SIO: EUNICE - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

98S INVEST 150125 0000 15.2S 72.5E SHEM 15 NA


GFS in 3 days time, 98S on left and 97S on right.

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 902
WTIO30 FMEE 270651
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/8/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8
2.A POSITION 2015/01/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 62.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/27 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/01/28 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/01/28 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/29 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/01/29 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/01/30 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/31 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/02/01 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE EASTERLY CONSTRAINT, SO DEEP CONVE
CTION HAS ORGANIZE NEAR THE CENTRE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-WESTWARDS SLOWING DOWN PROGRESSIVELY TODAYS ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS OF MIDDLE LEVELS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED INTENSIFY PROGRESSIVELY ON WEDNESDAY, AS A POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS BUILD
ING. THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH A SECOND BUILDING OUTFLOW EASTWARD
S.
ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY, A BUILDING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, IN LINE WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE HI
GH THEN A TRANSIENT TROUGH IN THE SOUTH, INDUCE A SOUTH SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK SLOW IN A FIRST TIME
, THEN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTH-EASTWARDS MORE RAPIDLY, AS THE RIDGE POSITION NORTH-EAST.
UP TO SUNDAY, THE RIDGE REBUILD MORE NORTH NORTH-WEST, SO THE TRACK BECOME MORE EASTWARDS FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
NNNN



98S INVEST 150127 0600 13.5S 62.7E SHEM 30 1000

[euro6208]

98S INVEST 150127 1200 12.9S 63.0E SHEM 30 1000

[euro6208]

09S EUNICE 150128 0000 13.2S 63.9E SHEM 50 985

[euro6208]

REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 64.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AFTER IT COMPLETED A
CLOCKWISE LOOPING MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE
IS NOW TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION
TO WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), WILL PROMOTE
STEADY INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 36, TC EUNICE MAY UNDERGO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AS THE INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES,
THAT ARE ALSO IN-PHASE WITH THE PROJECTED STORM MOTION, FURTHER
ENHANCES POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER, INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
08S (DIAMONDRA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 360
WTIO30 FMEE 280724
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/8/20142015
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (EUNICE)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 64.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 440 SE: 250 SW: 200 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 60 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/28 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/29 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/29 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/30 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/01/30 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/01/31 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 72.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/01 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/02/02 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.5+
EUNICE HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME EVIDENT SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AND A RAGGED EYE IS NOW APPAREN
T ON THE VERY LAST IMAGES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON GEOSTAT IMAGERY WITH A RATHER WELL DEF
INED CENTER. THE COMPLETE ASCAT PASS OF THIS MORNING WAS ALSO USED TO CALIBRATE THE WINDS RADII. T
HE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS ON THE UPPER SIDE OF THE AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES (50-57 KT 1
0 MIN WINDS) IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SATCON OF 0256Z AT 53 KT (10 MIN WINDS).
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK E
AST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE AND MORE CONDUCTIVE FOR I
NTENSIFICATION.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, UNDER THE RIDGE, THE WVS SHOULD KEEP WEAK UNTIL SUNDAY AND A SECOND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL TOWARDS THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND TO ADD TO THE ALREADY EXISTING POLEWARD
ONE, THAT SHOULD SUSTAIN A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
CONSIDERING THIS ELEMENTS AND TAKING PROFIT OF A FAVORABLE HEAT OCEANIC CONTENTS UNTIL FRIDAY LATE
, SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION TENDENCY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NNNN

[euro6208]

09S EUNICE 150128 0600 13.9S 64.5E SHEM 65 974

Equivalent to a category 1 on the SSHS...

[talkon]

09S EUNICE 150128 1200 14.2S 64.8E SHEM 85 959

Now equivalent to a cat 2

[euro6208]

Forecast calls for a 125 knots category 4 in the middle of the Indian Ocean...

REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 65.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 622 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE
REVEALS THAT TC 09S HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND DEVELOPED A VISIBLE
12NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
ON RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES WITH VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AGREEING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE WHICH ARE HELD SLIGHTLY LOW DUE TO CONSTRAINTS
IN THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS
INCREASED IN INTENSITY BY OVER 3O KTS AND 2 DVORAK T-NUMBERS,
SIGNALING THAT TC EUNICE HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS, EXPECT TC 09S TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO
THE BUILDING NER. ADDITIONALLY, INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN-PHASE WITH THE VWS AND WILL BE FUELED BY
CONTINUAL GOOD OUTFLOW AND CONDUCIVE WARM WATERS. BEYOND TAU 72,
EXPECT THE SYSTEM’S TRACK TO BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND GAIN A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT AS THE NER ELONGATES AND REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG.
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG 20 DEGREES SOUTH, EXPECT MILD WEAKENING
AS THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEGINS TO WANE WITH TC EUNICE BEGINNING
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DIAMONDRA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Impressive Eunice, the forgotten cyclone...

[euro6208]

RAW T up to 6.6...

[euro6208]

09S EUNICE 150129 1200 16.2S 66.9E SHEM 115 937

Category 4 cyclone on the SSHS!

[euro6208]

2015JAN29 140000 6.1 939.6 117.4 6.1 6.5 7.1 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 12.24 -77.06 EYE 21 IR 78.9 -16.42 -67.09 COMBO MET7 22.5

RAW 7.1!

[euro6208]

JTWC reporting 7.0...Will it get upgraded to a Category 5?

TPXS12 PGTW 292048

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE)

B. 29/1930Z

C. 17.23S

D. 67.32E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET YIELDS A 6.0 WHILE PT YIELDS A 7.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/1519Z 16.65S 67.17E SSMS
29/1650Z 16.72S 67.17E MMHS


LEMBKE


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JAN 2015 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 17:26:58 S Lon : 67:27:20 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 921.2mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +7.4C Cloud Region Temp : -79.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.7T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 136km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.7 degrees

[euro6208]

09S EUNICE 150130 0000 17.7S 67.7E SHEM 140 918

Now a category 5 cyclone on the SSHS.

Second so far for the South Indian this season.

[euro6208]

Incredibly rare to see a cyclone of this strength in the SIO.

ADT is up to 7.4 or 152 knots. RAW is 7.5 or 155 knots!

[euro6208]

Forecast calls for peak of 150 knots.

REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 68.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED 31NM EYE. A 292311Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE WELL DEFINED CENTRAL CORE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE SHARP CONSOLIDATED NATURE OF
THE CYCLONE. TC EUNICE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY BELOW A POINT SOURCE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IN ADDITION, TC
09S IS TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
GRADIENT PROLONGING ITS EXPOSURE TO SSTS GREATER THAN 26C. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ENABLING TC EUNICE TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24 TO A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS.
BEYOND TAU 24 TC 09S WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS THE EAST AS THE NER REORIENTS TO THE NORTH.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 09S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

radial outflow of this cyclone is just superb.
when was the last time we got 2 cat 5 in this basin in one year???

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Last year we had Bruce and Hellen (though JT says it was 250 kph)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice is now officially the most intense tropical cyclone in terms of wind speeds in the South-West Indian Ocean at 240 km/h (130 kts) 10-min sustained, which would equate to about 150-180 kts 1-min sustained. It is also the third-most intense in terms of pressure, at 900 hPa, only behind Gafilo and Chris-Damia.