Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

As usual Cavanaugh has a great discussion out of FWD this morning. He acknowledges that there is a small chance for heavy snow NW of DFW Wed night into Thu if temps are lower than expected.

[orangeblood]

As usual Cavanaugh has a great discussion out of FWD this morning. He acknowledges that there is a small chance for heavy snow NW of DFW Wed night into Thu if temps are lower than expected.

Yeah, that chance seems to be increasing on every subsequent model run...the system is becoming deeper/more dynamic and almost has a look that the trough could go neutral to almost negative tilt as it transverses the state. This would bring much colder air down to the surface, still think it will too warm at the surface for anything to accumulate but would be nice to see a few flakes in the air for the N/2 of North Texas late Thursday into Friday.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a significant winter storm across New Mexico with a growing potential for accumulating snow across the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. The SREF plumes NW of the Metroplex tend to raise an eyebrow with dewpoints borderline with several plumes indicating a brief round of heavy snow near Graham. Further south in the warm sector, the short-term meso guidance is indicating a stronger Coastal low/trough developing near Matagorda moving ENE with a heavy rainfall potential along the Upper Texas Coast on E into Southern Louisiana. The trends are slowing the progression of the positive tilted cold upper trough by about 12 to 18 hours with some wrap around moisture as colder air is pulled S in the wake of the surface low and a cold pocket aloft trailing the Coastal low. The soundings become borderline with the wrap around moisture possibly ending as some very cold rain mixed with a sleet pellet or two across portions of Central and E Texas on Friday extending from near Georgetown/Temple and possibly into the Bryan/College Station to Centerville and Lufkin areas into Louisiana near Fort Polk. It is still too far out to know with any certainty, but may be worth monitoring for any surprise wintry mischief. Surface temperatures look too warm for any major problems at this time.

[dhweather]

:uarrow: Cold rain is never miserable, All rain is precious! At least here in Texas

Every single drop. I've given up hope for snow, I'll take all the rain we can get.

[dhweather]

As usual Cavanaugh has a great discussion out of FWD this morning. He acknowledges that there is a small chance for heavy snow NW of DFW Wed night into Thu if temps are lower than expected.

That's what makes Dennis' AFD's so great, he lays out the entire picture, the spectrum of possibilities, picks his forecast and explains exactly why he did it.


We've been near 70 the last couple of days, it will not snow appreciably in Rockwall County. Too warm lately. I don't care about snow any more, I've given up. We desperately need rain, and a LOT of it. I don't think people understand the dire circumstances we are in with our two major drinking water lakes in the eastern Metroplex. Ray Hubbard is at an all time low, Lake Lavon is not much better off.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Looks like my area might actually see a little snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

[orangeblood]

As usual Cavanaugh has a great discussion out of FWD this morning. He acknowledges that there is a small chance for heavy snow NW of DFW Wed night into Thu if temps are lower than expected.

That's what makes Dennis' AFD's so great, he lays out the entire picture, the spectrum of possibilities, picks his forecast and explains exactly why he did it.


We've been near 70 the last couple of days, it will not snow appreciably in Rockwall County. Too warm lately. I don't care about snow any more, I've given up. We desperately need rain, and a LOT of it. I don't think people understand the dire circumstances we are in with our two major drinking water lakes in the eastern Metroplex. Ray Hubbard is at an all time low, Lake Lavon is not much better off.

Did you ever 'believe' in the 1st place ?

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow: Cold rain is never miserable, All rain is precious! At least here in Texas

Every single drop. I've given up hope for snow, I'll take all the rain we can get.

Ditto that! I'll take whatever comes. Cold rain, warm rain, freezing rain...,it's all water, which our drinking water lakes Buchanan and Travis (at 34% combined) so desperately need.

[orangeblood]

Wow, the NAM continues its trend of colder/wetter with each run....now has a SOLID 1-2.5 inches of rain for almost the entire Northeast 1/2 of the State.

[Ralph's Weather]

Wow, the NAM continues its trend of colder/wetter with each run....now has a SOLID 1-2.5 inches of rain for almost the entire Northeast 1/2 of the State.

The 12Z NAM definitely continues the NAM's trend of slower, further north and colder. If it were to verify there could be some accumulating snow Friday morning over Northeast Texas. The NAM often picks up on things before the GFS, but it tends to overdo precip. I do trust it pretty well for short to medium range (12-72 hours) temps and precip timing.

It is odd how models from 10+ days out seem to be more accurate than models from days 3-7 out. I have always had a feeling this one could bring some decent snow to a large part of the state. The thing that we lack is a good source region and snowpack so surface temps will be dependent on how much cold can be brought down from above which is very tricky to nail down ahead of time.

[Sambucol]

Wow, the NAM continues its trend of colder/wetter with each run....now has a SOLID 1-2.5 inches of rain for almost the entire Northeast 1/2 of the State.

The 12Z NAM definitely continues the NAM's trend of slower, further north and colder. If it were to verify there could be some accumulating snow Friday morning over Northeast Texas. The NAM often picks up on things before the GFS, but it tends to overdo precip. I do trust it pretty well for short to medium range (12-72 hours) temps and precip timing.

It is odd how models from 10+ days out seem to be more accurate than models from days 3-7 out. I have always had a feeling this one could bring some decent snow to a large part of the state. The thing that we lack is a good source region and snowpack so surface temps will be dependent on how much cold can be brought down from above which is very tricky to nail down ahead of time.

What can we expect in SE Texas from this front?

[dhweather]

As usual Cavanaugh has a great discussion out of FWD this morning. He acknowledges that there is a small chance for heavy snow NW of DFW Wed night into Thu if temps are lower than expected.

That's what makes Dennis' AFD's so great, he lays out the entire picture, the spectrum of possibilities, picks his forecast and explains exactly why he did it.


We've been near 70 the last couple of days, it will not snow appreciably in Rockwall County. Too warm lately. I don't care about snow any more, I've given up. We desperately need rain, and a LOT of it. I don't think people understand the dire circumstances we are in with our two major drinking water lakes in the eastern Metroplex. Ray Hubbard is at an all time low, Lake Lavon is not much better off.

Did you ever 'believe' in the 1st place ?

With the cool snap in the Summer and the November blast, I honestly thought this would be a snow year, at least 2-3 really good chances. Then December came and now said "no snow for you". I blame the Faux Nino, we had an overall pattern to continue allowing arctic intrusions (as evidenced by the unusual cool snap in the summer and November), and Faux Nino was just enough to top the scales out of favor.

Adding to my agony with Faux Nino, most of us felt it would be good enough to help with drought, CPC even had us long range "above normal" precip, now they've backed off to normal. They also left a good chunk of Texas in "drought persists or intensifies", where before they had a large part of the state with "improvement".

[dhweather]

:uarrow: Cold rain is never miserable, All rain is precious! At least here in Texas

Every single drop. I've given up hope for snow, I'll take all the rain we can get.

Ditto that! I'll take whatever comes. Cold rain, warm rain, freezing rain...,it's all water, which our drinking water lakes Buchanan and Travis (at 34% combined) so desperately need.

AMEN!


A lot of the state is not too far off from getting what far West Texas has gotten, and even as close as Wichita Falls, wastewater treated and recycled back into the drinking water mix. I know that sounds apocalyptic, but the folks now having to do that did not think it would happen to them either. And we have exponentially larger population bases in the Metroplex, Austin, and San Antonio tapping an extremely limited source that nature is not replenishing.

[Ralph's Weather]

Wow, the NAM continues its trend of colder/wetter with each run....now has a SOLID 1-2.5 inches of rain for almost the entire Northeast 1/2 of the State.

The 12Z NAM definitely continues the NAM's trend of slower, further north and colder. If it were to verify there could be some accumulating snow Friday morning over Northeast Texas. The NAM often picks up on things before the GFS, but it tends to overdo precip. I do trust it pretty well for short to medium range (12-72 hours) temps and precip timing.

It is odd how models from 10+ days out seem to be more accurate than models from days 3-7 out. I have always had a feeling this one could bring some decent snow to a large part of the state. The thing that we lack is a good source region and snowpack so surface temps will be dependent on how much cold can be brought down from above which is very tricky to nail down ahead of time.

What can we expect in SE Texas from this front?

SE TX should see up to 2 inches of rain mainly on Thursday with temps around 50.

[wxman57]

Thursday looks rather rainy across Houston. Temps gradually fall after today then gradually rise after Saturday.

[Tireman4]

Thursday looks rather rainy across Houston. Temps gradually fall after today then gradually rise after Saturday.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zjan20.gif

Ughgh. Cold rain. Gee, just snow will ya...ughhh

[Ntxw]

Wow, the NAM continues its trend of colder/wetter with each run....now has a SOLID 1-2.5 inches of rain for almost the entire Northeast 1/2 of the State.

The 12Z NAM definitely continues the NAM's trend of slower, further north and colder. If it were to verify there could be some accumulating snow Friday morning over Northeast Texas. The NAM often picks up on things before the GFS, but it tends to overdo precip. I do trust it pretty well for short to medium range (12-72 hours) temps and precip timing.

It is odd how models from 10+ days out seem to be more accurate than models from days 3-7 out. I have always had a feeling this one could bring some decent snow to a large part of the state. The thing that we lack is a good source region and snowpack so surface temps will be dependent on how much cold can be brought down from above which is very tricky to nail down ahead of time.

Indeed, as well the models have trended for a stronger system at 5h consolidating vs pieces, perhaps trying to wind up. 5H vorticity tracks just south of I-20 which is ideal for surprises. If that does happen the odds increase for rain on the front end and eventually cold air aloft works it's way down as the system is overhead and a changeover to a wet snow possibility.

[Yukon Cornelius]

NWS has my area for a 70% chance of rain and snow Wednesday night, going into Thursday morning with a low of 33. Would that change to all snow if the temperature was to make it down to 32 or below?

[Ntxw]

NWS has my area for a 70% chance of rain and snow Wednesday night, going into Thursday morning with a low of 33. Would that change to all snow if the temperature was to make it down to 32 or below?

It will be mostly snow if it happens. Getting 32 or below increases the chances it will stick.

If you want to snow chase the panhandle is it. 6-10" around Amarillo especially the western panhandle into New Mexico where a foot or more could fall.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well, hopefully the roads will be clear for my trip by the time i get there. I think the temp will be 35 on Saturday which should melt any snow on the roads.