TC NIKO: SPAC

[wxman57]

It looks more like a strong TC than an invest. Eye appears to be forming on microwave imagery. RapidSCAT indicates 40-45kt winds about 8 hours ago. What does it take to get classified in that area? I better head on over to Tahiti to investigate. This could take months...

[jaguarjace]

07P SEVEN 150120 1800 13.6S 150.6W SHEM 45 989

[HurricaneBill]

Next name on the SPAC list is "Nute".

[Alyono]

RSMC Nadi, for reasons that I cannot understand at all, is saying this has very little chance to even develop

I'd like to know what they are looking at, when it is clear beyond a shadow of a doubt, this is a TC

[euro6208]

Next name on the SPAC list is "Nute".

Niko is appearing on the tc pages...

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone NIKO
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 2 issued 0120 UTC Wednesday 21 January 2015



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 21/0219 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NIKO CENTRE 995HPA [CAT 1]WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
150.2W AT 210000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 9 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

CONVECTION PERSISTENT AND ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS.THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD IN EASTERN FLANK BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 400HPA.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 0.60 WRAP THUS YIELDS
T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. DT=3.0, PT=2.5, MET AGREES WITH PT. FT BASED ON
DT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 15.4S 148.9W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 220000 UTC 16.9S 147.4W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 18.8S 146.1W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 230000 UTC 21.0S 145.0W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE NIKO WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 210800 UTC.

[euro6208]

07P NIKO 150121 1200 15.7S 149.5W SHEM 50 985

[HurricaneBill]

Next name on the SPAC list is "Nute".

Niko is appearing on the tc pages...

They must've decided to use a different name. They do that now and then.

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone NIKO
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 21 issued 0717 UTC Thursday 22 January 2015



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 22/0753 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NIKO CENTRE 992HPA [CAT 1]WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2S
147.5W AT 220600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 45 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES
IN EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

CONVECTION PERSISTENT AND OVERALL ORGANISATION GOOD PAST 24 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM LIES JUST WEST OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SHEAR INCREASING PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO A SHARPENING
EASTWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF SYSTEM. OUTFLOW GOOD IN
EASTERN FLANK BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 0.40 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.5,
MET=3.0, PT=2.5
FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 20.1S 146.3W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 230600 UTC 22.2S 145.4W MOV SSE AT 11 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 231800 UTC 24.5S 144.9W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 240600 UTC 26.7S 145.0W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE NIKO WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 221400 UTC.

[euro6208]

07P NIKO 150122 1200 18.9S 146.9W SHEM 55 982

[jaguarjace]

07P NIKO 150122 1800 20.7S 146.1W SHEM 55 982

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone NIKO
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 26 issued 1256 UTC Friday 23 January 2015



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 23/1344 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NIKO CENTRE 995HPA [CAT 1]WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8S
145.6W AT 231200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE NIKO WEAKENING.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 6
HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING OVER SUPPOSE LLCC. THE SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW
RESTRICTED IN THE WESTERN FLANK BUT FAIR ELSEWHERE. NIKO BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LESS THAN 0.75 DEGREE
FROM STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT YIELDING A DT OF 2.5, MET AND PT
AGREED AT 2.0. THUS, T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 26.1S 145.9W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 241200 UTC 28.6S 147.1W MOV SSE AT 11 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE NIKO WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 232000 UTC.

[jaguarjace]

JTWC Final Warning

WTPS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NIKO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 27.3S 146.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 146.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 30.2S 148.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 28.0S 147.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (NIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE COMBINED
EFFECT OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORBLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY TC NIKO LEADING TO DISSIPATION
OVER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR SOONER. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

07P NIKO 150124 1200 29.1S 148.2W SHEM 30 1000