Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ntxw]

This war ain't over until the last breath of winter is felt, as I said yesterday lots of cold air up in NW Canada. February is always on our side!

[Ralph's Weather]

This war ain't over until the last breath of winter is felt, as I said yesterday lots of cold air up in NW Canada. February is always on our side!

Agreed, we have a couple more months at least. Last year the coldest temperatures and most winter precip in my area came in early March. And on April 7, 2007 we got snow at my house. It was the day before Easter and we were celebrating early and about to do the egg hunt outside for the kids when it began to snow.

[TheProfessor]

So no mentioning of the 0z CMC which showed snow for North Texas next Thursday, which was also seen on the 6z GFS for about the same time period? Wxman has owned this week. But Next week will be ours!

[Tireman4]

I didn't realize that the temperature hit 81 degrees in Houston yesterday. Now THAT'S winter weather! If it gets any warmer I might be able to take off my coat. Looks like a big snow storm for Pennsylvania next Monday (Groundhog Day). No shadow for him means winter is over! Maybe we should start a winter 2015-2016 thread talking about possible snow in Texas NEXT winter?

Ughh. Just ughh...

[Texas Snowman]

You know, I think underneath that smoldering exterior of lava rock exoskeleton material that he wears around, Lord Heat Vader is really a nice guy.

Maybe even a softy at heart.

Like a kid enjoying a fresh snowfall with a blanket of white and a sled in his hand. A kid who loves drinking hot cocoa - with marshmallows - next to a warm fire's glow. A kid who's favorite Christmas holiday song is "I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas" as he croons along with old Bing Crosby.

Wait a minute, what am I thinking?!? This is Heat Miser we're talking about.

Ok, scratch all of that above. Nope, nada. The rebellion grows as the PWC rebels march on the Heat Star and its No Winter Storm Troopers.

[Tireman4]

From Larry Cosgrove on Facebook....

12z GFS look at February 1 - 2 storm is weaker, more south, and colder...

[Portastorm]

From Larry Cosgrove on Facebook....

12z GFS look at February 1 - 2 storm is weaker, more south, and colder...

Not for Texas ... the 12z GFS is actually warmer in our state than the 0z run.

[Tireman4]

From Larry Cosgrove on Facebook....

12z GFS look at February 1 - 2 storm is weaker, more south, and colder...

Not for Texas ... the 12z GFS is actually warmer in our state than the 0z run.

Which is usually the bad run on the GFS, 18 or 0?

[Portastorm]

The latest skill scores for the month of January indicate that with the GFS, the quality of forecast erodes in sequence after the 0z runs. It is ranked like this:

1) 0z run
2) 6z run
3) 12z run
4) 18z run

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

The latest skill scores for the month of January indicate that with the GFS, the quality of forecast erodes in sequence after the 0z runs. It is ranked like this:

1) 0z run
2) 6z run
3) 12z run
4) 18z run

Thanks for that Porta. It helps everyday Joe and Josephine how to rate the runs of the GFS.

[Ntxw]

Balmy mid -50s along the Alaskan/Yukon border. Quite warm up there for my liking.

[orangeblood]

From Larry Cosgrove on Facebook....

12z GFS look at February 1 - 2 storm is weaker, more south, and colder...

But the Feb 5-6th storm is stronger, further south and colder

As Ntxw has mentioned, there is going to be a ton of Arctic Air around this pattern the next two weeks, just need the upper level energy to align right and we're in business

10 day GFS Snow Forecast...look at that Glacier

[wxman57]

Which is usually the bad run on the GFS, 18 or 0?

The run that shows warmer weather with no snow for Texas?

[Tireman4]

Which is usually the bad run on the GFS, 18 or 0?

The run that shows warmer weather with no snow for Texas?

Hardy Hardy Har har...LOL

[Texas Snowman]

Which is usually the bad run on the GFS, 18 or 0?

The run that shows warmer weather with no snow for Texas?

Actually Heat Miser, I think the bad runs are the ones that you trumpet while conveniently forgetting the ones that play into the hands of the cold rebellion.

[Texas Snowman]

We're all a bit guilty me thinks of gravitating to the runs we like.

But as Ntxw has pointed out in completely unbiased fashion - - there is a lot of "balmy" weather up north just itching to come south and disrupt a February of Texas bicycle riding.

[Ralph's Weather]

From Larry Cosgrove on Facebook....

12z GFS look at February 1 - 2 storm is weaker, more south, and colder...

But the Feb 5-6th storm is stronger, further south and colder

As Ntxw has mentioned, there is going to be a ton of Arctic Air around this pattern the next two weeks, just need the upper level energy to align right and we're in business

10 day GFS Snow Forecast...look at that Glacier

I like the overall pattern that the GFS is showing (Euro is pretty similar) though ideally I would like it to shift a bit further west so we would have a better shot a moisture though if like the 12Z GFS shows we can manage a short wave soon after the Arctic push we will have enough cold for plenty of winter weather around the state. It reminds me of last year where we were dominated by NW flow whereas this year we have been dominated by SW flow. Either way the cold shots look to be progressive with an overall neutral NAO and a negative EPO.

[dhweather]

Hi boys and girls, don't you love these models?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: We're all a bit guilty me thinks of gravitating to the runs we like.

But as Ntxw has pointed out in completely unbiased fashion - - there is a lot of "balmy" weather up north just itching to come south and disrupt a February of Texas bicycle riding.

Rather expansive too from Alaska to the NW territories. Most of the northern 2/3rds of Canada. The heat miser likes to point out warming up there, but that usually means (given how cold it is now) it has been dislodged! But where will it go?!

[Brent]

Ah another 8-9 day snowstorm... I'm a little optimistic given the pattern coming but still will it get within 5 days out like that?