ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

December PDO data up to +2.51 A record for December and at 1997 levels

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

This news is very interesting as the PDO data for December is out and is a record levels for the month at +2.51.Also it compares very good to 1997 levels. So Ntxw, after all we have seen in a negative way for El Nino to come,what does this whopping data means? Maybe CFSv2 is right after all? Talking of only one state,Texas may benefit with this very positive PDO.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The cooling is not surprising, it is consistently indicated by the CFSv2 model, and even continue. It may even be near dead neutral by Spring then rise back to El Niño levels afterwards, by early Summer.

[euro6208]

I am DONE monitoring this nino until it actually starts to develop. Been a headache of ups and downs...

[cycloneye]

I am DONE monitoring this nino until it actually starts to develop. Been a headache of ups and downs...

Yeah I know. This has been a nightmare to forecasters and researchers.

[dexterlabio]

maybe this almost El Nino blip last year is all because of the PDO turning positive.....maybe the +2.51 reading is a sign that we are getting past the negative PDO era?

[cycloneye]

Here is the January ECMWF update that shows an uptick as Summer arrives.Right now ECMWF and CFSv2 are alike on that uptick so let's see if that comes thru a big Kelvin Wave has to spread eastward causing the waters to warm.Let's see what happens.

[cycloneye]

The Mid-January updated plume of ENSO models is up. The lone outlier upwards is CFSv2.





http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... iri_update

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The walker circulation, which describes tropospheric air flow across the Pacific, looks nothing like an El Nino--in fact, it more resembles a La Nina at this point. Despite an impressive westerly wind burst associated with a record-strong phase 5 MJO pulse, continued forcing is unlikely as we progress towards spring. Latest maps show the formation of a new upwelling kelvin wave across the Central/East Pacific. Things are not looking good for an El Nino.

maybe this almost El Nino blip last year is all because of the PDO turning positive.....maybe the +2.51 reading is a sign that we are getting past the negative PDO era?

The negative PDO era just began a few years ago. Short-term rises in an otherwise negative PDO era are completely normal.

[cycloneye]

Tx13,but it has been a big PDO rise getting close to 1997 levels. Doesn't matter how the rise is?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Tx13,but it has been a big PDO rise getting close to 1997 levels. Doesn't matter how the rise is?

I'm going to say no; values above 1.5 were recorded in 1957, which was part of an overall negative PDO era. The December value of 2.51 is anomalous regardless of PDO phase (10th highest on record going back to 1900).

[Kingarabian]

Tx13,but it has been a big PDO rise getting close to 1997 levels. Doesn't matter how the rise is?

I'm going to say no; values above 1.5 were recorded in 1957, which was part of an overall negative PDO era. The December value of 2.51 is anomalous regardless of PDO phase (10th highest on record going back to 1900).

And what if the PDO does not drop this upcoming year?

[cycloneye]

The kelvin wave has warmed things in the equatorial Pacific as Nino 3.4 has reached +0.5C after hovering the 0.0C.The other areas have also warmed.Now we see if the upwelling phase is strong to cool things down again.

First post

[Ntxw]

This week's update is back up to 0.5C. It seems there is a major SOI crash going on and easterlies have weakened significantly. A WWB ocurred in the WPAC with associating strong MJO last week and is progressing past the international dateline, though not as strong as it was. Likely the reason for the warming from the west.

[cycloneye]

This week's update is back up to 0.5C. It seems there is a major SOI crash going on and easterlies have weakened significantly. A WWB ocurred in the WPAC with associating strong MJO last week and is progressing past the international dateline, though not as strong as it was. Likely the reason for the warming from the west.

This time is on Tuesday because of MLK holiday but the result will be the same +0.5C.

[Yellow Evan]

The walker circulation, which describes tropospheric air flow across the Pacific, looks nothing like an El Nino--in fact, it more resembles a La Nina at this point. Despite an impressive westerly wind burst associated with a record-strong phase 5 MJO pulse, continued forcing is unlikely as we progress towards spring. Latest maps show the formation of a new upwelling kelvin wave across the Central/East Pacific. Things are not looking good for an El Nino.

maybe this almost El Nino blip last year is all because of the PDO turning positive.....maybe the +2.51 reading is a sign that we are getting past the negative PDO era?

The negative PDO era just began a few years ago. Short-term rises in an otherwise negative PDO era are completely normal.

It began around 1998. There's a good chance IMO the -PDO could be over.

[cycloneye]

Here is a cool link to the wind surface directions that you can manage as you want.I don't see big westerlies right now.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 8,0.50,348

[cycloneye]

No surprises on the weekly CPC update as it went up with Nino 3.4 to +0.5C while the ONI remains at +0.7C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Well,the Aussies no longer consider El Nino coming anytime soon but maybe later this year it may come. I heard that before.

Tropical Pacific Ocean moves from El Niño to neutral



Issued on 20 January 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

Since late 2014, most ENSO indicators have eased back from borderline El Niño levels. As the natural seasonal cycle of ENSO is now entering the decay phase, and models indicate a low chance of an immediate return to El Niño levels, neutral conditions are considered the most likely scenario through into autumn.

Central tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures have fallen by around half a degree from their peak of 1.1 °C above average in late November. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index has weakened to values more consistent with neutral conditions, while recent cloud patterns show little El Niño signature. As all models surveyed by the Bureau favour a continuation of these neutral conditions in the coming months, the immediate threat of El Niño onset appears passed for the 2014–15 cycle. Hence the ENSO Tracker has been reset to NEUTRAL. The Tracker will remain at NEUTRAL unless observations and model outlooks indicate a heightened risk of either La Niña or El Niño developing later this year.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Ntxw]

It is still possible to get the 5 consecutive trimonthlies for the Nino. ONI is going to be above 0.5C still for NDJ and the recent downwelling Kelvin wave in the WPAC (MJO passage) is going to keep it warm enough through February. I'm interested to see if the ocean is going to defy the atmosphere and give us the 5 monthlies anyway we already will have 3, meaning by the end of March it could be done. No true WWB progressing east but easterlies have weakened.

As for the rest of this year, I think IRI odds for La Nina are way to high. Typically when we surge into one it happens very quickly and there would be a massive cold pool already developing deep in the WPAC and pushing east. No signs of that anytime soon. La Nina's tend to happen much quicker than El Nino. While ENSO is not a stable forecast, guidance has been very good at long term SST configuration in the North Pacific, they keep the +PDO going for many more months at varying strengths.

[Ptarmigan]

December PDO data up to +2.51 A record for December and at 1997 levels

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

This news is very interesting as the PDO data for December is out and is a record levels for the month at +2.51.Also it compares very good to 1997 levels. So Ntxw, after all we have seen in a negative way for El Nino to come,what does this whopping data means? Maybe CFSv2 is right after all? Talking of only one state,Texas may benefit with this very positive PDO.

Here is another PDO data that goes back to 1854.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

December 2014 was a strong PDO, but not the strongest. I know this data is not used as much.