Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3341 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:58 pm

Something about mid January and winter cancels. It never fails every year for some reason the period between Jan 10th and 20th (strongest) is the hotbed for it :lol:

! And then there is almost always some kind of threat that then ensues early February.

#3342 Postby **gpsnowman** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:03 pm

Although I am extremely disappointed in this winter so far, I remain hopeful for something in the second half. We do have a ways to go. Perspiring in mid/late January sucks as far as I am concerned. I find it hard to believe that the only real winter highlight will be a mid November snow flurry. February has delivered many times in the past. Some real doozies. Stay strong winter lovers!!! It's not over yet!!!

#3343 Postby **Ralph's Weather** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:06 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Although I am extremely disappointed in this winter so far, I remain hopeful for something in the second half. We do have a ways to go. Perspiring in mid/late January sucks as far as I am concerned. I find it hard to believe that the only real winter highlight will be a mid November snow flurry. February has delivered many times in the past. Some real doozies. Stay strong winter lovers!!! It's not over yet!!!

Winter sure has a long way to go and many of us could see some snow this week. A good sign is that the CFS model is showing little snow over the next month over northern Texas so that should mean we will get a foot as it showed a foot for most of the state in January.

#3344 Postby **Yukon Cornelius** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:14 pm

I really don't feel like winter is over yet. I love winter as much, if not more than most of you here. I figured if I act like I don't care, then possibly I'll get some snow or colder temps! Maybe it will work, maybe not. Traveling to Wisconsin the past couple of winter to visit inlaws has spoiled me to what winter should be like!

#3345 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:19 pm

This should be encouraging from the SOI, lag effect is about 6-10 days.

The last crash was just before Christmas, a week down the road later Early January happened.

#3346 Postby **TheProfessor** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:56 pm

NWS FWD has now introduced a chance for rain snow Thursday Afternoon and Friday Morning for the Northwestern 3/4ths of the WFA. If the models continue to forecast temperature drops and the low is even stronger than models are showing then thing might get interesting.

#3347 Postby **Ralph's Weather** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:57 pm

Ntxw wrote:This should be encouraging from the SOI, lag effect is about 6-10 days.

The last crash was just before Christmas, a week down the road later Early January happened.

The Euro has seemed to be supporting the idea of a late month cold blast while the GFS has shown torch. I am betting on the Euro this go around.

Website · #3348 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:16 pm

I hope February delivers because I refuse to believe a light dusting in freaking November is it..

#3349 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:33 pm

You know the strange irony about this is of all places to see a trace of snow so far this winter before many other places as of today was right here in Jax almost 2 weeks ago. I never would have thought that this region would experience a light snow event before many of you in Texas and in the Deep South have to this point of the season. 8-)

.

TeamPlayersBlue · #3350 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:02 pm

The SOI crashing, this has to do with the MJO being in a favorable zone right? I need moisture in CO next week so i can see snow

I have this thing where i try and see winter precip fall every year and this may be my only chance!!!!

Website · #3351 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:21 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: You know the strange irony about this is of all places to see a trace of snow so far this winter before many other places as of today was right here in Jax almost 2 weeks ago. I never would have thought that this region would experience a light snow event before many of you in Texas and in the Deep South have to this point of the season. .

I lived in Central Alabama til last summer and they haven't seen even a flake of snow yet... So we are somehow ahead of them lol

#3352 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:38 pm

Man the NAM is dumping a lot of QPF. If we could get 5 or so degrees colder at the surface and get some help with dynamic cooling anyone who switches over to wet snow could get some heavy rates.

#3353 Postby **orangeblood** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:06 pm

Ntxw wrote:Man the NAM is dumping a lot of QPF. If we could get 5 or so degrees colder at the surface and get some help with dynamic cooling anyone who switches over to wet snow could get some heavy rates.

Yep, NAM snowfall output filling in quite nicely....

#3354 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:20 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Man the NAM is dumping a lot of QPF. If we could get 5 or so degrees colder at the surface and get some help with dynamic cooling anyone who switches over to wet snow could get some heavy rates.

Yep, NAM snowfall output filling in quite nicely....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_21.png

Even with the Kuchera method (wxaster) which is always much more conservative shows potential (vs the basic algorithm most sites use). Like I mention you switch over and especially that the models are showing it happening when the sun is down it could happen. Dynamic cooling possibly in two rounds, with the very heavy convective precip or back end (or both) as the ULL crosses to the south.

#3355 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:22 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Although I am extremely disappointed in this winter so far, I remain hopeful for something in the second half. We do have a ways to go. Perspiring in mid/late January sucks as far as I am concerned. I find it hard to believe that the only real winter highlight will be a mid November snow flurry. February has delivered many times in the past. Some real doozies. Stay strong winter lovers!!! It's not over yet!!!

Winter sure has a long way to go and many of us could see some snow this week. A good sign is that the CFS model is showing little snow over the next month over northern Texas so that should mean we will get a foot as it showed a foot for most of the state in January.

Please do not put any faith in the CFS. It honestly needs to go.

#3356 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:23 pm

Brent wrote:I hope February delivers because I refuse to believe a light dusting in freaking November is it..

Say "Thank You Faux Nino" - it blew a good setup. Without cold air, there is ZERO chance of snow.

Website · #3357 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:24 pm

Wow the Nam looks good... Hope its a trend towards a backside real snow instead of a front side mix

#3358 Postby **Ralph's Weather** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:26 pm

The NAM is very interesting mainly in that it brings the freezing line down to I-20 in E TX. It has saturation up to about 700mb with temps around -10C at that level. That is a pretty good now sounding to me as long as there is enough lift.
Also the Panhandle and New Mexico are in for a major dump with over a foot in many areas.

#3359 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:36 pm

I just do not see it happening. It may fall as snow, but it will melt quickly - it was in the 70's today. It has been well above freezing for several days.

#3360 Postby **Ralph's Weather** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:09 pm

dhweather wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Although I am extremely disappointed in this winter so far, I remain hopeful for something in the second half. We do have a ways to go. Perspiring in mid/late January sucks as far as I am concerned. I find it hard to believe that the only real winter highlight will be a mid November snow flurry. February has delivered many times in the past. Some real doozies. Stay strong winter lovers!!! It's not over yet!!!

Winter sure has a long way to go and many of us could see some snow this week. A good sign is that the CFS model is showing little snow over the next month over northern Texas so that should mean we will get a foot as it showed a foot for most of the state in January.

Please do not put any faith in the CFS. It honestly needs to go.

I was being sarcastic, I don't know how a model can be worse than a coin flip but it is.

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