My Tuesday morning forecast: weaker but a lot of potential

[JetMaxx]

Hurricane Isabel has weakened slightly....but remains a potentially very dangerous hurricane. I advise all coastal residents between Myrtle Beach, SC and Long Island, NY to closely moniter the latest on this large hurricane, and be ready to evacuate ASAP if ordered by local EMA officials...

CURRENTLY:
TUE SEP 16
6 AM EST...26.7N - 70.5W...100 KTS
--------------------------------------

FORECAST:
TUE SEP 16
5 PM EST...28.0N - 70.8W....95 KTS


WED SEP 17
5 AM EST...29.6N - 71.8W....95 KTS

5 PM EST...31.6N - 72.8W...100 KTS


THU SEP 18
5 AM EST...33.5N - 74.4W...110 KTS

11 AM EST..35.0N - 76.0W...115 KTS (LANDFALL near Ocracoke, NC)

5 PM EST...36.5N - 77.0W...100 KTS (Inland near Ahoskie, NC)


FRI SEP 19
5 AM EST...39.0N - 78.5W....55 KTS (near Winchester, VA)

5 PM EST...44.0N - 80.0W....45 KTS
(near Toronto, Canada)


SAT SEP 20
5 AM EST...50.0N - 78.0W....EXTRATROPICAL

[Colin]

Man...that thing is roaring! :o I just can't see how much more rain I'll get than 1-2"...it's just about impossible!

[Martinsville Weather]

It really just depends on the track Colin, if it makes landfall further north/east then it will move closer to you and you'll get the heavier rain (closer to 4-5") but if it makes landfall further south/west then you'll probably only get about 2".

[VA_Red]

I know that the Gulf Stream tends to enhance storms as they pass through it, but I don't think that will be the case with Isabel this year and I'll tell ya why.

In early August, I went on a deep sea fishing trip off of Ocracoke. The boat captains in the area were talking about how unusual the fishing was off the coast this year. The SSTs were down, meaning they were catching fish in August that they typically caught much later in the year. Not a real good year for any of them.

I've heard theories that the abundance of rainfall in the east this year may have influenced the SSTs with all of the runoff draining into the Atlantic. That being the case, I wouldn't expect Isabel to pull a great deal of energy from the water temps.

I'd guess that Isabel will be a strong Cat-2 or minimal Cat-3 upon landfall.

[wayoutfront]

http://wrel.com/hurr_sst.htm

I dunno, thats an awful lot of red left between Lizzy an shore,
doesn't appear to be cooler

[summerwx]

Isabel was only a category 1 with 80 mph winds at landfall and hit Drum Inlet, and it's a long way from Ocracoke, over 200 miles.

[JetMaxx]

Isabel was only a category 1 with 80 mph winds at landfall and hit Drum Inlet, and it's a long way from Ocracoke, over 200 miles.

200 miles? In your dreams son....Ocracoke was in the eye, less than 10 miles from the center of the eye. I'm not boasting, but you can't do much better than that.

As for the intensity, it was a 90 kt cat-2 at landfall (per AOML/ HRD)....not a cat-1. Was my intensity forecast too high? In retrospect, yes it was; but I'd much rather warn for a cat 3/4 and only see a cat-2 verify than warn coastal residents of a cat-2 and a cat-4 monster arrive unexpectedly....that my clueless friend is what will get people killed.

[Stormsfury]

Isabel was only a category 1 with 80 mph winds at landfall and hit Drum Inlet, and it's a long way from Ocracoke, over 200 miles.

100% Wrong ... Drum Inlet is only 10 miles from Ocracoke. Second, Isabel made landfall with 100 mph sustained winds.

The Ocracoke area reported that the winds pegged at 105 mph (since that was the highest the anenometer would read) ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... HXwind.gif

This is from MOREHEAD CITY (MHX), NC WFO ... if you think it was NOT a CAT 2, email MHX WFO and leave JetMaxx alone.

PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT...HURRICANE ISABEL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2003


HURRICANE ISABEL MADE LANDFALL DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON OF
SEPTEMBER 18, 2003 BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND OCRACOKE INLET NEAR
CEDAR ISLAND. ISABEL MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 MPH. HURRICANE ISABEL MOVED
NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST PRESSURES ARE INDICATED
FOR THIS DATE. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES AND ACTUAL STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM 9/17 THROUGH 9/18.


A. HIGHEST WINDS


LOCATION. TWO MINUTE SPEED(MPH). PEAK GUST. TIME(EDT)


FRYING PAN FPSN7 69 85 1449 (09/18/03)
CAPE LOOKOUT CLKN7 56 87 1223 (09/18/03)
DUCK DUCN7 69 92 1626 (09/18/03)
CHERRY POINT NKT 33 71 1418 (09/18/03)
MANTEO MQI 51 78 1443 (09/18/03)
NEW BERN EWN 37 58 1608 (09/18/03)
GREENVILLE PGV 39 51 1455 (09/18/03)
NEW RIVER MCAS NCA 45 64 1156 (09/18/03)
WASHINGTON OCW 43 56 1403 (09/18/03)
NEWPORT MHX XX 53 1400 (09/18/03)


OTHER MEASURED PEAK GUST REPORTS(MPH). TIME(EDT)


OCRACOKE 105 1145 (09/18/03)
HARKERS ISLAND BRIDGE 98 1030 (09/18/03)
CAPE HATTERAS PIER 96 1146 (09/18/03)
PLYMOUTH 95 1405 (09/18/03)
CEDAR ISLAND 86 1040 (09/18/03)
TRENTON 80 1512 (09/18/03)

B. LOWEST PRESSURE...


LOCATION. ID. PRESSURE(INCHES). TIME(EDT)


DUCK DUCN7 29.07 1500 (09/18/03)
FRYING PAN FPSN7 29.33 1300 (09/18/03)
CAPE LOOKOUT CLKN7 28.49 1200 (09/18/03)
WASHINGTON OCW 28.45 1544 (09/18/03)
CHERRY POINT NKT 28.59 1440 (09/18/03)
NEWPORT MHX 28.61 1330 (09/18/03)
NEW RIVER NCA 28.99 1356 (09/18/03)
MANTEO MQI 29.01 1343 (09/18/03)

C. RAINFALL...


LOCATION. ID. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL(INCHES)

PERRYTOWN 6.23
HAVELOCK 6.05
NEWPORT MHX 5.87
GREENVILLE PGVN7 5.75
CHERRY POINT NKT 5.24
WILLIAMSTON 3.45
KINSTON 3.02
JACKSONVILLE 2.42
NEW RIVER 2.02
DUCK COE PIER 4.72

D. STORM TIDES

THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES OCCURRED ACROSS THE LOWER REACHES
OF THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS WHERE WATERS LEVELS ROSE
FROM 6 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. CLUBFOOT CREEK ON THE LOWER
NEUSE ROSE TO 9.5 FEET, 1.5 FEET HIGHER THAN DURING HURRICANE
DENNIS IN 1999. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN THE HARLOWE
AREA IN CRAVEN COUNTY, AND IN THE TOWN OF ORIENTAL IN EASTERN
PAMLICO COUNTY. WATER LEVELS ROSE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FEET ON THE
PAMLICO RIVER WITH FLOODING IN THE CITY OF WASHINGTON. STORM
TIDES OF 6 TO 8 FEET OCCURRED ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WITH MAJOR
OCEAN OVERWASH. FLOODING ON OCRACOKE WAS SIGNIFICANT WITH WAIST
HIGH WATER IN MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

E. BEACH EROSION

MAJOR OCEAN OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION DUE TO STORM SURGE AND
BATTERING WAVE ACTION OCCURRED ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. PIERS WERE DESTROYED IN RODANTHE ...AVALON ...AND
FRISCO. MOTELS IN HATTERAS VILLAGE WERE MOVED OFF THEIR FOUNDATIONS
AS WELL AS SOME HOMES. A 500 WIDE INLET WAS CARVED BETWEEN FRISCO
AND HATTERAS VILLAGE ALONG HIGHWAY 12. IN ADDITION...MANY SECTIONS
OF HIGHWAY 12 WERE REPORTED TO HAVE BEEN WASHED OUT OR COVERED WITH
DEBRIS SOUTHWARD TO OCRACOKE. FIFTEEN FOOT STRETCHES OF PAVEMENT ON
BOTH SIDES OF A BRIDGE NEAR OCRACOKE WERE WASHED AWAY. ALSO...A
BEACH ACCESS RAMP WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED.

F. FLOODING AND/OR FLASH FLOODING

OUTER RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE ISABEL BEGAN AFFECTING EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT OF SEPTEMBER 17TH. HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SEPTEMBER 18TH AS THE STORM MOVED
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. DOPPLER RADAR STORM TOTAL ESTIMATES
INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 4 TO 7 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURRED IN CRAVEN...CARTERET...PAMLICO...HYDE...
WASHINGTON...AND PITT COUNTIES. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR
FOUR OF THESE COUNTIES ON SEPTEMBER 18TH WITH FLOODING OF STREETS
AND LOW LYING AREAS REPORTED.

G. TORNADOES

NO TORNADOES WERE REPORTED IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

H. PRELIMINARY STORM EFFECTS

STORM SURGE AND WIND CAUSED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER BANKS. ASSESSMENTS
ARE ON GOING...CONSEQUENTLY...ONLY GENERAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE
AT THIS TIME. NO DIRECT STORM RELATED FATALITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ONE PERSON WAS KILLED TRYING TO RESTORE
ELECTRICITY IN CARTERET COUNTY. STORM SURGE AND BEACH EROSION
EFFECTS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT IN OUTER BANKS DARE AND HYDE COUNTIES.
WIND AND WATER DAMAGE WAS EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH. THREE PIERS WERE DESTROYED. A LARGE 500
FOOT CUT OCCURRED ACROSS HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN FRISCO AND HATTERAS
VILLAGE. APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 40 HOMES ON THE OUTER BANKS HAVE BEEN
KNOCKED OFF THEIR PILINGS. SIGNIFICANT WATER LEVEL RISES ON THE
NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS HAVE RESULTED IN FLOODING OF MANY HOMES
ACROSS CRAVEN...EASTERN CARTERET...AND EASTERN PAMLICO COUNTIES.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE RESULTED IN NUMEROUS TRESS AND
POWER LINES DOWN WITH LOSS OF ELECTRICITY TO HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS
OF PEOPLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

COLE

[GalvestonDuck]

My gosh, is this going on everywhere?

It seems to me "near Ocracoke" means just that. And that's where Isabel hit - near, at, around, and through Ocracoke.

If someone warned us that a hurricane (major or not) was going to hit "near Galveston" and it made landfall in Port Bolivar, I'd darn well be thankful that they made that call and we got out. Bolivar is a 15-minute ferry ride from the east end of Galveston Island. But I guarantee, a landfall there would mean a hit for us also.

Now if they said Brownsville and it hit here, then you could say that person was wrong.

But then again, aren't we all in agreement that you should really only listen to your local emergency management officials and the NHC for official information? All else is opinion and subject to error (sometimes).