Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hello from Crested Butte. Flurry fest out there. Finally seeing white stuff fall from the sky!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Hello from Crested Butte. Flurry fest out there. Finally seeing white stuff fall from the sky!

I LOVE Crested Butte and am so jealous. My family has vacationed there every summer and some winters since the early 1970's, but I haven't been in the last few years.

[Portastorm]

Hello from Crested Butte. Flurry fest out there. Finally seeing white stuff fall from the sky!

Bring some back to Texas with ya!

[Ralph's Weather]

I put out a forecast for the first time in a week and things are really uncertain beyond this weekend. I expect Monday to be pretty cold and another cold shot around Wed or Thur. The impacts of the mid week system are highly uncertain with the models currently showing very little precip with it around here though past runs have had more precip.

[ndale]

Any thoughts on this quote from Texas Storm Chasers facebook page:
"Last summer we started talking about El Nino and the hope that it would bring Texas lots of precipitation and cooler weather this winter. Unfortunately it now appears that El Nino will not develop at all. We're in a neutral pattern between a La Nina and El Nino and we should stay there into the spring."

[gboudx]

Any thoughts on this quote from Texas Storm Chasers facebook page:
"Last summer we started talking about El Nino and the hope that it would bring Texas lots of precipitation and cooler weather this winter. Unfortunately it now appears that El Nino will not develop at all. We're in a neutral pattern between a La Nina and El Nino and we should stay there into the spring."

Here's Page 280 of the ENSO thread where it's been discussed a bit.

[Portastorm]

Any thoughts on this quote from Texas Storm Chasers facebook page:
"Last summer we started talking about El Nino and the hope that it would bring Texas lots of precipitation and cooler weather this winter. Unfortunately it now appears that El Nino will not develop at all. We're in a neutral pattern between a La Nina and El Nino and we should stay there into the spring."

I don't know about projections for spring but over the course of the last 90 days (since November 1st) a few areas of Texas have seen slightly above normal precipitation with the rest of the state at normal or slightly below. Even a week Nino across all quadrants of the Pacific would have probably caused greater positive anomalies in the state.

[orangeblood]

It appears our - EPO and - AO won't last long....not good, not good at all ladies and gentleman !! With a + EPO and + PNA like that, blowtorch is coming!! This winter has been one of the more frustrating ones I can remember

[Yukon Cornelius]

If we don't get any significant precipitation here in Wichita county before summer, we are going to be in major trouble. All of our lakes are already sitting at around 18-20% capacity. The cloud seeding didn't see any improvements and with stage 5 restrictions in place we are forced to pretty much drink recycled sewage water. This whole area was really counting on El Niño this fall and winter and we see how that went. Hopefully some change in the weather happens soon or I don't know what will become of this area.

[wxman57]

It appears our - EPO and - AO won't last long....not good, not good at all ladies and gentleman !! With a + EPO and + PNA like that, blowtorch is coming!! This winter has been one of the more frustrating ones I can remember

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

Good! Come over to the dark side! Resistance is futile... (combo Star Wars & Star Trek)

I still don't see anything to get any really cold air (i.e., cold enough for snow in D-FW or Austin/San Antonio) for the next several weeks. Flow across Canada is too zonal. The giant low in the Gulf of Alaska refuses to budge, and the ridge over western Canada is too shallow to bring any cross-Polar flow southward into the Plains. Without very cold air in Canada (and/or a good snow pack to our north) it's going to be hard to get any snow across most of Texas (except the panhandle). There probably isn't time enough for a significant pattern change before the first week of March.

[Tireman4]

It appears our - EPO and - AO won't last long....not good, not good at all ladies and gentleman !! With a + EPO and + PNA like that, blowtorch is coming!! This winter has been one of the more frustrating ones I can remember

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

Good! Come over to the dark side! Resistance is futile... (combo Star Wars & Star Trek)

Wait a minute. Wait just a dadgum minute. You cannot do that. I am throwing a flag on the play. That is a fifteen yard penalty on the illegal use of Sci Fi lingo.

[Ralph's Weather]

It appears our - EPO and - AO won't last long....not good, not good at all ladies and gentleman !! With a + EPO and + PNA like that, blowtorch is coming!! This winter has been one of the more frustrating ones I can remember

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

Good! Come over to the dark side! Resistance is futile... (combo Star Wars & Star Trek)

I still don't see anything to get any really cold air (i.e., cold enough for snow in D-FW or Austin/San Antonio) for the next several weeks. Flow across Canada is too zonal. The giant low in the Gulf of Alaska refuses to budge, and the ridge over western Canada is too shallow to bring any cross-Polar flow southward into the Plains. Without very cold air in Canada (and/or a good snow pack to our north) it's going to be hard to get any snow across most of Texas (except the panhandle). There probably isn't time enough for a significant pattern change before the first week of March.

Agreed that things do not look good for cold if the current set of models verify and even worse it looks pretty dry also with NW flow. Looks like NW North America will stay cold but that cold will be directed towards the Great Lakes unless we can get some real blocking going somewhere. I sure hope that we start seeing a shift soon to a more active pattern.

[dhweather]

EXHIBIT A in why you should NEVER trust models beyond 3 days out.

Texas getting drier with each run. Go from 3+ inches in 10 days to less than one half inch.

27 JAN 12Z 10 day RTP




28 JAN 12Z 10 day RTP




29 JAN 12Z 10 day RTP



30 JAN 12Z 10 day RTP

[dhweather]

SHOCKING!!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

I am starting a project on snow in Northeast Texas. For today I collected snowfall data from COOPs across Northeast Texas within the SHV office area since July 1999. (I was going to include some Northeast Texas FWD COOPS, but their data was lacking so I decided to leave them out.) Here are the areawide averages I calculated by month:

Nov .01"
Dec .07"
Jan .59"
Feb .74"
Mar .10"
Apr T
May T
Annual 1.57"

The highest monthly snowfall that I came across was 12.5" at Clarksville in Jan 2000. A quick look at the data shows an average of around 2.5" annually along I-30, 1.5" along I-20 and 1" south of I-20.

My end goal is to analyze the set-ups leading up to winter storms in Northeast Texas so I have started by trying to identify as many winter storms as possible that have affected this region. I will report back with anything interesting I find along the way.

[JDawg512]

I wouldn't jump on the bandwagon for doom and gloom regarding the ENSO cycle. The SOI running index continues to stay on the negative side and I don't see that changing anytime soon. We may be in ENSO neutral but I find it hard to believe that it will go positive and move towards a La Niña pattern. Despite what some are saying, I firmly feel that we are in a multi-year cycle favoring El Niño and that is good for at least average rainfall for us.

As far as winter, I also agree with others on here that it doesn't look too good for winter precip in this part of the state. Once Valentines Day passes I'll be done with winter and will join the dark side but only to a point. Nothing higher than 85 degrees at least till May....

[Yukon Cornelius]

Alright guys I'm done with this years winter, or lack there of. I'm actually ready for spring and my hops sprouting. Sprouting hops means that much closer to wet hop homebrew!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hello from Crested Butte. Flurry fest out there. Finally seeing white stuff fall from the sky!

Bring some back to Texas with ya!

Unfortunately, i may.... to Amarillo

[somethingfunny]

I haven't trusted the long range maps and charts showing snowy patterns for us, I'm not sure why I'd trust long range maps and charts now showing a warm and dry pattern for us.

That said my dog's coat sure seems to think winter is over. Fur is coming out in clumps beginning last week. -_-

[Texas Snowman]

Hope Joe is right - a wetter California should mean some storms moving across Texas.



Joe Bastardi: "@BigJoeBastardi http://Weatherbell.com Saturday Summary will discuss the wetter spring I think for Cal, the reasons, along with the cold Feb-Apr we have."