WPAC: MEKKHALA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Just eyeballing this looks like center is over water again...

[euro6208]

I'd estimate a peak landfall intensity of 75 knots which is 5 knots higher than JTWC's 70 knots landfall based on average of dvorak numbers of 4.0= 65 knots and ADT which leveled out at 85 knots...

[euro6208]

01W MEKKHALA 150117 1200 12.6N 125.0E WPAC 55 982

Down to 55 knots...

[euro6208]

12.6N 125.0E Best Track just off the coast...

[euro6208]

Off the coast...



Center just southwest of Laoang Northern Samar



Next target...Sorosogon...

[euro6208]

Here is your in-depth full analysis on Mekkhala

WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (MEKKHALA) WARNING
NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
THROUGHOUT LANDFALL IN NORTHERN SAMAR. A 171243Z METOP-A AND 171109Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS
CONCENTRATED ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, WITH A LARGE WIND
FIELD AS SHOWN IN THE 170940Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND THE WEAKENING
STATE OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN-PHASE WITH THE SYSTEM MOTION
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MEKKHALA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. EXPECT FURTHER DECAY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RUNS
ALONG THE BICOL REGION AND INTO CENTRAL LUZON PAST TAU 24. EXPECT
STEADY DEGENERATION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM LUZON AS A DISSIPATED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A BIFURCATION IN THE FORECAST PAST TAU
36 WITH MANY MODELS RE-CURVING THROUGH EASTERN LUZON AND A FEW MORE
FLAT SCENARIOS. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD, THE JTWC TRACK IS LAID
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Some historical information on Mekkhala...Have to stop in 1990 since the WPAC IS SO BUSY!

Mekkhala is the first January typhoon to actually develop in January since 2005's Typhoon Kulap...

Kulap peaked at 65 knots...

Besides Kulap in 2005, the only other typhoon to actually develop in January goes way back to 1992's Typhoon Axel and 1990's Koryn both peaking at 70 and 75 knots...

What a start to the year!

Last major typhoon Cat 3 or higher to actually develop in January occurred in 1988, 17 years ago...Typhoon Roy when he peaked at Category 4 115 knots!

[euro6208]

[CrazyC83]

Based on the radar and satellite pics, I think the landfall intensity was 80 kt (1-min sustained).

[euro6208]

01W MEKKHALA 150118 0000 13.7N 123.5E WPAC 35 996

[euro6208]

Center over northern Bicol near San Miguel Bay...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (MEKKHALA) WARNING
NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO UNRAVEL AND ERODE AS
IT DRAGGED ACROSS THE BICOL REGION OF SOUTHERN LUZON. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AIDED BY A COMPOSITE DOPPLER
RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTLY OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MEKKHALA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. EXPECT FURTHER DECAY OF THE SYSTEM AS THE VWS
INCREASES AND AS IT CONTINUES TO DRAG OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
LUZON. THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN LUZON BY
TAU 36. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A WIDE SPREAD IN THE NUMERIC PREDICTION
MODELS - AN INDICATION OF AN ERRATIC VORTEX DUE TO WEAKENING. IN VIEW
OF THIS, THE JTWC TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

14.0N 122.5E or Southwest of Tagkawayan

WDPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (MEKKHALA) WARNING
NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
DECAY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH CALABARZON. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS EXTRAPOLATED
FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT)
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTLY OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. EXPECT TS MEKKHALA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. EXPECT FURTHER DECAY
OF THE SYSTEM AS THE VWS INCREASES AND TS 01W CONTINUES TO RUN OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CENTRAL LUZON. THE SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL LUZON BY TAU 36. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD BEYOND TAU 12 DUE
TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fE5c-AJ4nc[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

Good news that the Pope celebrated mass in Manila without any weather problem.

[dexterlabio]

Not even the rain from this storm can stop millions of people from attending the Papal mass.

[euro6208]

Mekkhala means Angel of Thunder...meets the Pope...

[euro6208]

JMA maintains a tropical storm while JTWC downgrades to a tropical depression...

WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (MEKKHALA)
WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DECAYING
AS IT EMERGES IN THE NORTHERN MOUTH OF THE POLILLO STRAIT. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEING OBSCURED BY DENSE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG (30 TO
40 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTLY OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD MEKKHALA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. UPON IMPACTING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL LUZON, EXPECT TD 01W TO CONTINUE TO DECAY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAIN RANGES ALONG THE COASTLINE. BY
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN
CORDILLERA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE
SPREAD BEYOND TAU 12 WHICH LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 182100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 022A AMENDED AND
RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 123.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 123.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.9N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.9N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 123.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BAGUIO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS IT WAS STRIPPED OF DEEP CONVECTION BY STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION AIDED BY A COMPOSITE DOPPLER RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FROM THE 181500Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. TD
MEKKHALA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 DUE TO THE HIGH VWS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: RELOCATED INITIAL
AND FORECAST POSITIONS AFTER ANALYSIS OF UPDATED AND MORE ACCURATE
SATELLITE DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z
IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN