Texas Winter 2014-2015

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS shows the storm with some wintry precip on the NW side, but looks to turn to all rain once it is in Central/East Texas. Maybe future model runs will lower the temps just enough to squeeze some wintry precip out of this:

[Brent]

12z gfs looks much more interesting could be frozen precip in N TX Thursday. I'm at work so can't post maps

[ronyan]

The precip looks heavier on the 12z GFS but the frozen stuff is still confined to NW TX and the panhandle.

[Ntxw]

Its cold aloft -2 to -3C on both GFS and Euro but 40s at the surface.

[TheProfessor]

I saw some people complaining about rain earlier, now I want a snow storm just as much or more than the next cold lover, but appreciate every drop rain, especially since this is usually are drier part of the year, and Summer is on the way with days of heat, dry, more heat and more dry (aka wxman57 weather) so yeah it might be upsetting that we haven't had a good snow storm, but at least it hasn't been dry like last winter.

[Ralph's Weather]

It is amazing how large the temp range has been the last couple days from morning to lunch time. Today was 28 for a low and 64 now.
I have not had a chance to look at the models, but from what I am hearing the end of the week is still pretty unclear. My current thinking is it will be similar to the beginning of January.

[Brent]

Too bad the NAM is usually dreadful... but...

[TheProfessor]

I believe it was the NAM that nailed the Snowstorm in 2010 So Who knows?

[Brent]

:uarrow: I believe it was the NAM that nailed the Snowstorm in 2010 So Who knows?

Hey I'm pulling for it... I'm actually off work for this one LOL

[Ntxw]

Out of curiosity I checked the soundings for DFW from the various models and model runs. Above our heads it's a very good sounding for wet snow. Well saturated throughout the column and cold enough from about 2 to 3 thousand feet and up. Dentritic growth zone is quite expansive (-10 to -20C zone) so lots of dentrites will be made aloft, so their chances of surviving may be more than just a fleeting moment. It's near the surface that remains warm. We want that to trend colder. Doesn't look like a sounding for any kind of ice potential for Texas. Either rain or snow. This is the case where it is much colder aloft, if you get heavier precip super cooled droplets/pulling cold air down vs the pulling down of warm air aloft which isn't there this round.

[MississippiWx]

Out of curiosity I checked the soundings for DFW from the various models and model runs. Above our heads it's a very good sounding for wet snow. Well saturated throughout the column and cold enough from about 2 to 3 thousand feet and up. Dentritic growth zone is quite expansive (-10 to -20C zone) so lots of dentrites will be made aloft, so their chances of surviving may be more than just a fleeting moment. It's near the surface that remains warm. We want that to trend colder. Doesn't look like a sounding for any kind of ice potential for Texas. Either rain or snow. This is the case where it is much colder aloft, if you get heavier precip super cooled droplets/pulling cold air down vs the pulling down of warm air aloft which isn't there this round.

This is exactly the problem our forecasters at NWS JAN are looking at here in Mississippi Thursday night. Will attach the relevant discussion.


ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
THROUGH MID-WEEK AND THEN SWING ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND TRACK EAST TOWARD FLORIDA. THIS WILL OVERSPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS(ESPECIALLY THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS) INDICATE THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW MOSTLY BUT THERE DOES REMAIN
A FAIRLY DEEP DRY LAYER AND IT IS FAIRLY WARM IN THE LOWEST PART OF
THAT LAYER. HOW HEAVY THE PRECIPITATION IS THAT FALLS THROUGH THIS
LAYER WILL HELP DETERMINE IF WE CAN SEE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION OUT
OF THIS...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY COME IN THE WAY OF SNOW. GIVEN THE
HEIGHT OF THE WET BULB ZERO LAYER...HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THIS WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN LATER FORECAST RUNS. ONE THING IS FOR
CERTAIN...THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WE ARE SEEING THIS WEEKEND WONT
LAST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK. /28/

[JDawg512]

It still is dreadful, for Austin at least...

[TexasF6]

#wintercancel

[Yukon Cornelius]

Yea, it doesn't seem very wintery with a high of 73 yesterday and forecasted high of 70 today. Hopefully the cold everyone is talking about actually does happen and makes its way down here.

[Brent]

No sign of cold in my 10 day forecast... unless you consider 50s/30s cold... which I don't. Not even a freeze shows up! and its been very consistent with this for a few days now.

Tick tock, spring is getting closer everyday

[Ralph's Weather]

I have stayed away from the models over the weekend and after looking at them this morning I am not seeing much winter like weather for our area anytime soon. Thursday will be cool with some snow over Northwestern parts of the state and possibly ending as snow over areas north of I-20 across the state if things play out just right. A widespread inch plus rain looks likely south of I-20. Beyond that there looks to be some shots of cool air, but nothing substantial. Hopefully things start looking better with future model runs.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If i dont see snow in Colorado next week, heads will roll.

[Portastorm]

Winter = cancel.

[Brent]

Winter = cancel.

Nooooo when are you coming back to the good side?

[srainhoutx]

If i dont see snow in Colorado next week, heads will roll.

If you are heading to the Mountains, you'll see plenty of snow. I flew from Santa Fe, NM to Denver yesterday afternoon en route home to Houston and the view from 27,000 feet was spectacular. Rarely in Winter do you not have clouds covering the Rockies obscuring your view from a jet, but yesterday it was amazingly clear and the snow covered Mountains across Colorado and New Mexico were spectacular. I talked to a lot of folks returning from skiing in Colorado while waiting in baggage claim at IAH last night and everyone thoroughly enjoyed their ski trips.