2014-15 SHEM Season

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jaguarjace
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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#41 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Feb 05, 2015 2:46 pm

Another Subtropical Depression Monitored by the Brazil Navy.
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PART TWO - WEATHER ANALYSIS AT 051200
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 25S046W WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HPA MOVING TO S/SE AT 10/15 KT WITH
HIGH CHANCE TO EVOLVE TO SUBTROPICAL STORM DURING FEB 06. ESTIMATED POSITION AT 061200 UTC – 31S043W.
TROUGH 27S044W, 25S041W AND 31S037W. HIGH 1024 44S040W.
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) 02N020W, 02N030W, 00N040W AND 00N050W WITH 3/4 DEGREES WIDE.
https://www.mar.mil.br/dhn/chm/meteo/prev/meteoro/boletiming.htm

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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#42 Postby euro6208 » Thu Feb 05, 2015 7:33 pm

spiral, look what is forecast to be around your backyard according to GFS...

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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#43 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 08, 2015 9:15 am

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Re:

#44 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 09, 2015 6:46 pm

spiral wrote::uarrow: CMC 4 systems in the region :lol:








They had 7 systems total in the southern hemisphere :lol:
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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#45 Postby euro6208 » Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:06 am

The australian region looks very quiet. None has developed so far. I think Typhoon Mekkhala and Typhoon Higos has stolen the energy...
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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#46 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Feb 12, 2015 9:33 am

euro6208 wrote:The australian region looks very quiet. None has developed so far. I think Typhoon Mekkhala and Typhoon Higos has stolen the energy...

Kate? Bakung?

Yes indeed inactive yet there are 2 storms that formed actually

But that moment you realize that the WPAC is much more active than the Australian Region :roflmao:
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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#47 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:06 am

Another low pressure system in the South Atlantic.
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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#48 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:14 pm

Tropical Cyclone LAM has formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#49 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:42 am

WOW, two Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclones!
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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#50 Postby euro6208 » Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:23 am

:uarrow:

Yes...

Lam is a category 3 while Marcia a category 4 on the SSHS...

Still impressive though back to back major cyclones...
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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#51 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:21 am

Satellite timelapses of Lam and Marcia:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzzMJMvyuxA[/youtube]
Credit: JMA / NOAA / NESDIS

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2S7jcpzYdfo[/youtube]
Credit: JMA / BoM / TheWeatherChaser
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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#52 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 22, 2015 8:28 am

Just 2 month left before the southern hemisphere seasons ends...any new tropical cyclones forecast to develop besides 90S?
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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#53 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:19 am

GFS Model: Nathan in the Western Australian region and Pam crossing Vanuatu first week of March.
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ECMWF and CMC models both agree having a low in the vicinity of Vanuatu on March 04, 2015.
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If the name Pam is deemed similar to Lam, then the standby name Pili would be used.
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#54 Postby PurpleLemonBurrito » Thu Feb 26, 2015 7:00 pm

Will there be a Hurricane Alfred this season!??!?!
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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Mar 01, 2015 3:55 pm

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WOW
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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#56 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:54 am

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m1Rypuf42U[/youtube]
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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#57 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:00 pm

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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#58 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Mar 04, 2015 9:15 am

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GFS shows a cyclone in the AUS

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875 MBAR!!!!!!!!!! HOLY COW!!!!!!

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Yes, that's an 8. I've never seen such a strong system on a model run.
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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#59 Postby euro6208 » Wed Mar 04, 2015 9:41 am

:uarrow:

Triple ouch for Vanuatu

:eek:

Could this be the SPAC's version of Super Typhoon Megi and Haiyan?
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Re: 2014-15 SHEM Season

#60 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:22 pm

12Z long-range GFS model has a low intensifying off the Qld coast before moving southwest over land.
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Last edited by jaguarjace on Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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