's controlled by the EPO though. December had a very modest +EPO average, there is no sign of a +EPO other than the 2-5 day transition the next few then it's modulating -EPO Pacific state. Both November and January so far has beaten last November and January to a pulp average wise, December this year clearly lost. The lows haven't been as low persistently because of cloud cover which kept daytime highs significantly colder while the warm ups after the cold last year were much more impressive due to more sunshine and warmer air masses. Something has to drive the warmth, it doesn't come from nowhere though! Well unless you're talking about a certain someone in Houston who constantly radiates heat...

5 weeks additional. Heat lovin Attitude, sure why not!?



That certain someone in Houston has some kind of advanced alien technology he uses to counter mother nature, I am convinced of this. :slime:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3143 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:31 am

Inner Portastorm again. Cat 5 in the gulf...that storm is still hovering

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Re: Re:

#3144 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:32 am

wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:I'm concerned about the terms changing here ... if we're saying two weeks then it needs to be no temp 32 or below at KAUS through January 29th.


Yep, that's it. Hopefully tonight stays just above freezing.


I'm going to respectfully DECLINE the bet. I wish my winter-loving friends the best of luck. I do not think the odds are in their favor at the moment.
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#3145 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:40 am

Is there room for me?? wxman57 your going down just like the temps on the last week of January! :D
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#3146 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:50 am

I will not get in on a bet for the Austin area, but I will say that overall this will go down as one of the coldest months in a long time for the state. As mentioned above the extremes have been avoided because of a persistent sub-trop jet, but there has not been any period of upper ridging here and there will not be any for the foreseeable future. This is the year of the 30/40 days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3147 Postby hriverajr » Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:51 am

Porta....he really has you psyched out...oh my
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#3148 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:02 pm

I think AUS will have a freeze personally, but im out! After the snowstorm in the panhandle seems to be the best oppurtunity.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3149 Postby ronyan » Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:03 pm

I'm not convinced we will see very cold temps in TX soon. The new GFS operational run is keeping very warm anomalies over Western Canada around the 20th-25th, and any significant cold plunges would likely occur after this period. However, the Euro is more favorable and doesn't maintain the warmth over W Canada long. As stated by others, the Ensemble 500mb flow does support cold in the US in the long range, but I'm not sure I want to bet my avatar on this one.
Last edited by ronyan on Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3150 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:03 pm

hriverajr wrote:Porta....he really has you psyched out...oh my


Meh ... I'm just not as convinced as many of you that our temps are going to bottom out late month. I see some signs showing that but the level of inconsistency I see in the operational models and ensembles make me hesitant to take the bet.

I wish you all the best of luck. Let me know if you need help with any warm weather-loving avatars. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3151 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:13 pm

The bets were keyed upon you accepting the bet, Portastorm.
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#3152 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:16 pm

Are we looking at the same guidance here? How is this not a favorable 500mb pattern for discharge of the Arctic? If you're relying on the OP you have consider it is going to the ENS not the other way around, the ENS have seen this for a good week now.

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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3153 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:17 pm

Portastorm wrote:
hriverajr wrote:Porta....he really has you psyched out...oh my


Meh ... I'm just not as convinced as many of you that our temps are going to bottom out late month. I see some signs showing that but the level of inconsistency I see in the operational models and ensembles make me hesitant to take the bet.

I wish you all the best of luck. Let me know if you need help with any warm weather-loving avatars. :wink:


Hey us cold mongers aren't the only ones seeing the cold coming....check out the Natural Gas Price chart this week, an incredible 9.5% rally yesterday

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Last edited by orangeblood on Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3154 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:17 pm

I do not think that late Jan will be very cold, but there will be a period of highs in the 30s for northern Texas along with moisture as we have seen for the past month. There are some indications that the AO may drop into the negatives so maybe we can finally get some snow. Before the month is over I do expect at least one more sub 25 temp here with sub 20 possible.
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#3155 Postby hriverajr » Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:31 pm

All we need is one freeze...nope was not tied to Porta taking the bet. I said I want in and you were like sure...so first bet of any kind equals two weeks each additional is added on hehe
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3156 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:37 pm

12Z GFS for Austin. Close next Friday.

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#3157 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:01 pm

Meanwhile thaw has begun and the sun has come out! Go out and enjoy it through Tuesday. Thick clouds and chill returns after that.
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#3158 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:14 pm

Am I the only one excited for the clouds and chill? I have mentioned before I love cloudy weather. Days like today where there isn't a cloud in the sky are just terrible and boring. :x
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Re: Re:

#3159 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:52 pm

Portastorm wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:I'm concerned about the terms changing here ... if we're saying two weeks then it needs to be no temp 32 or below at KAUS through January 29th.


Yep, that's it. Hopefully tonight stays just above freezing.


I'm going to respectfully DECLINE the bet. I wish my winter-loving friends the best of luck. I do not think the odds are in their favor at the moment.


And now he is quoting the Hunger Games...aiiiieeghhh....I quit. The Death Star took him. He is now a Borg. Ughhh. Thanks Wxman 57. Sheesh....my whole winter is now kaput...
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3160 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:01 pm

I'm just gonna leave this here:

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