Texas Winter 2014-2015

[CaptinCrunch]

I'll take 50's/30's with a cold rain any day in Winter over sunny and 70's. We all knew the end of January was going to be warm, but I still believe that February will be the month of a good snow event for NTX. Winter isn't over by a long shot so just enjoy the warmth while it's here.

[gatorcane]

Yeah looking at the 384 hour GFS run I see no significant cold but the ECMWF shows some below normal temps for Texas in about 4 days from now so it should feel quite chilly if it verifies:

[dhweather]

12Z Euro run total precip. Most of the precip in Texas falls on Thursday, so that is basically our only chance for rain in the next 10 days.


AS ALWAYS - models 10 days out are not very reliable. Don't trust them beyond 3-4 days.

[dhweather]

FWD AFD

I pretty much quit reading at this point....

A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH NEARS AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 850MB-600MB LAYER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH FOR THURSDAY WHICH IS HIGH AND AT THE 2ND
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR MID JANUARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...THUS ANY CONVECTION POTENTIAL WOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BRECKENRIDGE TO
GAINESVILLE AND NORTHWARD...COULD SEE RAIN-SNOW MIX LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS AIR TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND ROADWAYS WILL ALSO BE WARM. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1/2 INCH OR LESS OF RAIN FROM I-20 NORTHWARD
AND 1/2 TO 1 1/2 INCHES ON THE AVERAGE TO THE SOUTH OF I-20. AREAS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A COMANCHE TO CENTERVILLE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
RECEIVING THE MOST RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
WARM MUCH ON THURSDAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND LACK OF INSOLATION.

[Brent]

I miss winter storms

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I miss winter storms

What's a winter storm?

[hriverajr]

I'm getting close to throwing in the towel as well...

[Brent]

I miss winter storms

What's a winter storm?

What a sorry excuse for a winter honestly nothing I hate worse than hype that is a bunch of nothing and cold that is bone dry... And who can forget the 33 and rain nonsense. Hate.

[Portastorm]

Winter lovers should check out Larry Cosgrove's tweets tonight.

[orangeblood]

I'm getting close to throwing in the towel as well...

If you looked at the Euro Weeklies tonight, I'd reconsider that towel throw....Western Canada becomes source region for very cold air starting around 1st of Feb, western to central US trough develops/EPO goes negative - forcing Polar air straight down into Central/Southern Plains. Feb 1st-15th is prime winter weather time in these parts, 4th quarter is where the game is won - don't give up now!!!

[orangeblood]

Winter lovers should check out Larry Cosgrove's tweets tonight.

LarryCosgrove
‏@LarryCosgrove
Ice/snow threat looming northern 1/2 Texas January 21-23; heavy rain, thunderstorms I-10 San Antonio/Houston/Beaumont

He's really going out on his own on this one....models are trending colder but not anything like he's predicting

[hriverajr]

Well Porta has me down...:/ I said I would consider it. BTW wx57 has not changed his avatar, and I saw him active on the KHOU forums today. Whats up with that? :p

[srainhoutx]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

Mild, dry, and sunny conditions since last Friday will continue through tomorrow.

Zonal flow aloft has resulted in a warming and drying trends compared to the last few weeks of clouds, cold and rain. Winds have returned from the south today and this is resulting in a steady but gradual moistening trend of the low level air mass. Increasing moisture and clear skies along with calm winds tonight should promote areas of dense fog on Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be warmer than today with southerly flow continuing and compressional heating south of an incoming frontal boundary expected to arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Highs will reach the lower to mid 70’s. Enjoy as this will be quickly ended on Wednesday.

Front will cross the area early Wednesday with temperatures cooler on Wednesday with cold air advection and increasing cloud cover. Short wave trough over the SW US will deepen and slow its eastward progression resulting in a period of strong overrunning moisture above the surface cold dome late Wednesday through early Friday with Thursday being the target day for widespread rainfall. Lift and moisture really ramp up Wednesday evening and expect light rain to develop SW to NE across the area after sunset and become increasingly widespread and heavier during the day on Thursday. PWS rise to 1.2-1.4 inches which is respectable for middle January so think a good soaking rainfall is likely for much of the area and much of the state for that matter. It will be cold both Thursday and Friday with temperatures holding in the 40’s through much of the period for both lows and highs.

Will go with widespread amounts of 1-2 inches and favor the SW half of the region for the higher amounts. A few locations could see locally higher amounts (greater than 2.0 inches) where any heavier rains train on Thursday. General thinking is that this will be mainly stratiform rainfall with a few embedded convective cells and this should keep rainfall rates on the lower side (possibly up to .25-.50 of an inch an hour under the heaviest cells). May need to bump rainfall totals up a little more over the next 48 hours given statured profiles being shown and potential for a slower moving system lingering rainfall into Friday.

Storm system should move eastward by late Friday with clearing and mild conditions expected for next weekend (similar to this weekend, but maybe a touch colder).

[Ralph's Weather]

This storm is the opposite of what we have seen for most of this winter and last winter with the cold above the surface. Heavy precip could lead to snow with temps in the upper 30s which could result in slushy conditions if heavy enough.

[aggiecutter]

I'm surprised this hasn't been posted:

[Brent]

Winter lovers should check out Larry Cosgrove's tweets tonight.

LarryCosgrove
‏@LarryCosgrove
Ice/snow threat looming northern 1/2 Texas January 21-23; heavy rain, thunderstorms I-10 San Antonio/Houston/Beaumont

He's really going out on his own on this one....models are trending colder but not anything like he's predicting

Dont we need freezing temps at the surface for ice? I don't see it... this will either be heavy snow if we can overcome the warm air at the surface or the story of the winter a miserable cold rain

[TheProfessor]

Cold rain is never miserable, All rain is precious! At least here in Texas

[Brent]

:uarrow: Cold rain is never miserable, All rain is precious! At least here in Texas

Sorry I'm a Texas newbie. lol. I come from Alabama where if it doesn't rain every week it's breaking news LOL

[TheProfessor]

Yeah you came during our drought years where we are desperate for rain, Its supposed to last till 2022 apparently.

[Brent]

:uarrow: Yeah you came during our drought years where we are desperate for rain, Its supposed to last till 2022 apparently.

I hope spring has some good storms... I've always wanted to chase out here and I was out here last May for almost 2 weeks and nothing much happened lol. Although.. the free time I did see New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska for the first time... as well as San Antonio, Corpus, Padre Island, and even Mexico through the fence...

I am however, dreading the Texas summer. I moved out here at the end of September lol.