Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Yukon Cornelius]

Thanks man! Does anyone have any type of map that is showing predicted or forecasted accumulations for the state?

[orangeblood]

Thanks man! Does anyone have any type of map that is showing predicted or forecasted accumulations for the state?

Here is the latest NAM snowfall accumulation map...don't put too much stock into this until around 24-36 hours out and even that might be troublesome. I would anticipate the gaps between Abilene and Texarkana could fill in as we get closer.

[wxman57]

Thanks man! Does anyone have any type of map that is showing predicted or forecasted accumulations for the state?

I made a contoured 24-hr snowfall from the 12Z Euro (below). It keeps the snow farther NW than the NAM. I don't have the option of plotting snowfall in GFS at the moment so I plotted a 24-hr precip map. I indicated which areas are likely snow and which are likely rain.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the primary difference between the GFS and NAM is that the NAM is a bit deeper with the 500mb low. 552 on NAM and 558 on GFS. ECMWF looks as strong or stronger than the NAM at 500mb. The NAM is showing 1000-500mb depth reaching 534 while the GFS hold at around 540. 540 is usually a good r/s indicator.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Thanks guys! I appreciate it.

[orangeblood]

Check out the Polar Express showing up on the 12 Euro (1046 into Northern Plains and a 1057 on its heels)....toot toot!!!!! With a trough coming into California and a 1045 + HP coming straight out of the Arctic, late January should be very interesting around here!

[wxman57]

Curious, as to how much cold air the Euro is forecasting to move south toward Texas, I took a look at predicted surface temps on that 240-hr Euro (6am Jan 30th) and see 50 around Dallas, 38 in Oklahoma City, upper 20s in central Kansas, low 20s in Nebraska and mid teens in the western Dakotas. Sub-zero temps are confined to the eastern Dakotas, much of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. The Euro isn't indicating any significant cold coming down the Plains. Will have to see what the source region in western Canada looks like by the end of the month. For now, the Euro indicates above normal temps at 240hrs from Texas north through the western Dakotas and BC/Alberta in Canada. Big high but no big cold air.

Look at the 850mb warm temperature anomaly in western Canada (source region):



The predicted (12Z EC) 500mb pattern would shunt the cold air off quickly to the east across the Great Lakes and New England:

[dhweather]

2.6 magnitude earthquake in Irving

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... ki#summary

[Portastorm]

Isn't this "winter" weather awesome, wxman57?!

Mid 70s and sunshine today in your capital city for Governor Abbott's inauguration ceremonies. A beautiful day. Unfortunately it will get colder later this week.

[hriverajr]

Isn't someone supposed to change their avatar?

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z NAM a bit warmer and less precip so not showing much snow outside of Panhandle where it is almost certain that most get 3+ inches and some may near a foot around Dalhart.

[wxman57]

I plotted 2m temps at 240hrs from the 12Z Euro. The thick black line is 30F (couldn't select 32F). Sub-zero temps start at the red contour.

[wxman57]

Isn't someone supposed to change their avatar?

I believe that the bet was contingent upon Portastorm accepting. And the focus was to be next week, not last Friday, which I acknowledged was the best chance for Austin to reach 32 over the next 2 weeks.

[Tireman4]

Isn't this "winter" weather awesome, wxman57?!

Mid 70s and sunshine today in your capital city for Governor Abbott's inauguration ceremonies. A beautiful day. Unfortunately it will get colder later this week.

I thought the rescue mission was in route. Oh wait, mum is the word. Oh yeah, woo hoo...90's are coming ( eh Porta?)

[wxman57]

However, since I didn't stipulate that last Friday was excluded from the bet, and since there was some confusion as to whether it was "on" when Portastorm bowed-out, I'll go along for a few bit.

Man, this warm winter weather sucks! I'm ready for some cold weather and precip - preferably snow but I'll take a nice very cold rain!

[Tireman4]

However, since I didn't stipulate that last Friday was excluded from the bet, and since there was some confusion as to whether it was "on" when Portastorm bowed-out, I'll go along for a few bit.

Man, this warm winter weather sucks! I'm ready for some cold weather and precip - preferably snow but I'll take a nice very cold rain!

Ok, what is going on? The Bi-Polar Wxman 57 is back. Oh dear Lord. I knew it. I knew. This whole 2015 is screwy. Watch and see it snow in Houston in March. I hate Weather...LOL

[hriverajr]

Hmm.. last friday was not excluded from the bet, and you made the stipulation later.. haha.. I put my avatar (lack of) on the line.

[wxman57]

Hmm.. last friday was not excluded from the bet, and you made the stipulation later.. haha.. I put my avatar (lack of) on the line.

I still don't see any cold coming next week (sub-freezing). Too bad, I love it cold!

[hriverajr]

hahah.... No it does not look too cold.. besides I have beginning of semester issues, to worry too much about it..

[Yukon Cornelius]

With all the talk of everyone throwing in the towel, giving up on winter and the warm weather...