Texas Winter 2014-2015

[wxman57]

The Texas thermostat is firmly in my control for the next few days!

The bad news (for me) is that the 12z Euro indicates some sub-zero air moving south into Montana in 10 days. I'll have to work on diverting it to the east...

[Brent]

The Texas thermostat is firmly in my control for the next few days!

The bad news (for me) is that the 12z Euro indicates some sub-zero air moving south into Montana in 10 days. I'll have to work on diverting it to the east...

Wake me when it's under 5 days away.

[perk]

The Texas thermostat is firmly in my control for the next few days!

The bad news (for me) is that the 12z Euro indicates some sub-zero air moving south into Montana in 10 days. I'll have to work on diverting it to the east...

You've been successful so far.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The Texas thermostat is firmly in my control for the next few days!

The bad news (for me) is that the 12z Euro indicates some sub-zero air moving south into Montana in 10 days. I'll have to work on diverting it to the east...

Wake me when it's under 5 days away.

I wont be greedy. I would be happy just seeing anything under 7 days

[somethingfunny]

We can't even buy a flake while the NE can get 3 feet. It's depressing

We can have sunshine and 70s any other time of year

Except summer. We can never have 70s in summertime, certainly not with sunshine. And that makes up about half our year so chill out and enjoy all of this. Summer is coming...

And the northeast is having a big bust on their hands now too.

[Brent]

We just all need to move to Amarillo clearly LOL

[wxman57]

More snow for the TX Panhandle this weekend, none for most of us here. In the long range, the Euro is now showing much above normal temps in western Canada at day 10 (850mb). Core of cold air is over east-central Canada, a location which threatens the Great Lakes & Northeast U.S. Nothing to indicate a pattern change that will bring northeast Texas or the Hill Country more than a light freeze.

[Portastorm]

Taking a line from one of my all-time favorite movies - Stripes - "... and then depression set in."

[orangeblood]

More snow for the TX Panhandle this weekend, none for most of us here. In the long range, the Euro is now showing much above normal temps in western Canada at day 10 (850mb). Core of cold air is over east-central Canada, a location which threatens the Great Lakes & Northeast U.S. Nothing to indicate a pattern change that will bring northeast Texas or the Hill Country more than a light freeze.

I will counter your Euro with the latest GFS for around the same time period...20-25 Deg F below normal will likely lead to more than just a "light" freeze. All indications are pointing towards the next two weeks being below normal, the question still remains is how extreme can it get - the latest GFS is nothing to scoff at !!

[Tireman4]

Did not the Euro bomb on the NE storm? I could be wrong, but did not the GFS have is progged right?

[Tireman4]

Taking a line from one of my all-time favorite movies - Stripes - "... and then depression set in."

[orangeblood]

Did not the Euro bomb on the NE storm? I could be wrong, but did not the GFS have is progged right?

Yes, the Euro got destroyed by the new and improved GFS with the Northeaster and is not handling this pattern very well at this time

[wxman57]

I like the long-range pattern in the GFS. After a cold start to February (maybe a freeze here in Houston the first week of the month), things heat up over Canada and the Plains.



Of course, that first week of February may be a little cold down here:


On the other hand, the meteogram from that same GFS only shows mid to upper 30s for lows:

[Ntxw]

That big SOI crash we had should be felt soon given the usual lag. ENS have not been that reliable, like the OP run to run have had different placements of heights. It will/currently is frigid in Canada, and even colder in NW Canada/Alaska... will it move due south?

[wxman57]

You can look at the 2m temperature anomaly animation below and see that the current cold air in far NW Canada isn't progged to move south to Texas. There's one surge of cold air that moves south to Texas around the 5th-7th of February. Looks like a cold couple of days around the 7th-8th then a warm-up. I still see no indications of anything "big" across Texas in the next couple of weeks.

You know, I joke around a lot here about loving it HOT, which I do, but I like to see snow as much as any of you. That's the only good reason for winter, as far as I'm concerned. I'm not seeing it, though, with the current or predicted pattern.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012706/gfs_T2ma_namer.html

[Ntxw]

No argument there about the pattern on the current models not ideal as we may want. But you have to admit the source region of cold is vast. We're not talking about a fleeting dome of cold sitting up there. Run to run cold vs less cold model runs have not been consistent. One mode suite will have ridging is in the central conus, next run its in the Ne Pacific, and the next in NW Canada. That is thousands of miles off.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: No argument there about the pattern on the current models not ideal as we may want. But you have to admit the source region of cold is vast. We're not talking about a fleeting dome of cold sitting up there. Run to run cold vs less cold model runs have not been consistent. One mode suite will have ridging is in the central conus, next run its in the Ne Pacific, and the next in NW Canada. That is thousands of miles off.

Looks, to me, that the cold in Canada is, and has been, centered too far to the east. I don't see much change in that over the coming weeks. The upper air pattern just isn't right to build a lot of cold in western Canada or to bring that cold air down to Texas. And in order to get any snow in NE TX (or down here) we need more prolonged cold (and colder air in the source region).

[dhweather]

Something we can all be HAPPY about, if it happens, Lucy Van Pelt is smirking somewhere right now.

From the 12Z GFS


a good 2-3" of LIQUID GOLD in the I-35 corridor, from the Red River down to San Antonio, locally higher.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is in. Meteogram for Houston indicates below-normal temps for us the first into the second week of February. Lows a little below normal, highs a lot below normal. Normal low the first 2 weeks of February is 43, normal high is 63. I'm not seeing much good biking weather (on weekends) through February 8th, at least. Just cold, not much precip.

[weatherdude1108]

Something we can all be HAPPY about, if it happens, Lucy Van Pelt is smirking somewhere right now.

From the 12Z GFS


a good 2-3" of LIQUID GOLD in the I-35 corridor, from the Red River down to San Antonio, locally higher.

LOVE!
Timing consistency of rainmaking systems is the key to making a difference in the hydrology/lake/aquifer levels.