Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

Anybody see the 12Z GFS from about 228 to 288 hours out (February 1-2)? It paints a mixed-bag picture of precipitation from rain to snow in west Texas and the panhandle, to more rain (maybe storms) across the majority of the rest of the state.

Granted it's a ways off in Winter Wonderland prediction, but definitely something to eyeball and talk about.

Yep, I saw it and it will be our next big topic after Friday morning. It could get real interesting around that time as with the set-up it showing I do not think it is cold enough, but of course that far out things will change a lot.

[Brent]

Man if the air was just a little colder...

The super bowl storm looks interesting and its been consistent but its too far out to get too excited

One thing I am thinking is early February could be huge very cold and very stormy. What's not to like?

[wxman57]

AO falling off a cliff....check out the blocking over the Pole late next week by both the Euro and GFS. Both models build 1060 plus HP's in Northern Canada (some 6 Standard Deviations above normal). This winter is far from over!!

This does not bode well for Heat Mongerers...

Yeah, Portastorm! You're not going to love that! I'm looking forward to single digits here in Houston.

[orangeblood]

18Z NAM looks warmer for tomorrow afternoon than previous runs with freezing level above 850mb. Looking at it tomorrow morning will need to be watched for areas north of I-30 as the band of heavy precip moves through.

Not sure what you're looking at but actually looks colder, NAM/WRF is now coming around towards its big brother showing 4-10 inches from Fort Worth to Wichita Falls

[Portastorm]

AO falling off a cliff....check out the blocking over the Pole late next week by both the Euro and GFS. Both models build 1060 plus HP's in Northern Canada (some 6 Standard Deviations above normal). This winter is far from over!!

This does not bode well for Heat Mongerers...

Yeah, Portastorm! You're not going to love that! I'm looking forward to single digits here in Houston.

I already miss my sunshine and mid 70s weather.

[wxman57]

Shoot! EC has the center of cold at 240 hrs. over James Bay vs. coming down the Plains! The flow pattern just isn't looking right to give me the bitterly-cold Arctic air I crave. Still normal 850mb temps over TX for the most part as of Jan. 31. At least SOME cold is coming down the Plains.

[Brent]

I'd give serious money for the Nam to be right lol

[orangeblood]

Shoot! EC has the center of cold at 240 hrs. over James Bay vs. coming down the Plains! The flow pattern just isn't looking right to give me the bitterly-cold Arctic air I crave. Still normal 850mb temps over TX for the most part as of Jan. 31. At least SOME cold is coming down the Plains.

Well unless you expect the Polar Vortex in your backyard, that's the type of setup that could deliver the "bitterly-cold" air you crave...the HP's are coming around the backside of the PV, sitting over the Great lakes, straight down into the Plains

[Tireman4]

Oh man. Why is this happening this Winter? Why the flip flops? Wacky, screwed up, dadgum..I need some Coca Cola...stat....One is one way, the other is the other way. Flip Flop. Might need to get Species 8472 to help with the Borg...aeiighh...



https://video.search.yahoo.com/video/pl ... mp=yhs-001

[hriverajr]

This sarcasm from both sides is over the top..lol

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z NAM looks warmer for tomorrow afternoon than previous runs with freezing level above 850mb. Looking at it tomorrow morning will need to be watched for areas north of I-30 as the band of heavy precip moves through.

Not sure what you're looking at but actually looks colder, NAM/WRF is now coming around towards its big brother showing 4-10 inches from Fort Worth to Wichita Falls

Seemed warmer at least in E TX where it out developing a warm nose over the heaviest precip. If that does not happen we could see a lot of surprise snow all over north of I-20.

[wxman57]

Shoot! EC has the center of cold at 240 hrs. over James Bay vs. coming down the Plains! The flow pattern just isn't looking right to give me the bitterly-cold Arctic air I crave. Still normal 850mb temps over TX for the most part as of Jan. 31. At least SOME cold is coming down the Plains.

Well unless you expect the Polar Vortex in your backyard, that's the type of setup that could deliver the "bitterly-cold" air you crave...the HP's are coming around the backside of the PV, sitting over the Great lakes, straight down into the Plains

What I see is missing is the flow pattern. Look at the 500mb pattern at 240hrs (EC). The flow comes into British Columbia and then heads ESE through the Great Lakes. There isn't any significant cross-Polar flow to get temps in western Canada extremely cold. Of course, it's possible that cross-Polar flow will set up the first week of February. Will have to wait and see. I can't stand these high temps in the 50s! Just too hot.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think the Ensembles are pointing to something more in the 11-16 day region. We have to be patient!

[orangeblood]

18Z NAM looks warmer for tomorrow afternoon than previous runs with freezing level above 850mb. Looking at it tomorrow morning will need to be watched for areas north of I-30 as the band of heavy precip moves through.

Not sure what you're looking at but actually looks colder, NAM/WRF is now coming around towards its big brother showing 4-10 inches from Fort Worth to Wichita Falls

Seemed warmer at least in E TX where it out developing a warm nose over the heaviest precip. If that does not happen we could see a lot of surprise snow all over north of I-20.

Yeah, the coastal low is bringing in a little warmer air into East Texas on the 18Z NAM but is fairly miniscule though...hopefully tonights 00Z runs will paint a clearer picture

[Ralph's Weather]

Yeah, the coastal low is bringing in a little warmer air into East Texas on the 18Z NAM but is fairly miniscule though...hopefully tonights 00Z runs will paint a clearer picture

Hope so, though like so many potential winter events around here conditions are so borderline that they fall within a reasonable margin for error in the model output. If the column is 2C cooler than forecast we could have a huge snowstorm north of I-20 and if it is 2C warmer then we will be lucky to see a flake anywhere east of WF. All we need for a big event is for the 500mb low to be a tad deeper than currently expected by most models.

[Brent]

Yeah, the coastal low is bringing in a little warmer air into East Texas on the 18Z NAM but is fairly miniscule though...hopefully tonights 00Z runs will paint a clearer picture

Hope so, though like so many potential winter events around here conditions are so borderline that they fall within a reasonable margin for error in the model output. If the column is 2C cooler than forecast we could have a huge snowstorm north of I-20 and if it is 2C warmer then we will be lucky to see a flake anywhere east of WF. All we need for a big event is for the 500mb low to be a tad deeper than currently expected by most models.

That's happened a lot before is the reason I ain't giving up nothing :p

[Brent]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-156-157-159-220500-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-MCLENNAN-
310 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

...RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
IN AN AREA NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CISCO TO WEATHERFORD TO
DENTON TO DENISON...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH THE RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A CHANGEOVER TO ALL
SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT SOME TIME. SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MOST OF
THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MELT AS IT FALLS TO THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES OR EXPOSED METAL SURFACES SUCH AS CARS. AT THIS
TIME...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SLUSH COULD OCCUR ON LESS TRAVELED
ROADS BUT ICY ROAD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WITH MOST OF THE
SNOW MELTING...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO THE SNOW ARE NOT
EXPECTED AND NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SOME DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ANY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY...BUT
SOME SNOW FLAKES OR LIGHT SNOW COULD MIX IN DURING THE DAY. NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE
RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO ATHENS.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN MOSTLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT MAY
REACH FREEZING IN AREAS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX.
WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING...SOME VERY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT OTHERWISE
NO ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. NO IMPACTS OR TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

[amawea]

Portastorm and Weatherman57 are cracking me up. They both must have taken drama in high school.

[Tireman4]

This sarcasm from both sides is over the top..lol

This is like Sadie Hawkins for meteorology...LOL

[Kelarie]

Portastorm and Weatherman57 are cracking me up. They both must have taken drama in high school.

Well this is the best entertainment I have seen in awhile. This seriously should be a sitcom. I would watch.