Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

I just do not see it happening. It may fall as snow, but it will melt quickly - it was in the 70's today. It has been well above freezing for several days.

Yes the ground is warm, but I would say that most of our snows are preceded by warmth. I don't think anyone is expecting snow to pool up and stick around in this area just maybe mmakethings white for a short time.

[dhweather]

Winter sure has a long way to go and many of us could see some snow this week. A good sign is that the CFS model is showing little snow over the next month over northern Texas so that should mean we will get a foot as it showed a foot for most of the state in January.

Please do not put any faith in the CFS. It honestly needs to go.[/quote]
I was being sarcastic, I don't know how a model can be worse than a coin flip but it is.[/quote]

Don't insult coin flips!

[dhweather]

I just do not see it happening. It may fall as snow, but it will melt quickly - it was in the 70's today. It has been well above freezing for several days.

Yes the ground is warm, but I would say that most of our snows are preceded by warmth. I don't think anyone is expecting snow to pool up and stick around in this area just maybe mmakethings white for a short time.

Which is much better than nothing. It is really pretty in southern Rockwall county when it snows significantly, I love it. But getting it is the problem.

[orangeblood]

Really active next two weeks showing up on the ensembles....if anyone has access, go check some of the individual Euro members. 1/4 of the 50 members showing almost 3/4ths of the State of Texas in a blanket of white - with an active southern jet and cross polar flow, isn't out of the realm of possibilities

[Brent]

I just do not see it happening. It may fall as snow, but it will melt quickly - it was in the 70's today. It has been well above freezing for several days.

I have seen it snow several times and accumulate decently(at least 1-2") in the grass and elevated surfaces in Alabama with temps the day before at 60-70 degrees... yeah true it melts later that day but hey this is the south...

Now that said... I have other reasons for skepticism about this storm being snow... if temps were colder when the precip is here I'd be a lot more excited.

[Rgv20]

Really active next two weeks showing up on the ensembles....if anyone has access, go check some of the individual Euro members. 1/4 of the 50 members showing almost 3/4ths of the State of Texas in a blanket of white - with an active southern jet and cross polar flow, isn't out of the realm of possibilities

They sure do! Looks like the fun begin in the 10-15 (First week of February) day time frame. We shall see how this evolves this coming week! Meanwhile had a high of 85 today after a morning low of 45...from light jacket in the morning to shorts in the afternoon lol

[Brent]

The 0z GFS is ummm just a bit wet:



There is a lot of cold air too that hits around the 1st of February or just after... so some of that is snow taken verbatim, especially around Super Bowl Sunday and after, but it's all in fantasy land besides the Thu/Fri storm til then. Next week looks quiet until the weekend.

[gpsnowman]

The KRLD Dallas radio met mentioned possible steady snow by Friday morning. Probably won't amount to much but it was music to my ears. The plot thickens.

[Tammie]

The KRLD Dallas radio met mentioned possible steady snow by Friday morning. Probably won't amount to much but it was music to my ears. The plot thickens.

Hubby listens to him every day. He's actually quite good! Cavanaugh's write up was excellent this morning as well. I may have to pull an all-nighter to try and see a snow flake. Sure wish ground temps were colder for this event.

[Ntxw]

The NAM has lost its mind, dumping 6-8+ inches of snow on the northern counties (Denton, Wise) etc. Would be a back end changeover for most areas north of I-20. Ecmwf/GFS wants none of that. If something like the crazy NAM happened is a forecasters nightmare

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Strong storm system will bring impacts to SE TX over the next 48 hours.

Upper level trough over the SW US will deepen (intensify) and move eastward into the southern plains on Thursday and Friday. A weak surface cold front will cross the region this morning helping to scour out the dense sea fog, but clouds will linger over the region and highs today will be 5-10 degrees colder than yesterday in the low to mid 60’s.

Rapid changes onset this evening as combined deep Pacific moisture tap and Gulf moisture begin to overrun the surface cold dome. Coastal surface trough/low will be forced near the middle TX coast early Thursday as strong height falls overspread TX from the west. Moisture values soar through the roof overnight with values at CRP approaching the climatological maximum for middle January with PWS surging to over 1.50 inches and nearing 1.75 inches. This is nearly summer moisture being worked on by wintertime dynamics…so it is going to rain and rain a lot!

Will onset light rain and showers this evening from west to east across the area with rainfall really ramping up after midnight into early Thursday as the coastal low deepens off the middle coast swinging copious moisture inland. Instability is lacking so not expecting much if any thunder, but widespread waves of light to moderate rainfall with bands of heavy rainfall is likely from after midnight to early afternoon of Thursday.

Rainfall Amounts:
GFS model output is showing a solid 2.0 inches across much of the area and given the “excessive” moisture values that will be in place this is certainly likely. Will go with widespread 1.5-2.5 inches with isolated totals of 3.0 inches. Virtually the entire area will see a good soaking rainfall, but the area along and south of US 59 stand the best shot at heavy rainfall especially Thursday morning. Even though moisture levels will approach maximum values, the lack of sustain deep convection (limited instability) should preclude short term excessive rainfall rates.

Widespread nature of the rainfall combined with already moist soils will generate run-off from this event into area watersheds and rivers. Main threat will be minor street flooding during period of heavy rainfall.

Marine:
Coastal system (low) deepens as it crosses our coastal waters Thursday/Friday. NE winds will stiffen today and then shift to ENE and increase more on Thursday. Sustained winds of 15-25mph will be likely on Thursday and this will increase to 20-30mph Thursday night as the pressure gradient tightens. This is a favorable wind direction for coastal water level rise on the upper TX coast and expect tides to begin to increase Thursday morning and peak Thursday evening before winds shift around to the NW and offshore. Current extra-tropical storm surge guidance based on the GFS model run shows both Galveston and Sabine Pass approaching 2.0 ft of total water level rise Thursday evening with almost a foot being storm surge. These levels are below critical coastal flood elevations, but will put water well up to beaches and into low lying areas. Wave run-up especially on the backside (north) of Galveston Island and the west side of Galveston Bay may result in minor coastal overwash of bulkhead protection. Could see near gale force wind gust Thursday night and Friday morning as the low pressure system moves toward the Louisiana coastal waters. Coastal water levels will rapidly fall Friday morning with strong offshore flow.

Temperatures:
Cold air advection will remain in place throughout this event with the warm sector remain far out over the Gulf waters. Temperatures will remain steady in the 40’s on Thursday and Friday. Cold portion of the main upper trough passes nearly overhead Friday afternoon with at least one model showing critical thickness values being reached for some winter precipitation north of HWY 105. Will disregard this potential at this time due to warm surface temperatures and lack of any other support from other model guidance.

Weekend:
It will be all over and done late Friday with another very nice weekend expected as the storm system departs to the east. Skies will clear Saturday with only some high clouds spilling across the region. Temperatures will range from the 30’s for lows to the 60’s for highs.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The NWS has upped the chance of rain and snow to 100% tonight and 80% chance tomorrow for snow and rain with possible accumulations for my area. They have also raised the low tonight to 34 instead of 33, which was forecasted yesterday. It's going to be interesting to see how it all plays out.

[Ralph's Weather]

The NAM has lost its mind, dumping 6-8+ inches of snow on the northern counties (Denton, Wise) etc. Would be a back end changeover for most areas north of I-20. Ecmwf/GFS wants none of that. If something like the crazy NAM happened is a forecasters nightmare

Always a tough call when most reliable models show nothing, but a couple show a major event. Up there it will likely be near 40 with up to half an inch of rain, but then again it could be 34 with half a foot of snow.

[Portastorm]

Looks like areas from San Angelo west to Midland-Odessa and north to Dumas will see snow in the next 48 hours. The further north you go in that loose pyramid the higher the accumulations. Panhandle could see up to a foot. Winter storm watches and warnings in place.

Ugh ... winter weather.

[Ntxw]

Winter weather in Texas, in January? Can't be a false spring it just can't.

[wxman57]

The NAM is certainly colder than any other model across Texas over the next few days, but it still has surface temps in the Dallas area remaining well above freezing. The reason it's predicting snow is the colder air aloft. The GFS and Euro have a much deeper warm (above freezing) layer at the surface tomorrow and Friday. Given past events and current temps across TX & OK, I suspect the NAM is in error. Cold rain is much more likely than snow.

Oh, boy! Cold rain! The weather doesn't get any better than this! Give me mid 30s and rain any day over temps in the 80s and 90s for biking...

06Z GFS For Dallas-Ft. Worth:


06Z NAM For Dallas-Ft. Worth:


06Z GFS For Houston:

[Tireman4]

The NAM is certainly colder than any other model across Texas over the next few days, but it still has surface temps in the Dallas area remaining well above freezing. The reason it's predicting snow is the colder air aloft. The GFS and Euro have a much deeper warm (above freezing) layer at the surface tomorrow and Friday. Given past events and current temps across TX & OK, I suspect the NAM is in error. Cold rain is much more likely than snow.

Oh, boy! Cold rain! The weather doesn't get any better than this! Give me mid 30s and rain any day over temps in the 80s and 90s for biking...

Sigh. The whole world is turned upside down. How many miles do you have this week Wxman57. I have 60 as of this morning.

[wxman57]

Sigh. The whole world is turned upside down. How many miles do you have this week Wxman57. I have 60 as of this morning.

We rode 70 miles this past weekend (35 each day) - from SW Houston through downtown and along Buffalo Bayou. Once we go back to daylight savings time I can start biking during the week.

Typical Route to Buffalo Bayou:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ride2.gif

Longer Route I do Solo:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ride.gif

Weather is looking a bit hot for biking this weekend, though. Temps way up into the 50s by afternoon on Saturday and maybe 65 on Sunday. Sizzling!

[gboudx]

Looks like areas from San Angelo west to Midland-Odessa and north to Dumas will see snow in the next 48 hours. The further north you go in that loose pyramid the higher the accumulations. Panhandle could see up to a foot. Winter storm watches and warnings in place.

Ugh ... winter weather.

[TheProfessor]

Just watched FWD's weather briefing video and they are going with the warmer models right now, but if the colder models win someone could see a huge surprise. I couldn't tell which model they were looking at, possibly the NAM, but it had an average of 8 inches of snow between DFW and Wichita Falls with some ensembles showing 0 and 22 inches for that area and everything in between. I would like to see snow fall, but I'd rather the warmer models win, I don't want anything messing up my travel to San Antonio on Friday.