Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Heat miser is warming up for his victory lap. The PV is a bit too far east for us Texas folk this winter. Core of the cold is further east, which is what was really predicted.

[horselattitudesfarm]

:uarrow: Thanks for shedding light on that. I've always wondered how places like Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota can sometimes pick up so much in the way of snowfall being so far away from moisture sources.

I'm a sincere winter weather enthusiast and I've picked up some knowledge over the years that I've spent here. But few days go by that I don't look at the posts here and feel that compared to most of you folks on this forum, I'm a bit clueless. I'm afraid that I rarely have anything meaningful to contribute to the conversation other than "Go get them team!"

I could be partly wrong but, air molecules have a dewpoint temp or a temp where the molecule will turn into water. This is for every molecule. Now, while air molecules in these regions may be drier than say around the GOM or the pacific, If these molecules encounter an area where there is alot of rising air where the molecule cools to the point where it becomes a droplet and voila!

Basically, its the rising air which is responsible for creating moisture in the atmosphere in areas where there isnt a body of water etc

To clarify so there is no confusion, 'air molecules' are actually around 78% Nitrogen, 20.9% Oxygen, .04% CO2, 1% Argon, and and avg. of .4% H20. The water molecule is the molecule of meterological concern when talking about Dewpoint, and is the temperature at which the phase change from gas to liquid occurs and water molecules 'leave' the atmosphere through condensation. Decreasing pressure and temperature of the air molecules as they rise lower the dewpoint meaning the air has less capacity to hold moisture, helping to create the precipitation that occurs more in those northern states. There may be more to it than that also, but I wanted to make sure other people don't think other molecules 'turn' into water. Otherwise, a good discussion.

[Ralph's Weather]

I would keep an eye out for some freezing drizzle across North Texas Thursday morning. The low levels will be below freezing in many spots though we will be saved because the moisture looks to be very shallow.

[Yukon Cornelius]

My area has a low of 24 forecasted Wednesday night/Thursday morning and drizzle. Wouldn't that be frozen drizzle since the low is forecasted to be well below freezing?

[Portastorm]

I'm just going to throw this out there as I have minimal factual support to back up my opinion ... but I think we will see a pattern change around Feb. 20th or so ... maybe a little after. The existing pattern of a ridge-trough over the CONUS cannot last forever. In winter these patterns can and do lock in for a while but they usually don't last consecutively more than a month or so. I see one of two things happening: either the CONUS pattern relaxes to a more zonal flow which would mean drier and warmer for us in Texas OR we will see the mean trough position retrograde further west, placing Texas closer to the base of the trough and in a better location for cold air and storminess. The CFSv2 hints at this development. We'll see what happens.

[Ralph's Weather]

My area has a low of 24 forecasted Wednesday night/Thursday morning and drizzle. Wouldn't that be frozen drizzle since the low is forecasted to be well below freezing?

That is what I expect. If any moisture makes it into your area it will be in the form of freezing drizzle. This is one of those sneaky events that could cause major issues especially on the elevated roads in the Metroplex. Though in your case where temps will be in the mid 20s all surfaces would ice pretty easily.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm just going to throw this out there as I have minimal factual support to back up my opinion ... but I think we will see a pattern change around Feb. 20th or so ... maybe a little after. The existing pattern of a ridge-trough over the CONUS cannot last forever. In winter these patterns can and do lock in for a while but they usually don't last consecutively more than a month or so. I see one of two things happening: either the CONUS pattern relaxes to a more zonal flow which would mean drier and warmer for us in Texas OR we will see the mean trough position retrograde further west, placing Texas closer to the base of the trough and in a better location for cold air and storminess. The CFSv2 hints at this development. We'll see what happens.

I agree. The patterns usually lock in for about 4-6 weeks and around that time, i think the pattern will flip again. It may be a bit late for a Texas storm though

[srainhoutx]

I'm just going to throw this out there as I have minimal factual support to back up my opinion ... but I think we will see a pattern change around Feb. 20th or so ... maybe a little after. The existing pattern of a ridge-trough over the CONUS cannot last forever. In winter these patterns can and do lock in for a while but they usually don't last consecutively more than a month or so. I see one of two things happening: either the CONUS pattern relaxes to a more zonal flow which would mean drier and warmer for us in Texas OR we will see the mean trough position retrograde further west, placing Texas closer to the base of the trough and in a better location for cold air and storminess. The CFSv2 hints at this development. We'll see what happens.

I agree. The patterns usually lock in for about 4-6 weeks and around that time, i think the pattern will flip again. It may be a bit late for a Texas storm though

How quickly we forget March 2nd, 2014. For the life of me I would have never believed that major Ice Storm could happen that late in the year. Remember a degree or two colder down here in most of Harris County and we would have had a devastating 1 inch Ice Storm that would have dropped trees and left far more without power than what we experienced.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Thats true Last year was something else though. Had a potential of maybe 5 ice storms here lol

[Tireman4]

I'm just going to throw this out there as I have minimal factual support to back up my opinion ... but I think we will see a pattern change around Feb. 20th or so ... maybe a little after. The existing pattern of a ridge-trough over the CONUS cannot last forever. In winter these patterns can and do lock in for a while but they usually don't last consecutively more than a month or so. I see one of two things happening: either the CONUS pattern relaxes to a more zonal flow which would mean drier and warmer for us in Texas OR we will see the mean trough position retrograde further west, placing Texas closer to the base of the trough and in a better location for cold air and storminess. The CFSv2 hints at this development. We'll see what happens.

I agree. The patterns usually lock in for about 4-6 weeks and around that time, i think the pattern will flip again. It may be a bit late for a Texas storm though

How quickly we forget March 2nd, 2014. For the life of me I would have never believed that major Ice Storm could happen that late in the year. Remember a degree or two colder down here in most of Harris County and we would have had a devastating 1 inch Ice Storm that would have dropped trees and left far more without power than what we experienced.

Oh yeah......I totally forgot about that....

[hriverajr]

I'm just going to throw this out there as I have minimal factual support to back up my opinion ... but I think we will see a pattern change around Feb. 20th or so ... maybe a little after. The existing pattern of a ridge-trough over the CONUS cannot last forever. In winter these patterns can and do lock in for a while but they usually don't last consecutively more than a month or so. I see one of two things happening: either the CONUS pattern relaxes to a more zonal flow which would mean drier and warmer for us in Texas OR we will see the mean trough position retrograde further west, placing Texas closer to the base of the trough and in a better location for cold air and storminess. The CFSv2 hints at this development. We'll see what happens.

FWIW Bastardi is alluding to the second scenario.

[Tireman4]

Guys, it does snow in March... ( Yeah, we had sleet here in March last year)...

1932 March 10-11 0.8


http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm

[wxman57]

I plotted 15-day meteograms for both Dallas-Ft. Worth & Houston to see if the 12Z GFS was forecasting anything interesting. In short - nope. Very little precip and no significant cold. A light freeze in the Dallas area on Thursday is all. 70s this weekend. Keep in mind that these are raw 2m temps from the model.

Dallas-Ft. Worth:




Houston:




And the 384-hr outlook for 2m temperature anomalies from the 12Z GFS aren't promising for winter weather in Texas.

[Portastorm]

Hey, that's good news to me! I've been reading some Twitter traffic from pro mets who do medium-range forecasting in the CONUS and they are all laughing about how horrible the GFS has been lately in the 11-16 day period. Since it's showing warmth I can only assume that means in reality it will be colder. Whoohoo!

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

Hey, that's good news to me! I've been reading some Twitter traffic from pro mets who do medium-range forecasting in the CONUS and they are all laughing about how horrible the GFS has been lately in the 11-16 day period. Since it's showing warmth I can only assume that means in reality it will be colder. Whoohoo!

Unfortunately for you cold-lovers (or winter weather lovers), the Euro is indicating a quite similar pattern. Here's the 12Z ECMWF forecast of 850mb temperature anomalies. Quite warm across western Canada at day 10:



And here's the predicted 500mb anomalies for day 10. Flow pattern just isn't there that would give Texas any significant winter weather.

[Brent]

Sure they get a cold pattern wrong but will nail a warm pattern...

[Tireman4]

Sure they get a cold pattern wrong but will nail a warm pattern...

It shows 90's four weeks out..."Hey folks, this is nails. This model (The NAVY) is the one to watch...Tee hee

[wxman57]

Sure they get a cold pattern wrong but will nail a warm pattern...

I wouldn't say that, but I would say that any prediction of impending cold and/or winter weather in Texas needs to be backed up by something more than "the models are forecasting warm, they're often wrong that far out, so the real outcome must be cold".

What is going to break down that persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska or shift it much farther west, pumping the ridge up over the Pole vs. into western British Columbia?

[Tireman4]

Sure they get a cold pattern wrong but will nail a warm pattern...

I wouldn't say that, but I would say that any prediction of impending cold and/or winter weather in Texas needs to be backed up by something more than "the models are forecasting warm, they're often wrong that far out, so the real outcome must be cold".

What is going to break down that persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska or shift it much farther west, pumping the ridge up over the Pole vs. into western British Columbia?

A front. Well, ok laugh, but is that not what finally broke down the High Pressure of Death in 2011?

[wxman57]

Sure they get a cold pattern wrong but will nail a warm pattern...

I wouldn't say that, but I would say that any prediction of impending cold and/or winter weather in Texas needs to be backed up by something more than "the models are forecasting warm, they're often wrong that far out, so the real outcome must be cold".

What is going to break down that persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska or shift it much farther west, pumping the ridge up over the Pole vs. into western British Columbia?

A front. Well, ok laugh, but is that not what finally broke down the High Pressure of Death in 2011?

The front was the result of the pattern change, not the cause.