Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Hey NDG. Well, I am sure you are bundled up trying to stay warm in Buffalo. Nice picture of frozen Lake Erie.

Just to let you know,, it is 40 degrees currently here in at my home and may drop down to the mid 30s by sunrise. Highs today in the upper 50s. So, NDG I guess it is safe to say you are getting all the winter.and plenty more for the rest of us. Have a great time up there and safe return back home!

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS finally gets to the real cold stuff deep into Florida. Of course its 276 hours but let's see what happens or whether it will be a bust:

[StormingB81]

I will believe it when I see it..lol How many times has the models said it was going to be cold. I dont ever in recent years remembering a winter with no freezes yet. I mean even last year when we had all that record heat we still had out freezes.

[psyclone]

we haven't had any meaningful freezes around my neck of the woods since 2010. And I don't think we're going to get one this year. time is quickly running out as freeze frequency begins to drop rapidly after mid Feb..Tampa's latest freeze on record was March 5. The long range models (all of them) are basically useless. Just like in tropical season they'll offer something of interest and either drop it in subsequent runs or keep delaying the event. But Spring won't be delayed or denied. The sun angle has been rising for more than a month now and it is paying dividends in the form of longer days, shorter nights and everyday...an increasing ability to modify arctic airmasses that dare to enter our region. Average temps have bottomed and are now on the rise.

[asd123]

There appears to be growing model consistency of major cold and possible snow for Florida next weekend into early the following week. Teleconnections appear to be unfavorable, but who knows, the forecast for teleconnections haven't been all that accurate lately. ECMWF is not on board though, but this model's long range has not been good at picking up trends. GEM has been bitterly cold, but no snow. GEM model has not been good at all in my opinion, so I'll look at it for entertainment purposes.

The GFS in my opinion did better in the long and shorter range; only time will tell what will really happen. Who knows, this cold event might just come into fruition and save our winter!

Below I've posted some highlights of this cold forecast:

All images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:

Southeast snow GFS: (has been appearing on several GFS runs now)



GFS 2/8/15


GFS 2/9/15


GEM 2/7/15

[HURRICANELONNY]

GFS and any model related to it is good for sh-t past 72hrs in my book. Believe me by next weekend it i'll be in the 70's down here.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS has the cold still and is bringing the timeframe in some. Of course as members have pointed out, it's so far out there, you can't believe it just yet.

1AM temps below looking rather chilly across Florida, certainly looks like it would result in a widespread freeze for much of the state by 6AM.

[StormingB81]

If it comes true and it gets to be 20* it might as well snow right...LOL

[TheStormExpert]

Until the good 'ol Euro shows it, it is not worth anything whatsoever.

[StormingB81]

You keep saying Euro but Euro was A LOT wrong for the nor'easter so I mean does it really matter what the Euro says?

[TheStormExpert]

You keep saying Euro but Euro was A LOT wrong for the nor'easter so I mean does it really matter what the Euro says?

Yes I know, but every model makes a mistake here and there. Just when it comes down to the GFS which has been notorious for making mistakes every other run it seems you have a hard time buying into it when it shows something that has not happened yet.

[StormingB81]

But that I believe GFS in this run or any run this far out. I mean we havent even really had a freeze all winter but it wants me to believe next weekend it will be like 20*.....nope

[psyclone]

extended outlooks are showing cooler and wetter than normal conditions overall...if anything that would seem to imply unsettled weather with fronts in the area rather than a big cold outbreak. The GEM map posted above that shows 22 near Ft Myers... let me make a not-so-bold prediction...not happening.

[northjaxpro]

Currently at 31.2 degrees. This is only the second freeze measured here all month, and just the seventh overall this Fall/Winter season. It was a perfect radiational cooling situation this morning as well and we have plenty of frost as well.

This will be a beautiful day with sunshine and max temps in the mid 60s. As for the long range models, I am not trusting anything beyond 5 days. We will probably get at least one good cold spell in February, but at this point I don't see extreme cold heading in our direction at least through the first week of February.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Is this the upgraded GFS or the same old GFS that slammed S.FL. with atleast 5 hurricanes last year.

[FireRat]

30 for extreme south Florida...now that's an eye opener! No matter even if its just bogus, wow...something to watch in coming days. We should all pay attention to the future model runs, the trend is our friend, sort of speak

Has been consistently 40s or low 50s for morning temps at my locale. Right now it's a brisk 52, will we top 70? my take is if we don't rise above 60 by 11 AM we won't!

[gatorcane]

The GFS has backed off on the extreme cold for Florida and it has done so the past several runs. Also, the ECMWF keeps the cold far to our north. That said, it does look like maybe some slightly below to below normal temps over the next 7-10 days across Florida.

Meanwhile the models are relentless for our friends up to the north across the Northeast as both these models show shot after shot of arctic air straight from the north pole ushering in frigid conditions and dangerous wind chills for millions of people. I was looking at the windchills and am seeing readings as low as the -20s this morning across some locales with strong NW winds not to mention blowing snow likely starting late tomorrow into early next week as another snow storm impacts the region.

We are fortunate here in Florida to not have to deal with those conditions.

[NDG]

Yes very fortunate for us to live in FL.
I am back at home after spending 6 days in the frozen tundra of western NY, brrrr!
It was a nice scenary and experience for a change, but their brutal cold weather day after day gets old really quick. Mud everywhere on the streets and sidewalks after they spray the salt on them, on public places the floors are white from the salt carried in on the bottom of the shoes from people. A sunny day does not lasts more than one or two days out of the whole week and those are usually the coldest days. On my flight back tourists coming to FL started cheering when we took off saying good bye to the snow and cold, lol.
Regarding our wx over the next few days I don't see any major changes, if the NAO was to tank well into the negative stage then I would be expecting major changes, but none of that on the horizon.

[Sanibel]

Mild winter here so far.

[StormingB81]

Sanilbel..It is odd..last year we were breaking record highs all winter long HOWEVER, we were getting the freezes...this year we are much cooler while not cold cold..I mean we had quite a few chilly days but not freezes so far.