Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[hurricanehunter69]

GFS 6Z 228 hours http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false 264 hours on the 12Z http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[SeGaBob]

Well, the Weather Channel took that snow out of the 10 day forecast. GFS isn't supporting it anymore either.

Not that I'm surprised or anything... but all of a sudden there is no model support for any type of cold now.

I'm really disappointed.

[SeGaBob]

The 12Z EURO is back on board with the cold...

[BigB0882]

Any snow, though?

[SeGaBob]

According to the 18Z GFS no chance through 384 hours. (Well for you there is a small line of snow at 210 hours) As for the Euro I have no idea... I can't see that much on tropical tidbits.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well think its about to give up and call it quits on this winter. Going back and including el nino, hurricane season, and winter, 2014 has to go down as one of the biggest busts in recent memory. Now if you count the day 10-14 winter storms we have had this winter then you are talking historic on a whole other level

I'm ready to move on and for march to hurry and get here so can start tracking severe storms then begin the countdown to hurricane season.

[BigB0882]

This winter was still more exciting than hurricane season. We didn't even have a storm to track this past season, at least we had a few hopes and prayers for something this winter. lol

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This winter was still more exciting than hurricane season. We didn't even have a storm to track this past season, at least we had a few hopes and prayers for something this winter. lol

Well you got me on that

[hurricanehunter69]

Man, (like a jackass, I went around work proclaiming this year to be the winter of all winters.....? ) I'll never make a long range forecast again!!! Guess I'm ready to throw in the towell too! However, just like the weather has consistently changed against us....maybe we can get lucky and squeeze out one event that changes in our favor...? Atleast the 6Z brings back some cold...? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model

[BigB0882]

Winter is officially over. I saw geese flying north, they were all wearing Sombreros and reeked of tequila.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Winter is officially over. I saw geese flying north, they were all wearing Sombreros and reeked of tequila.

Its done. All the long range stuff that I have seen has 60's and 70's popping up by mid February.

[MGC]

Still got another month to go before I throw in the towel. Coldest ever down here was in Feb 1899 so still have the chance to see some flakes......MGC

[SeGaBob]

I halfway thought about digging up the spring thread I made last year.

I'll probably just wait until the middle of February.

[northjaxpro]

I agree with MGC. Come on folks. Granted, it does not look promising now, but we still have just over a month still left in meteorological winter. Don't forget Mother Nature can still throw us some curve balls. We have had numerous snow events across the Deep South region in February, and into March, even here across North Florida. The single greatest weather event I rank in my lifetime was just discussed on the previous page of this thread, happened in the middle of March.

So. Be careful for what you wish. You never know what Mother Nature can bring us. Still ample time left for some of you to see the white stuff. I have already experienced seeing a light snow event this season here, so if it happened here, I would hope a set-up will come to have some more folks in the Deep South have a bit of wintry fun.

[Hammy]

I don't see anything in the models, but does anyone care to speculate on the chances of Athens-Winder area getting snow before winter's over?

[hurricanehunter69]

Maybe we can get lucky? Maybe this system can change in our favor....? 180 hours out http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[hurricanehunter69]

Damn, ya know the Texas thread is blowin up! They should be so lucky......It would either disappear or slide over to the right.... If that was showing over us. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[SeGaBob]

Everyone should take a minute to look at this...

(12Z GFS Total Snowfall at 240 hours)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015012812&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=440.00001165601975


I still think this another 10 day snow that we don't get, but maybe it's something to be hopeful about.

[timmeister]

Wow. Shows snow in Hattiesburg, Mobile and Pensacola. Let's see if there is any consistency in the next 2 or 3 runs.

It's more than 72 hours out, so I'll believe it when I see it. But like you said, we can always hope.

[asd123]

There appears to be growing model consistency of major cold and possible snow for Florida next weekend into early the following week. Teleconnections appear to be unfavorable, but who knows, the forecast for teleconnections haven't been all that accurate lately. ECMWF is not on board though, but this model's long range has not been good at picking up trends. GEM has been bitterly cold, but no snow. GEM model has not been good at all in my opinion, so I'll look at it for entertainment purposes.

The GFS in my opinion did better in the long and shorter range; only time will tell what will really happen. Who knows, this cold event might just come into fruition and save our winter!

Below I've posted some highlights of this cold forecast:

All images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:

Southeast snow GFS: (has been appearing on several GFS runs now)



GFS 2/8/15


GFS 2/9/15


GEM 2/7/15