2015 WPAC Season

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^They shown it consistently for the past 3 runs as a full-fledged typhoon :'(

[euro6208]

[dexterlabio]

This looks more and more like a recurving storm as per the recent model runs... Let's see if this would be the first typhoon of the year, IMO the chance isn't that low.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There's a fairly decent chance of a typhoon, however the 06Z GFS run is much weaker showing a 45-50 kt tropical storm.

Conditions are quite conducive...





It looks like a recurve is unlikely for now. Like WHAT HAPPENED to Bopha and Hagupit, and at the same time of year LINGLING..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

00z GFS and GFS Parallel have a strong tropical storm or weak typhoon

[euro6208]

Vertical Instability...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF also showing a well-defined closed TROPICAL STORM and GFS & Parallel show a typhoon.... Definitely raising an eyebrow

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The key difference tho is the track. Like what happened with Bopha and Hagupit, EC is with a landfall (hitting northern Mindanao) while GFS is with a recurve...

[euro6208]

Taking it's sweet time and seems to be stationary...

[cycloneye]

There is now invest 91W for the area the models are developing.

[euro6208]

First tropical cyclone of the year develops

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=117052

[euro6208]

Woah!

Is this really January?

This looks more like June out there...

Super Season???

[euro6208]

Good thing it's only January...

Last MJO of this strength back in November produced Cat 5 monster Hagupit as it neared the philippines...

[euro6208]

We could see many intense long trackers originating near the dateline in this el nino like setup. Huge impact for the islands.

[euro6208]

As we head to the climatogically slowest two months of the season, February and March, here is a look comparing history to 2015...

21 Tropical Storms in 2014 which is down from 2013...With el nino booming, could we see more?



Although lower than 2013 in TS, 2014 saw more Super Typhoons including three 155 knots monsters...Will we see more long trackers and thus category 5's?



Should ramp up soon...

[euro6208]

Looking forward to the next name because it was submitted by the Marianas...

Chamorro word for fruit *fig*...

HIGOS!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Higos sounds to be our next monster!!

[euro6208]

Higos sounds to be our next monster!!

Could happen since all models sayin no development until the first week of february and that would allow the ocean to get even warmer...

[ManilaTC]

Higos sounds to be our next monster!!

Could happen since all models sayin no development until the first week of february and that would allow the ocean to get even warmer...

February and March... the end of the NE Monsoon and the start of the EASTERLIES. Not good for TC development.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Perhaps our next system or storm will not form early next month or within the next 2 to 3 weeks based on the models... IMO I'm guessing something like Faxai or Sanvu but stronger. Again, it is just a guess.